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Central PA - Fall 2021


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16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Nice hit this AM.  about .20". 59 degrees.    Could be quite the rainy day. 

Terrible forecast yesterday with the timing of today’s showers.

First, it was showers mainly after 2 pm, then mainly between 11 & 1 pm.

What did I wake up to at 7 am in Marysville….Rain!

It does work out for me today because the main precip shield has almost moved through already. I need to get my Smoker started for my small family holiday gathering today. I’m smoking a Turkey and some ribs!

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4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Terrible forecast yesterday with the timing of today’s showers.

First, it was showers mainly after 2 pm, then mainly between 11 & 1 pm.

What did I wake up to at 7 am in Marysville….Rain!

It does work out for me today because the main precip shield has almost moved through already. I need to get my Smoker started for my small family holiday gathering today. I’m smoking a Turkey and some ribs!

I agree.  I was going to say something but I do not want to rant on the NWS too much.  They were about 4 hours behind even with last evenings zones.   Not sure up north your way but I suspect it rains on and off down here all day with a line of storms possible later.  Lots of rain coming North East from WV. 

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10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A warm September is starting to take a hit.  Still just model forecast though. 

There’s still a warm period in front of it, and we won’t know until late in the week what the EC and CMC will do during that time period.

What’s more likely, +8 or -8?

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6 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

There’s still a warm period in front of it, and we won’t know until late in the week what the EC and CMC will do during that time period.

What’s more likely, +8 or -8?

I think either has little chance.   We are -4.5 as of today.  Verbatim Sept will end on a fairly decent negative departure from the GFS. High's in the low 50's Sept 19th (I think) and only one day above normal on the whole run.  But not sure we get to -8. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Feeling more and more enthusiastic after Sept.

EC and CMC still leaning towards letting the bad guys win, and the CPC 8-14 day outlook is still 50% chance of above normal for pretty much all of PA, so it’s not all good news.

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30 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

EC and CMC still leaning towards letting the bad guys win, and the CPC 8-14 day outlook is still 50% chance of above normal for pretty much all of PA, so it’s not all good news.

Even if we split it mid way and have "normal temps", its better than the hot GFS from a few days ago I think.  Sunny and low 80's is quite nice for Sept :-).   I did not look at the EC but CMC has one day about 85 at MDT over the next 10. 

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4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Is your lawn finally green once again after all of this rain?

I was wondering this too — Bubbler, Cashtown, anyone else in that area, is the drought officially over now? 

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