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wdrag

Wind gusts 46+MPH and spotty damage-power outage 1P-10P Wednesday Oct 7, 2020

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Prior modeling steep lapse rates momentum transfer prompts on the forum, the wind advisory issuance by OKX for LI/se NYS/CT, the marginal risk for SVR by SPC skirting the northern fringe of the forum, all are contributing to this topic.

CAA aloft steepens lapse rates this afternoon as intensifying low pressure crosses northern Maine this evening. Winds at 850 MB will be 40 to possibly 50 knot and so there is a chance to latch onto some of the 40 knot gusts.  Best chance for spotty gusts 46 MPH or greater appears to be se NYS, CT, e LI. Appears to me most of the wind gusts will be 40-45 MPH but gusts 50-60 MPH are possible, especially e LI.  Gust algorithms from the 00z/7 cycle EC, and SPC HREF are generally a bit weaker than the early morning HRRR, tho SPC HREF MAX gusts do offer the potential.  

Evaporating sewd moving showers may add to the transfer.

657A/7

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Trace rain Wantage NJ and mAX g 25 MPH so far. Max non thunder G so far in NYS the past hr.  

KRME: Griffiss AFB / Rome, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KROC: Rochester, Greater Rochester Intl Arpt, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KSYR: Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock Intl Arpt, NY, United States [48kt, 25m/s]

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Several more 40+kt wind gusts ever  closer.

KIAG: Niagara Falls, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KMWN: Mount Washington, NH, United States [48kt, 25m/s]

KPTK: Pontiac, Oakland County Intl Arpt, MI, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KRME: Griffiss AFB / Rome, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KROC: Rochester, Greater Rochester Intl Arpt, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KSYR: Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock Intl Arpt, NY, United States [48kt, 25m/s]

Recent wind damage and hail reports, upstream. 348P/7 post

Screen Shot 2020-10-07 at 3.47.02 PM.png

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Added max gust reports past hour.... probably since 445P. All up to our north. 

KBGM: Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY, United States [44kt, 23m/s]

KELZ: Wellsville, Wellsville Municipal Airport, NY, United States [45kt, 23m/s]

KFZY: Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KIAG: Niagara Falls, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KMPO: Mount Pocono, PA, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KMWN: Mount Washington, NH, United States [48kt, 25m/s]

KORE: Orange, Orange Municipal Airport, MA, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

KPBG: Plattsburgh AFB, NY, United States [44kt, 23m/s]

KPSF: Pittsfield, Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA, United States [46kt, 24m/s]

KPTK: Pontiac, Oakland County Intl Arpt, MI, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KRME: Griffiss AFB / Rome, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KROC: Rochester, Greater Rochester Intl Arpt, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KSYR: Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock Intl Arpt, NY, United States [48kt, 25m/s]

LF

 

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From a NWS resource on another forum: 

Rare October significant severe weather outbreak today 7 October.  KALB airport gusted to 59 Kt and widespread tree damage, trees on cars, houses, shingles torn off, power poles down and other widespread damage.  Wind gusts at some other locations 60 Kt or greater.  Lots of lightning and thunder, too.  Very unusual for October.  
 
Cooling aloft, steep midlevel lapse rates, small hail enhanced downdrafts where boundary layer mean winds 50 Kt or greater.  Anyway, CAPEs <1000 j/kg and in many areas <500 j/kg.  Lots of damage and again, unusual for October 
 
Please go to our NWS Albany Facebook and Twitter accounts for pictures and videos from our followers.

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Wind damage with the line racing through Southern CT.

 

we just had tstorms and hail here on the south shore....it really feels like fall!  We get these kinds of storms in early fall when the ocean is warmer than the air temp

 

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Good evening. It's 8 PM. Adding some more information.  Most of our area has escaped wind advisory criteria it appears, but SVR did affect our CT portion of the forum and a small portion of the NYC forum in se NYS.  SVR reports to the NWS are graphed, and added the power outages as of 8PM and finally the max gusts, past 3 hrsvfor the various thresholds.  Hope this is useful.  Good call on the potential nay others on the forum yesterday.  

 

Screen Shot 2020-10-07 at 7.53.18 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-10-07 at 7.56.12 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-10-07 at 7.57.53 PM.png

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