A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Final call DAB+ sunday, 5.5 monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 06z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 58 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Final call DAB+ sunday, 5.5 monday Just catching up. Why so conservative on the intial WAA event Saturday Eve ? The main event still has a lit of ups and downs to ride but your call seems legit hopefully on the lower end of the spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 encouraging write up with a reasonable perspective from LOT:"STILL TOO EARLY FOR A SNOWFALL AMOUNT OFFERING, BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DECENT REGION OF DEFORMATION SNOWFALL TOWARDS MONDAY EVENING, THE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (>6") IN THE FORECAST AREA, JUST STILL QUITE A FEW MOVING PARTS TO NAIL DOWN YET." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, Baum said: Why so conservative on the intial WAA event Saturday Eve ? it's very much in line with guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: Final call DAB+ sunday, 5.5 monday Monday lowball imo. Then again that is characteristic for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: Monday lowball imo. Then again that is characteristic for you i 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Slower timing on system seems to be shifting band south on models. Take some good pics for me Hoosier. First call: .7" 1st wave, miss south 3" main event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Slower timing on system seems to be shifting band south on models. Take some good pics for me Hoosier. First call: .7" 1st wave, miss south 3" main event Lowball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: Lowball I'm not so sure 3" in Cary is that much of a lowball. But any guess on amounts is still just a dart throw at this stage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: Lowball My Jerry Taft snowcast magic 8 ball has been working great ever since 2015. Just shake and read. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Cary67 said: My Jerry Taft snowcast magic 8 ball has been working great ever since 2015. Just shake and read. Agreed. And Jerry, never pegged any storm over 6" may he rest in peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 6z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 In case anyone missed the 00z EPS. Have a feeling those purples will expand eastward as models start to pick up more lake enhancement signal. Think models underdoing cold sector QPF still. The Gulf is wide open. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, Baum said: I'm not so sure 3" in Cary is that much of a lowball. But any guess on amounts is still just a dart throw at this stage. Lowball. Shift Alek's call up to Cary then you're fine. But agree, too early to call amounts. There are still too many things that can go wrong on this one, almost as many things that can still improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: too early to call amounts. should have had a final call out 2 days ago 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 6z GEFS . Goth the GEFS and EPS would be a little nicer if they could just shift a county or two north. Overall looking good for those along the IN/MI border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 6z Euro looking solid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 ^ supports 3" call in Cary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Baum said: ^ supports 3" call in Cary. If you're looking at raw QPF and think the 90 hour 6z Euro will play out verbatim, sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: If you're looking at raw QPF and think the 90 hour 6z Euro will play out verbatim, sure. I'm not in Cary. So I don't care. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 11 minutes ago, mimillman said: 6z Euro looking solid Need that track up into Terre Haute or Indy even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Cary67 said: Need that track up into Terre Haute or Indy even better I don't think low track going to come much further north, but I do think QPF is underdone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: I don't think low track going to come much further north, but I do think QPF is underdone. Is slower timing allowing more influence from northern piece to keep it from coming further north? Initially models were showing a stronger northern wave suppressing system altogether but that changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Need that track up into Terre Haute or Indy even better I'm really digging that track. What ratios are expected? Lower at first, higher as the storm moves along? Any lake enhancement/effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, TheRegionRat said: I'm really digging that track. What ratios are expected? Lower at first, higher as the storm moves along? Any lake enhancement/effect? Looks good for you on southside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, mimillman said: I don't think low track going to come much further north, but I do think QPF is underdone. Tone sincere, your post have been good and joe started the thread but you were first to hype this in the medium range thread so it's yours to win Now back your regularly scheduled programming, I fully expect subsidence hell as fgen band stays 8 miles south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Cary67 said: Looks good for you on southside Would prefer not be in the bullseye this far out. This will bounce around a bit. I remember the old "Northwest shift"days all too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Another huge positive, haven't even had to think about posting the eurythmics 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, A-L-E-K said: Another huge positive, haven't even had to think about posting the eurythmics This is the first storm in years you haven’t posted that in a storm thread I think....hence why this one is different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts