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Interior NW & NE Burbs 2021


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3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

I totally agree. Let’s flip the switch and go to fall with these temperatures lately.  The forecast low for tonight is around 65, that is our average forecast high for this time of year.

Yeah, 63/41 is the normal split for KPMG.  I'll actually have to close most of my upstairs windows on Sunday, so weird to have them all just wide open for this long.

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23 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I've come to regret uninstalling earlier this month. Would have really benefited from AC the last several nights.

 

22 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I left my bedroom unit in but didn't use it but maybe should have, probably use it tonight I'm thinking with these dews

Good afternoon, Julian, Irish. One of the personal benefits of being a septuagenarian is that when you get horizontal what blood supply you have left, can only do so much to keep you body temp. comfortable. That might change if I ever become social again. The horizontal part will remain though. As always …

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56 minutes ago, rclab said:

 

Good afternoon, Julian, Irish. One of the personal benefits of being a septuagenarian is that when you get horizontal what blood supply you have left, can only do so much to keep you body temp. comfortable. That might change if I ever become social again. The horizontal part will remain though. As always …

Not gonna lie, I had to Google that LOL

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3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Not gonna lie, I had to Google that LOL

The virtues of the classics, one remembers what septuagenarian actually means....

That said, it is a condition to be avoided, if possible, don't ever fall while in that state, you will regret it seriously.

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

I dunno I kinda like this. Working outside, doing stuff and being comfortable isn't a bad thing and with the price of oil heading north I'd rather not use any if I don't have to.

I locked in my oil price months ago. Sitting outside now in shorts and a t-shirt, I’m not complaining 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

how do you avoid the mosquitoes and the ragweed? I am spraying for both I want to KILL EVERYTHING

 

Ragweed is low around here. 

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3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I dunno I kinda like this. Working outside, doing stuff and being comfortable isn't a bad thing and with the price of oil heading north I'd rather not use any if I don't have to.

No complaints from me, either. Now, if we're still doing this two months from now... yeah. But it was never going to snow or be meaningfully cold on October 15th, so might as well be comfy outdoors. 

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20 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

No complaints from me, either. Now, if we're still doing this two months from now... yeah. But it was never going to snow or be meaningfully cold on October 15th, so might as well be comfy outdoors. 

It must be an aging thing. I could never get enough of the snow and cold but I’m actually enjoying this delayed autumn.

I’m old enough to remember several October snows in this area. October 18, 1972, October 3, 1987 which was actually over a foot in many parts of the Hudson Valley. I especially remember parts of Dutchess having significant tree damage. Probably the closest we’ve ever been to a significant summer snow event at least in my lifetime. October 29, 2011 15 inches IMBY and four pear trees that made the ultimate sacrifice so I could enjoy a rare white Halloween. 
 

That being said this has to be the latest in the season I haven’t even recorded a low in the 30’s. It looks like that will finally happen Monday morning, and I’m okay with this. Like I said earlier it must be an aging thing. The young CP would never have accepted this gracefully. 

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3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It must be an aging thing. I could never get enough of the snow and cold but I’m actually enjoying this delayed autumn.

I’m old enough to remember several October snows in this area. October 18, 1972, October 3, 1987 which was actually over a foot in many parts of the Hudson Valley. I especially remember parts of Dutchess having significant tree damage. Probably the closest we’ve ever been to a significant summer snow event at least in my lifetime. October 29, 2011 15 inches IMBY and four pear trees that made the ultimate sacrifice so I could enjoy a rare white Halloween. 
 

That being said this has to be the latest in the season I haven’t even recorded a low in the 30’s. It looks like that will finally happen Monday morning, and I’m okay with this. Like I said earlier it must be an aging thing. The young CP would never have accepted this gracefully. 

Right, there are always those hyper-anomalous events to look back on, although we still have 5-6 weeks before I start to feel as though time's wasting. Which is maybe part of the reason why I'm taking the prolonged warm season in stride... we have so much downtime in DJFM these days. No need for yet another month of inert gray. Plus, as you say, an early-season snowfall is fun for a bit but hardly worth the destruction and interruptions. Could certainly use a couple frosty mornings to start sweetening up the apples, kicking the foliage into gear, and killing off some of the bugs. 

