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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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Today is probably one of the warmer days of the week, forecast right around 75°, tonight will be a warm night with forecast lows in the mid 60s.. Tomorrow we should see some clouds and showers as another CF approaches... While the highs (upper 60s, low70s) over the next few days are slightly below average, the lows (low-mid50s) are slightly above average for this time of year Imby..So it should average out to be an average"ish" like week lol

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Wednesday night, colder air will continue to advect into the region
(H850T falling to +7C/+9C) and with synoptic moisture wrapping back
in under westerly flow there will be the potential for lake effect
rain showers off both lakes overnight. Infact, there even could be
some rumbles of thunder as BUFKIT sounding profiles show lake
induced CAPE values of +2K J/KG and equilibrium levels surpassing
30k feet.

Thursday, a passing shortwave still appears like it will disrupt the
lake response during the day which will result in general scattered
showers across the region. Thursday night boundary layer flow
becomes northwest, directing lake effect rain showers southeast of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario overnight.
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3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
Wednesday night, colder air will continue to advect into the region
(H850T falling to +7C/+9C) and with synoptic moisture wrapping back
in under westerly flow there will be the potential for lake effect
rain showers off both lakes overnight. Infact, there even could be
some rumbles of thunder as BUFKIT sounding profiles show lake
induced CAPE values of +2K J/KG and equilibrium levels surpassing
30k feet.

Thursday, a passing shortwave still appears like it will disrupt the
lake response during the day which will result in general scattered
showers across the region. Thursday night boundary layer flow
becomes northwest, directing lake effect rain showers southeast of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario overnight.

Best time of the year. Waterspouts and Football. 

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The timing of
convection is just late enough that diurnal instability will develop
across Central NY by early afternoon just ahead of the line. This
should allow for strengthening storms during the early to mid
afternoon on the eastern edge of our CWA and then heading east from
there. Some of these storms may contain gusty winds and brief
downpours. Strong deep layer shear and linear forcing may support an
isolated damaging wind risk with any short line segments that develop.
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30 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Bring me a winter full of clippers with frequent 3-6” snows and plenty of lake effect snow that oscillates with each passing shortwave that moves through. Absolute best pattern there is.

Agreed, they are the best winters. Really hope everything works out with you son. :(

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2 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Bring me a winter full of clippers with frequent 3-6” snows and plenty of lake effect snow that oscillates with each passing shortwave that moves through. Absolute best pattern there is.

YEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSS!!!!

The pattern you will hear me complaining  in the least...... LOL

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4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I've been thinking about your mom. How is she doing?

She is doing okay, still undergoing immunotherapy every 3 weeks on Friday for the forseeable future. Shes at roswell 1-2 times a week every week. The cancer will never go away, its damage control for the rest of her life. Quality of life varies from day to day.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

She is doing okay, still undergoing immunotherapy every 3 weeks on Friday for the forseeable future. Shes at roswell 1-2 times a week every week. The cancer will never go away, its damage control for the rest of her life. Quality of life varies from day to day.

Really makes you realize how every day is a gift, as we are never guaranteed a tomorrow.

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19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Really makes you realize how every day is a gift, as we are never guaranteed a tomorrow.

This is why I travel and hike so much. Both of my parents can't do what I do every weekend. I treasure each day that I am healthy, especially after what happened to me in January. It can be taken away from you at any moment.

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