BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 20 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: That’s definitley true almost all early season lake effect events land up further north than forecasted. Maybe Hamburg can grab a surprise 2-4” tomorrow morning? Yeah, going to be close. I don't really trust the HRRR. It's hitting at perfect time overnight and rates should be pretty strong. Expect snow to develop after midnight even as far west as western NY due to isentropic upglide sweeping across region. WSW winds in blyr with temps just cool enough for lake enhancement (around -6C) will lead to precip maximums to northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Forecast soundings point to mainly snow in these areas, even across Buffalo Metro and at Watertown, except maybe right along the immediate lakeshores. Not out of question that both of these lower elevation areas could see a quick inch, maybe two, of snow that could disrupt the early AM commute on Wednesday. A more middle ground for snow right now though is up to a sloppy inch which is what this forecast will carry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Ocean effect.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 A few twitter meteorologist accounts talking about SSW event and a cold January across the Conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 Despite the cold the last few days Buffalo is still + .8 on the season. With how the rest of this week goes, we will likely be +3-5 again. Not sure how second half of December plays out, but feel pretty confident in above average temps for Dec. I think April and May will be the only 2 months of the year with below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Look at the HRRR just south of kbuf lol It's been consistent to granted it's the LR.. 12z HRRR It's funny how the numbers don't match the colors lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Comparing 6z Euro at 90 and 0z Euro at 96, the storm in the Midwest is slightly flatter and the boundary layer is further south. Bares watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 Can we move those totals a little east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Quite a bit of precipitation on the ARW..It seems the NWS thinks the hi Rez models may be over doing it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 Indexes going the right direction again. The biggest issue is the EPO, the most important index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: A few twitter meteorologist accounts talking about SSW event and a cold January across the Conus. Been reading similar info...starting to get the feeling that the warm January and February might not come to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 RGEM, HRRR, and WRF show 1-3" across Buf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Snow just before Christmas? Would be nice for once lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Snow just before Christmas? Would be nice for once lol Yeah Wolf I don't think the pattern looks that bad. Lots of chances, we have to hit on one. Or it could be wide left twice and then wide right twice and then warm air in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Icon cuts a system on Sunday with some follow up energy Monday, FWIW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Icon cuts a system on Sunday with some follow up energy Monday, FWIW.. And a real nice LES event behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 49 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Snow just before Christmas? Would be nice for once lol The Xmas miracle??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: RGEM, HRRR, and WRF show 1-3" across Buf I’d say that’s 2-4 but it’s still small potatoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 So the GFS doesn't have a follow up wave like the icon, just some light LES on the backside followed by another weak wave with r/s showers and then a Miller B like system on the 17th/18th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Models are a mess. Now gfs shows this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Canadian has a 2nd wave which misses us to the SE, looks like some decent LES from a northern stream disturbance followed by a day 9-10 snow event..lol Always 10 days away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Hi rez Canadian for Wednesday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Models are a mess. Now gfs shows this. That would equate to about 4 to 8 inches area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 42 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Hi rez Canadian for Wednesday.. decent hit for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 GFS is now predicting rain for Xmas eve, literally flipping from the 6z model...the only consistency is the inconsistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: GFS is now predicting rain for Xmas eve, literally flipping from the 6z model...the only consistency is the inconsistency Christmas Eve is still 16 days away lol. They will flip flop for another 15 days with how bad they’ve been this year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 If that HP was positioned a little better we might have a chance lol You can see the 2nd wave getting going to our south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Next system will probably miss south and east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 Euro has Buf missing both waves. Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Congress N Al and TN lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro has Buf missing both waves. Sounds about right. I hunk like you stated yesterday we score on one of these chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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