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CP 3 consecutive months of 10"+ and can we exceed the 3 month 2011 total of 34.43"?


wdrag
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September second dawns with NYC having been doused with ~7.2" of rain from the remnants of IDA, resulting in death and major flooding in the NYC metro area. September normal rainfall is about 4.31".  The target is 10" for September, which is possible and would be a first time in the 150+ year history (POR back to 1869) of CP record keeping.  AND, iffff we get to 10", can the 3 month total in 2021, exceed the 3 month ASO 2011 total of 34.43"?  There may be opportunity, dependent on the latter half of December steering flow. 

Have not checked other 3 consecutive month totals for CP in the database, so there may be an even larger value somewhere in there. 

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On 9/2/2021 at 6:15 AM, wdrag said:

September second dawns with NYC having been doused with ~7.2" of rain from the remnants of IDA, resulting in death and major flooding in the NYC metro area. September normal rainfall is about 4.31".  The target is 10" for September, which is possible and would be a first time in the 150+ year history (POR back to 1869) of CP record keeping.  AND, iffff we get to 10", can the 3 month total in 2021, exceed the 3 month ASO 2011 total of 34.43"?  There may be opportunity, dependent on the latter half of December steering flow. 

Have not checked other 3 consecutive month totals for CP in the database, so there may be an even larger value somewhere in there. 

we need just normal precip the rest of Sept to reach 10"...2011 holds the three month record...

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11 hours ago, uncle W said:

we need just normal precip the rest of Sept to reach 10"...2011 holds the three month record...

Yes...  looks a little drier than normal through the 17th, after, all bets off...   So anything we get this week in CP adds to the 7.23" so far.

GEFS starting to show more and more TC options. The one in GMEX-HAT around the 8th-9th is not for us, I dont think,  unless abrupt upper level changes develop with the approaching Great Lakes trough middle of next week. So not counting on that but monitoring.

After the 17th might be something that allows trop PW this far north, but it seems it will have to come from GMEX. Added CPC week 3-4, issued once weekly on Fridays. 

Screen Shot 2021-09-04 at 6.51.17 AM.png

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18 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The 1960s were the good years with lower humidity

IIRC, the NYC reservoirs were down to 2-3 weeks supply when the 5.54" deluge arrived on 9/21/66.  Might have been a real horror show had the drought continued another couple of months.
Ten driest years at NYC (Starting in 1912, trace amounts are shown as 0.005", which added 0.1 to 0.3" to the totals in may records.  The numbers below have those 0.005" days deleted.)
26.10"   1965
32.90"  1964
33.72"  1910
33.84"  1935
34.28"  1963   Only 8.24" in November prevented a new record.  The 4.23" on 11/6-7 was NYC's biggest Nov rain event at the time.
35.30"  1970
35.37"  1885
35.37"  1895
35.44"  1892
35.60"  2001

1966 was running just 0.72" ahead of 1965 for Jan-August.  Then the last 4 months averaged over 5" each and 1967 was 7" AN.  However, it was 1971-73 with 57"/67"/57" that finally refilled the reservoirs.
The 1960s drought began in late 1961, with the last 5 months averaging 2.60".  Then 1962 had 37.15", 20th driest and 5.5" under the 1931-60 norm.

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8 hours ago, tamarack said:

IIRC, the NYC reservoirs were down to 2-3 weeks supply when the 5.54" deluge arrived on 9/21/66.  Might have been a real horror show had the drought continued another couple of months.
Ten driest years at NYC (Starting in 1912, trace amounts are shown as 0.005", which added 0.1 to 0.3" to the totals in may records.  The numbers below have those 0.005" days deleted.)
26.10"   1965
32.90"  1964
33.72"  1910
33.84"  1935
34.28"  1963   Only 8.24" in November prevented a new record.  The 4.23" on 11/6-7 was NYC's biggest Nov rain event at the time.
35.30"  1970
35.37"  1885
35.37"  1985
35.44"  1982
35.60"  2001

1966 was running just 0.72" ahead of 1965 for Jan-August.  Then the last 4 months averaged over 5" each and 1967 was 7" AN.  However, it was 1971-73 with 57"/67"/57" that finally refilled the reservoirs.
The 1960s drought began in late 1961, with the last 5 months averaging 2.60".  Then 1962 had 37.15", 20th driest and 5.5" under the 1931-60 norm.

1966 was my favorite summer of all time (just going by numbers), and was followed by an amazing winter.  I guess that turned things around?

