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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?


John1122
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1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:


What is volcanic winter?


.

Good question. I would like to think it means more aerosols of the kind that would lead to more snow for me, but given my experience with masiello, he probably means it in a strict academic sense that doesn't necessarily mean anything like it. I put it here since I’m not sure how he means it or what it would mean for us, but ya know, I gots to have hope, lol. 

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Holston, all of that sounds bad.  Is some of that good?  QBO at 30mb may be poised to hit positive levels(regarding January) that we have not seen in some time.  It is really high even now.

Honestly I just saw “volcanic winter” and thought: ahh some good banter fodder. 
 

For myself, I just don’t know what I think. Not necessarily just about that tweet thread, but about this winter. I still feel burnt out after all the models showed the epic pattern shifts in the long range last winter only to evaporate as we got closer to verification time. Not sure I am ready for serious speculation yet and the time sink that entails. and to be fair, this whole year has kind of been a drain. 

For my part, at least for now, I’m in a “see where the tropical convection decides to set up,” and go from there mode. 

 

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58 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Honestly I just saw “volcanic winter” and thought: ahh some good banter fodder. 
 

For myself, I just don’t know what I think. Not necessarily just about that tweet thread, but about this winter. I still feel burnt out after all the models showed the epic pattern shifts in the long range last winter only to evaporate as we got closer to verification time. Not sure I am ready for serious speculation yet and the time sink that entails. and to be fair, this whole year has kind of been a drain. 

For my part, at least for now, I’m in a “see where the tropical convection decides to set up,” and go from there mode. 

 

I truly don't understand the warmth around the PV.  Seems like that would split it or maybe it means it is tightening up.

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5 hours ago, PowellVolz said:


What is volcanic winter?


.

Volcanic winter is a frigid winter, that can linger and causes temps to be 3 to 5c below normal, even into summer. It's caused by aerosolized sulfur in the atmosphere from eruptions. Not sure why he's using it in those tweets as I'm not sure what volcanic activity in the last year or two that  was that large. 

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Researchers are notorious for throwing up theory on Twitter with no operational forecast implications.

I read tight polar vortex. That's a mild signal. Maybe I just see everything as warmer than normal winter news.

Some folks were asking/hoping the fire smoke would be a useful aerosol. Probably not enough of it, believe it or not. 

1. Anthony is really good at operational forecasting, but can't share directly, due to his job.

2. Butler is amazing and will share implications occasionally, but only in her own threads.

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On 11/12/2020 at 7:20 PM, John1122 said:

A year ago today we were getting snowfall. It actually was Knoxville's largest event of cold season per WVLT.  

That's wild. My largest event came on Feb 6th, when I received a wet 1.8" of snow. Nothing to write home about, but I was happy to have it at the time

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4 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

That's wild. My largest event came on Feb 6th, when I received a wet 1.8" of snow. Nothing to write home about, but I was happy to have it at the time

A 2 incher hasn't been all that easy to come by for a lot of the forum lately, so that's a happy day of snow. Welcome to the forum, glad you joined and hope you post as frequently as you can.

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Hello! I am new to this forum too and I was looking for some advice. I am not sure if this is the right place to post this, but I could'nt find any irrigation related threads. I am trying to decide between Aeris, Weatherbit and Climacell for integration to weather nodeserver for irrigation. Can anyone guide me in the right direction please?

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Welcome @BrookeM and enjoy the forum. We have a Garden thread. Can anybody help with the irrigation question above?

All I know how to do is kill plants with my brown thumb, lol!

In true banter, I lament the KC Chiefs are once again not on TV here.

On the bright side their defense can't give me a fourth quarter heart attack on TV.

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12 hours ago, BrookeM said:

Hello! I am new to this forum too and I was looking for some advice. I am not sure if this is the right place to post this, but I could'nt find any irrigation related threads. I am trying to decide between Aeris, Weatherbit and Climacell for integration to weather nodeserver for irrigation. Can anyone guide me in the right direction please?

I feel certain that we have some actual farmers on this forum, even if they just lurk some.  @Coach B, is this in your wheelhouse?

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Not sure if this is a true observation with no measuring equipment, so I placed in banter. 

I was on a backpacking trip this weekend in the Smokies.  Saturday night the wind was terrifying.  Everyone in my group was pretty sure someone would be hit by a falling limb or tree.   The most vivid memory I have is the sound.  You could hear what sounded like a jet engine off in the distance.  The sound would get louder as it got closer and then the wind would hit, small limbs falling and could hear the sounds of larger ones in the distance.  Then - it would quieten down for a minute before the next gust.  They came in waves every couple of minutes.  But you knew they were coming because of hearing the approach.  Each "wave" was another "hope I survive it" moment.  Everyone did survive - at least physically.  I doubt anyone of us will ever forget that night.

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Hopefully the Vols show some signs of life tomorrow. Probably nothing short of winning 4 of our potential final 5 can salvage Pruitt in my eyes. I expect it to be 1-4 assuming we get and accept a bowl game. I figure since everyone is eligible this year regardless of record we will probably get an invite no matter how bad we've looked. 

 

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

It's shown some version of that for quite a few runs in a row. It just seems to grown the snow shield with each run. I guess it's technically possible or the model wouldn't simulate it.  I'd probably say it's a 500:1 shot though. 

You are right.  It had a cutoff in the West for days.  Has had at least a couple of cutoffs over TN.  With that big area of blocking over the top, it appears steering winds are minimal.  Almost like a tropical storm under a big ridge.   The end of the 18z GFS run had like 3 lined-up.  Crazy looking stuff.  And agree.

Makes me think we may see a very slow mover at some point....could be rain or wintery.  Not a cutoff, but just a series of systems which move very slowly.  Might even be a realistic flooding threat if not snow.

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