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Western PA/Pittsburgh Summer Discussion 2021


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By the 1991-2020 normals, our normal high/low since Sunday has been 83/64, which is the highest it goes and runs through the 28th. On the 29th, it goes back to 83/63. Which means... the day when normal temps start dropping is within GFS range.

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18 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Not looking like it.

It really isn’t, but still time for things to change. Models are steadfast on never really bringing a big ridge into this area, but if we’re talking about one rogue day hitting 90 vs. a prolonged heat wave (which I know is also on your wish list), we don’t need a massive ridge when our normal high is 83.

I’m more interested in seeing if our streak of above normal July temperatures adds a 7th consecutive year, or if this is the first July since 2014 that ends up below normal. We’re sitting right at 0.0 through today and the next two weeks figure to be relatively typical for late July, so it really could go either way.

Also, it has rained at my house all 7 days this week. I agree that it’s time for a pattern change.

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5 hours ago, TimB84 said:

It really isn’t, but still time for things to change. Models are steadfast on never really bringing a big ridge into this area, but if we’re talking about one rogue day hitting 90 vs. a prolonged heat wave (which I know is also on your wish list), we don’t need a massive ridge when our normal high is 83.

I’m more interested in seeing if our streak of above normal July temperatures adds a 7th consecutive year, or if this is the first July since 2014 that ends up below normal. We’re sitting right at 0.0 through today and the next two weeks figure to be relatively typical for late July, so it really could go either way.

Also, it has rained at my house all 7 days this week. I agree that it’s time for a pattern change.

You keep saying this, but I never really said I want a prolonged heat wave.  I like it hot in the summer and like hitting the 90s, but I never said I wanted like two weeks of relentless heat.  We had an 8 day streak last year and that's good for me.  This summer is not a scorcher, that's what it's looking like, so if we hot 90 a couple more times, or none at all, it's whatever at this point.  Just want dry prolonged weather now.

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On 7/17/2021 at 10:25 PM, Ahoff said:

You keep saying this, but I never really said I want a prolonged heat wave.  I like it hot in the summer and like hitting the 90s, but I never said I wanted like two weeks of relentless heat.  We had an 8 day streak last year and that's good for me.  This summer is not a scorcher, that's what it's looking like, so if we hot 90 a couple more times, or none at all, it's whatever at this point.  Just want dry prolonged weather now.

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Enjoy!

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41 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Yes, let’s believe the 10 day.  How many times have we seen that forecast this year already?

I mean it’s not like it was hour 384 or just one model or anything, the trend was definitely in that direction for several runs. Euro and CMC still would suggest we have at least two shots at 90 next week, GFS has diverged.

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16 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

Looks like we won’t quite hit 90 this week and then another cool down….

Edit - downtown might, where I’m at they’re calling for 86/87

Looks like a quiet, mostly warm and dry transitioning to cool and dry week ahead, so the only semi-interesting questions would be do we hit 90 and do we finish July above or below normal? I’m taking the under on both (at PIT) as it stands now, though it’ll be close.

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7 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Looks like a quiet, mostly warm and dry transitioning to cool and dry week ahead, so the only semi-interesting questions would be do we hit 90 and do we finish July above or below normal? I’m taking the under on both (at PIT) as it stands now, though it’ll be close.

I like the dry.  I’ll take whatever temps.

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5 hours ago, Ahoff said:

I like the dry.  I’ll take whatever temps.

If there’s a week this summer I’d like to be above average, it’s next week (I’ll be at Deep Creek). But if that’s not in the cards, and it doesn’t appear to be, dry is definitely a bonus. Revisiting your “we won’t hit 90 this summer” comment, it actually hasn’t been far off. Sure, we hit 90 a couple times before the end of June, but I don’t see any way we get there more than once (tomorrow) in July, and even that is very iffy.

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9 hours ago, TimB84 said:

If there’s a week this summer I’d like to be above average, it’s next week (I’ll be at Deep Creek). But if that’s not in the cards, and it doesn’t appear to be, dry is definitely a bonus. Revisiting your “we won’t hit 90 this summer” comment, it actually hasn’t been far off. Sure, we hit 90 a couple times before the end of June, but I don’t see any way we get there more than once (tomorrow) in July, and even that is very iffy.

Yeah, it just felt like it would be one of those summers with very few if any 90s.  I was in Florida all week, so I got my 90s there.

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1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, it just felt like it would be one of those summers with very few if any 90s.  I was in Florida all week, so I got my 90s there.

It’s that, and we still have yet to string together more than 10 days of even 80+. (Which I’m okay with, and on the balance it’s been a summer of normal to just a hair above.)

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
158 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  South central Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  Northeastern Fayette County in southwestern Pennsylvania...

* Until 230 PM EDT.

* At 158 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 7 miles southeast of Mount Pleasant, or 10 miles
  northeast of Connellsville, moving southeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Seven Springs around 210 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Normalville, Acme, Jones Mills, Champion, Indian Head, Donegal and
Seven Springs.
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