Interesting that the 80s are in there too and a small nod to the early 00s for being dry also.  Funny we went from one extreme in 1982 to the opposite extreme in 1983.

My favorite summers are very hot but dry I hate humidity like the plague

 

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9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

1966 was my favorite summer of all time (just going by numbers), and was followed by an amazing winter.  I guess that turned things around?

Interesting that the 80s are in there too and a small nod to the early 00s for being dry also.  Funny we went from one extreme in 1982 to the opposite extreme in 1983.

My favorite summers are very hot but dry I hate humidity like the plague

 

Actually, there was no 1980s whiplash, just a pair of mistakes in my post, reversing the 8 and 9 in the 7th (tied) and 9th driest.   :P
The dates are now corrected.  

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

slowly but surely...

Raining out here in Wantage NJ without any radar echo our way.  .04 for the day. everything wet. Also, am seeing steady rains entering s NJ from s PA. to me, looks like going to be widespread 0.1-0.7" amounts southern LI down to near I78 between now and 10AM Monday.  

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Central Park hit 40" last winter? I don't know of too many following winters where Central Park doesn't hit 40" again. In fact, I think the majority of winters where Central Park has hit 40" following a year where Central Park did not hit 40", i.e. 2019 - 2020, the following year Central Park hits 40" again. The question is what happens the year after. Wet autumns produce wet winters. 

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7 hours ago, TriPol said:

Central Park hit 40" last winter? I don't know of too many following winters where Central Park doesn't hit 40" again. In fact, I think the majority of winters where Central Park has hit 40" following a year where Central Park did not hit 40", i.e. 2019 - 2020, the following year Central Park hits 40" again. The question is what happens the year after. Wet autumns produce wet winters. 

Central Park finished with 38.6” of snow last winter.

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there hasn't been a really cold winter since 2014-15...2017-18 was cold to start but had a warm February...averaged 36.2...since the 1990-91 winter the average temperature for the Dec thru Feb period is 36.1...last year averaged 36.1...2014-15 averaged 31.7...2010-11 averaged 32.7...2003-04 was 32.4...2002-03 was 31.2...2000-01 with 33.5...1995-96 at 32.3 and 1993-94 with 31.2 were the coldest winters of the bunch and are below the long term average of around 33.6...2001-02 averaged 41.5...2011-12 was 40.5...2015-16 averged 41.0...those were the warmest...

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On 9/5/2021 at 12:20 PM, Stormlover74 said:

That winter sucked and the spring and early summer was hot and dry. It took until August to finally get some good rains

Yeah one of the hotter summers at JFK.  I really liked that the humidity was low that summer.....along with 2010 those were two of the least humid  hot summers I've experienced here.

 

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On 9/5/2021 at 12:20 PM, Stormlover74 said:

That winter sucked and the spring and early summer was hot and dry. It took until August to finally get some good rains

I was also looking at pictures from the three/four day heatwave in April in 2002, that was epic.....the skies were some of the bluest I've ever seen in these parts.  Amazing to have skies such a deep blue during a heatwave here.

 

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On 9/5/2021 at 3:26 PM, wdrag said:

Raining out here in Wantage NJ without any radar echo our way.  .04 for the day. everything wet. Also, am seeing steady rains entering s NJ from s PA. to me, looks like going to be widespread 0.1-0.7" amounts southern LI down to near I78 between now and 10AM Monday.  

nice sunny day today.  Those light rainfall amounts really caused my allergies to act up last night but it was all better today

 

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Through 2 pm, Central Park has picked up 0.22” of rain, bringing the September total to 7.47”. Central Park needs another 2.53” to reach 10” for a record third consecutive month. Since record-keeping began in 1869, 65 (43%) of years saw 2.53” or more in the September 10-30 timeframe. However, 30 (60%) during the wetter 1971-2020 period saw at least 2.53”.

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 2 pm, Central Park has picked up 0.22” of rain, bringing the September total to 7.47”. Central Park needs another 2.53” to reach 10” for a record third consecutive month. Since record-keeping began in 1869, 65 (43%) of years saw 2.53” or more in the September 10-30 timeframe. However, 30 (60%) during the wetter 1971-2020 period saw at least 2.53”.

Don,

Just have to say "Thank you!' for your admirable focus on what actually has happened, as opposed to speculation.

We learn from your disciplined approach, otherwise it is just hand waving.

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