tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 15 to 1 seems reasonable. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Yeah. I'd say 12:1 to 15:1. Higher than that...especially 20:1 is reserved more for cold Alberta clippers and lake effect snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 UK and NAM/GFS couldn't be further apart, well inside 3 days no less... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: UK and NAM/GFS couldn't be further apart, well inside 3 days no less... IMO, The Ukie doesn't get the credit it deserves. It's not very good with localized forecasting. But, as a general idea of storm track, it can do really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 euro is not going to look good oh well on to the next storm.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Here's how I'd estimate the ratios to be across the Area: BUF: 12:1 - 16:1 ROC: 13:1 - 18:1 (Depending on enhancement) SYR: 11:1 - 15:1 ALB: 9:1 - 11:1 BOS: 0:1 NYC: 0:1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Euro is looking great? 2 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: euro is not going to look good oh well on to the next storm.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: euro is not going to look good oh well on to the next storm.... Are you sure you're not looking at a map of Virginia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 EURO looks great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Are you sure you're not looking at a map of Virginia? my drunk self is just worried that is all. It is a step toward the nam. 850s trended warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Gives south shore a foot at 10 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, SnowLover22 said: my drunk self is just worried that is all. It is a step toward the nam. 850s trended warmer. Where do you live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 00Z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: Where do you live? Geneva, NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12z: 00z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: 12z: 00z: the shift NW of the southern cutoff can be clearly seen. Binghamton went from 12.4" to 7.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowLover22 said: my drunk self is just worried that is all. It is a step toward the nam. 850s trended warmer. Geneva is looking great. I'd be very leery if I lived south of a line from Ithaca to Norwich to the Albany area. I know we in Central NY are sweating teeny bullets with that ice line moving closer...especially with the lackluster winter we've had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, SnowLover22 said: the shift NW of the southern cutoff can be clearly seen. Binghamton went from 12.4" to 7.5" Geneva is literally in the middle of that swath. If that doesn’t make you happy bro....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Enhanced precip becoming very evident now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Geneva is looking great. I'd be very leery if I lived south of a line from Ithaca to Norwich to the Albany area. I know we in Central NY are sweating teeny bullets with that ice line moving closer...especially with the lackluster winter we've had. i'm not sweating at all cause Im certain that line ain't making it anywhere near me, lol! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Yeah, definitely something to keep a bit of an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Bgm weather must be sleeping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 It's just to progressive, therefore the mix line can only come so far before it gets crushed to the coast once the system passes our Lat! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Geneva is literally in the middle of that swath. If that doesn’t make you happy bro....... Let's revisit this tomorrow. There is time yet for this to trend more NW..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: It's just to progressive, therefore the mix line can only come so far before it gets crushed to the coast once the system passes our Lat! Idk, I've seen mid levels torch pretty quickly. Obviously BL is going to stay plenty cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, SnowLover22 said: Lets revisit this tomorrow. There is time yet for this to trend more NW..... I guess. But you’ve gout a pretty robust HP to the NW. There’s only so far it can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Storm 2 on euro looks big too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: 1.0" qpf and 14" Kuchera ratio for SYR makes sense to me. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Geneva is looking great. I'd be very leery if I lived south of a line from Ithaca to Norwich to the Albany area. I know we in Central NY are sweating teeny bullets with that ice line moving closer...especially with the lackluster winter we've had. We are in the perfect spot for model shapeshifting games...almost square in the middle of snowfall distribution for most runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now