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February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.


John1122
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Now for west and middle folks...there is more after this.  Basically a low spins up the Piedmont.  Verbatim, I am not sure NE TN would even change over.  This is how these overrunning systems normally operate.  One system pushes the boundary just a step further.  Does it happen?  NO IDEA!!!!  LOL.  Just sharing maps...

1041650513_ScreenShot2021-02-15at1_16_43PM.png.f5f7cd8e39107e3d73c79ac7504ffd7d.png

458181586_ScreenShot2021-02-15at1_16_50PM.png.eede60f14ecb7d4e0f396ce1377031c1.png

 

765442289_ScreenShot2021-02-15at1_16_58PM.png.5c13fe651e763ef2a75f58312e7b2c83.png

1977089464_ScreenShot2021-02-15at1_17_08PM.png.0f8c3424f8d07702db0d88d8325107a2.png

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I'm really interested to see how the N stream shortwaves interact with this system. That TPV has blocked that kind of interaction off for our current system. 

I think it was 2018(?) we saw a similar set up with a front end thump to sleet to rain and back to snow but the valley north of 40 never really ever changed over because of CAD up against the upper Cumberland into eastern Kentucky mountains. I ended up with 8-10” where Ober Gatlinburg was mostly rain with temps in the mid 40’s.


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8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


This one digs a couple hundred miles further east which helps us a lot.


.

Yep.  And the comparison loop(just too big to load...Holston???) of the surface pressure locations is much less warm nose and has a tendency to slide and then turn up the coast in the coastal plain.  Really jumps on that first batch of precip and gets it out in front of the low.  

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1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

12z Euro:                                                                                                                                         0z Euro

giphy.gif giphy.gif

 

@Carvers Gap

Thanks.  That is a really good look.  Man...don't know whether to trust this suite of models or not, but that is three straight model suite(0z, 6z, and 12z) which have trended towards that solution.  My guess is that it would trend back NW at some point.  That said, if it trends one more time...money.  Two more times...Atlanta.

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10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

What is that Kentucky?  Also, did the thermals bust or did it just speed up?

precip went NW,  29 now. We have ice but nothing like forcasted just yesterday. Ice have moved all the way into central kentucky. I don't even know if mesonet sites would help in this situation. But it sure isn't over yet....

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1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think there's more wiggle room with this one. No clue how it turns out, but prefer to have the unknowns of those two N Stream vorts rushing in than the giant TPV gyre pulling everything N and W. 

It never made sense to me seeing modeling send a strong system through middle Tennessee only to have the boundary come west for a system just a couple of days later.  That seems to have been an error.  Biggest question is how close to reality is it now?  More changes incoming, IMO.  A front end thump is possible for many in east Tennessee (outside Chattanooga of course).  I didn't think that was possible just a day or two ago.

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33 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

precip went NW,  29 now. We have ice but nothing like forcasted just yesterday. Ice have moved all the way into central kentucky. I don't even know if mesonet sites would help in this situation. But it sure isn't over yet....

The next wave will hit you pretty hard I suspect. Hopefully you get sleet. I'm losing trees again because of damn freezing mist and fog. I never thought I'd see freezing fog get this thick.

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For anyone who wants to see/ discuss, here is the EPS LPs and HPs for the next system:

giphy.gif

 

ands the Means

 

12z EPS MSLPs:                                                                                                                                       0z MSLPs

giphy.gif     giphy.gif

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RGEM sticking to its guns:

18z                                                                                                                                                                  12z

giphy.gif   giphy.gif

 

Meanwhile the 18z NAM is in another world:

 

giphy.gif

 

MA folks seem to think that the NAM did take a step, prior to 48 hours, towards the rest of the models, so I'll hug that idea for now. 

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