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Post-tropical Henri - 8/21 - 8/24 (Landfall 8/22 @ 12:15 pm - Westerly, RI - 25 mph, E 14 mph, 1007 mb)


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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Newman just beat me with the HMON. Funny thing is I believe this model is run off the GFS which of course was on the eastern end of the envelope. Interesting.

 

Looks pretty clear the difference is the western models like the icon HMON Ukie and some Nam members are picking up the upper air low capture and the GFS misses the upper air low capture because it’s too far east.

wonder if the models are latching onto the correct circulation with Henri think the low level and the mid level circulations still are not alighned and are still separate for now causing tracking problems.  

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8 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

If the UKIE happens, some of us will need a bigger boat...

 

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

If the Ukie happens, I feel horrible for those folks in lower Bucks who got flooded out, then got hit by the tornado(es) :(

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NHC intermediate advisory -

Quote
661 
WTNT33 KNHC 201744
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 73.8W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk
* Flushing New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
* New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York
* West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York
* West of New Haven Connecticut

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri.  Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was 
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 73.8 West. Henri is 
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn 
toward the north is expected by tonight, and Henri is forecast to 
accelerate in that direction through early Sunday.  On the forecast 
track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New England by 
late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the 
next couple of days, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane 
by Saturday and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes 
landfall in southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to Sagamore Beach, MA including Narragansett Bay,
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod
Bay...3-5 ft
East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft
North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft
Flushing, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over
eastern Long Island and southern New England Sunday into Monday,
with isolated maximum totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from
Henri will result in flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along
with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river
flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so.  Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and
into the weekend.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri - 8/21 - 8/23 (70 mph, NNW 6 mph, 994 mb)
5 minutes ago, Newman said:

Euro came nearly 100 miles west, rain doesn't make it to EPA but trend is your friend

Will be very interesting to see the 12z EPS members. 06z shifted west towards LI while the OP was still more towards RI/Mass and the 12z run followed suite. If the west trend continues at 12z with the EPS, there's a much more realistic shot of this storm effecting the area with at least heavy rain.

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18Z NAM shifted east again. Wonder if it is picking up on a weaker system? Henri really needs to start getting his act together tonight or the little shot we have is going bye bye. Need a stronger system to get pulled back west. If it stays disorganized, I think we will see a shift back towards the east unfortunately. Debating taking a trip up to CT or LI on Sunday depending where the track narrows.

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 NHC 5 pm Public Advisory (forward motion a little quicker but winds/pressure the same) -

Quote
826 
WTNT33 KNHC 202041
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 73.9W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the south shore of Long
Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, the north shore of
Long Island from Oyster Bay to Montauk Point, from Greenwich,
Connecticut to Chatham, Massachusetts, including Nantucket,
Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the south shore of Long Island
from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point, for the north shore of Long
Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point, and from New
Haven, Connecticut, to west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from west of Port Jefferson
Harbor to west of New Haven, Connecticut, and for the south shore
of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway
Inlet.

A Tropical Storm Watch in effect from Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey,
to west of East Rockaway Inlet, New York, including New York City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Oyster Bay to Montauk Point
* Greenwich Connecticut to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from west of Mastic Beach to East
Rockaway Inlet
* North shore of Long Island from west of Oyster Bay to Flushing
* Flushing New York to west of Greenwich Connecticut
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manasquan Inlet New Jersey to west of East Rockaway Inlet New
York, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri.  Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later tonight or Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 73.9 West. Henri is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn
toward the north is expected by tonight, and Henri is forecast to
accelerate in that direction through early Sunday.  On the forecast
track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or 
southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, 
and Henri is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday and 
be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long 
Island or southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay,
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft
North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft
Flushing, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning 
area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by early 
Sunday.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch 
area on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by early Sunday. 
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning 
area and possible in the tropical storm watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over 
Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated 
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri could 
result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, 
along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate 
river flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so.  Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and
into the weekend.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

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  • Hurricane Agnes changed the title to Post-tropical Henri - 8/21 - 8/24 (Landfall 8/22 @ 12:15 pm - Westerly, RI - 25 mph, E 14 mph, 1007 mb)

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