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Yeah, the amount of bugs during the daytime is still ridiculous, not as bad at night around here for some reason.  Foliage IMBY is shot, about 50% down, if not more, and very lackluster in color but that’s not unheard of here, it must be the extra humidity from the river/wetlands?  I don’t know but I have more meh years here IMBY than not. I don’t remember the last stellar year, maybe 2017?  I’d have to try to find photos. The good news for me though is once I get out of this little hollow the foliage can improve but the park isn’t look too great this far. All the rain since 9/1 has to be a factor here I’m guessing. I am sick of the humidity though but that tends to go hand in hand with warmer falls. 

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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1203 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

...Eastern Pennsylvania/southeastern New York/New Jersey... Despite some early day mid/high cloudiness, latest model output suggests that a pre-frontal corridor of stronger daytime heating across eastern Pennsylvania into southeastern New York may become a focus for the development of modest boundary-layer CAPE by this afternoon. It appears that this will coincide with the northeastward progression of an intensifying southwesterly mid-level jet streak (including 50-70 kt in the 700-500 mb layer), beneath difluent upper flow, where strongest lift may become focused by late afternoon. This forcing for ascent, coupled with the strong deep-layer shear, may provide support for the evolution of an organized cluster or line of storms, which should tend to progress northeastward and eastward through early evening. Although weak lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates will not be optimal, eventually heavy precipitation loading should aid the downward transfer of higher momentum to the surface and contribute to the potential for damaging surface gusts. Given the expected convective mode, the risk for tornadoes remains more unclear, but forecast soundings do indicate that sizable, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs may develop. This may become conducive to the evolution of mesovortices with the potential to produce tornadoes, before outflow becomes more prominent.

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45 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1203 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

...Eastern Pennsylvania/southeastern New York/New Jersey... Despite some early day mid/high cloudiness, latest model output suggests that a pre-frontal corridor of stronger daytime heating across eastern Pennsylvania into southeastern New York may become a focus for the development of modest boundary-layer CAPE by this afternoon. It appears that this will coincide with the northeastward progression of an intensifying southwesterly mid-level jet streak (including 50-70 kt in the 700-500 mb layer), beneath difluent upper flow, where strongest lift may become focused by late afternoon. This forcing for ascent, coupled with the strong deep-layer shear, may provide support for the evolution of an organized cluster or line of storms, which should tend to progress northeastward and eastward through early evening. Although weak lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates will not be optimal, eventually heavy precipitation loading should aid the downward transfer of higher momentum to the surface and contribute to the potential for damaging surface gusts. Given the expected convective mode, the risk for tornadoes remains more unclear, but forecast soundings do indicate that sizable, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs may develop. This may become conducive to the evolution of mesovortices with the potential to produce tornadoes, before outflow becomes more prominent.

FWIW, each run if the HRRR becomes less impressive with the line around here. 
 

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18 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

how do you avoid the mosquitoes and the ragweed? I am spraying for both I want to KILL EVERYTHING

 

I wear jeans and a very thin long sleeve so the skeeters and other stingy things aren't a problem. If your allergies are so bad that you have to spray poisons you should probably move. Maybe somewhere like the desert. You'll get all the extreme temps and shit that's you can take.

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12 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I wear jeans and a very thin long sleeve so the skeeters and other stingy things aren't a problem. If your allergies are so bad that you have to spray poisons you should probably move. Maybe somewhere like the desert. You'll get all the extreme temps and shit that's you can take.

I'm just trying to figure out what's causing it because they hit all of a sudden at 3 in the afternoon and lasted all night.

And today everything was fine, no allergies at all....

I mean WTH is going on lol.

 

About the mosquitoes.....they somehow snuck into my house and bit me on both feet :(  It felt awful

 

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