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JTA66

E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2020 OBS Thread

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6 hours ago, RedSky said:

Actual real fall happening this September. 

 

It's 2020, anything can happen. We'll probably see a blizzard and a crippling ice storm to close out the year. (Nov/Dec)

53F / DP 42 

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10 hours ago, hazwoper said:

Anyone take a look at the sky today.  Yeah, we have no climate change issues....SMH

5966F394-955F-430E-A6F9-29FBBA1AC397.jpeg

33EFC600-BE1B-465D-8A02-393F0F9239FC.jpeg

Isn't that the smoke from the west coast fires drifting east (into PA) and hazing the skies if that's what you're talking about?

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2 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

46F here....43F in Pottstown, first time in the 40s in a while.

I felt you whooping it up this morning 'cause I know this is Birds~69 weather. :lol:

I ended up with a low this morning of 50 before it started its trek back up to the current breezy 54 with dp an amazing 43.  Was looking at the hazy, smoke/ash-filled skies this morning too.  Yesterday was a 75/59 hi/lo split.

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Summer (June thru August) climate summary for Western Chester County PA.

  • For the summer months (Jun-Jul-Aug) here in Western Chester County we finished with an average temperature of 73.7
  • This is the 17th warmest summer since 1894
  • Of note the 5 hottest summers were all before 1955 (warmest being the summer of 1900 at 75.8 degrees!)
  • Coldest reading - 44.1 on June 1st 
  • Warmest reading - 92.0 on July 19th
  • Only our 2nd heat wave (3 straight 90+ days) in the last 8 years!!
  • We have had only 10 heat waves in the last 18 years
  • 5 days exceeded 90 degrees this summer - our most in 9 years since the 11 back in 2011
  • Of interest only 4 of the 17 warmest summers have occurred since 1988 and the top 5 all before 1956 and 13 of the 17 warmest summers also occurred prior to 1956
  • Top 5 warmest summers were (1900 - 75.8 / 1901 - 75.0 / 1944- 75.0/ 1955 - 75.0 and 1943 -74.9)
  • Precipitation wise we received 17.63" of rain - average summer months rainfall is 13.16" (+4.49" above avg.)
  • This was the 15th wettest summer on record with the wettest occurring just 2 summers ago in 2018 when 26.29" of rain drenched Western Chesco
  • Finally an fascinating comparison (see attached) that helps highlight the increasing heat island impact at the Philadelphia Airport compared to the more rural observation suburban burbs in Eastern PA where we are noting a decline in 90+ days.
  • In just the last 2 years PHL airport has recording 67 days above 90 degrees (the other 3 sites combined over the last 4 years only 61 days!)
  • With 17 years of records for these locations - Note that over the last 8 years a significant drop in the number of 90+ days at the rural sites compared to the prior 9 years
  • However at the Philadelphia airport - the frequency of 90+ days continues to increase at a fast pace....this disparity is likely to continue as the heat island impact shows little sign of abating
  • image.png.2d760e510d54cc0ea6ade29f54f45157.png

 

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1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I felt you whooping it up this morning 'cause I know this is Birds~69 weather. :lol:

I ended up with a low this morning of 50 before it started its trek back up to the current breezy 54 with dp an amazing 43.  Was looking at the hazy, smoke/ash-filled skies this morning too.  Yesterday was a 75/59 hi/lo split.

I was out early this morning and it was really crisp. It felt great!

Yeah, the sky looks really cool and really weird/creepy at the same time...it's odd for sure. 

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Shaping up to be the first fall in what feels like a decade that isn't going to be hot as hell up through mid October. Got down to 48F last night in Hopewell. 

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A new record low max for September 15th here in Western Chester County PA with a high of only 62.7 today. All-time mark of of 58.0 from 1963 still in tact. Today's double digit negative departure - 1st since May 12th. Likely we will have a below normal month through at least the 21st of the month

image.png.1bb47c47c9311c2c9dcebb92763eaa3c.png

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42F low on 9/16, that may be the coolest reading this early in the season in decades, or does it just seem that way because recent Septembers have been very warm. Thinking the smoke reflecting sunlight over such a large area has something to do with this. In essence a mini example of nuclear winter.

 

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5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

42F low on 9/16, that may be the coolest reading this early in the season in decades, or does it just seem that way because recent Septembers have been very warm. Thinking the smoke reflecting sunlight over such a large area has something to do with this. In essence a mini example of nuclear winter.

 

I was thinking this exact thing yesterday. Also thinking this may  help for a colder/snowier winter? As a Met, how would/could make an accurate forecast under these conditions? I can see them busting high on the temps quite frequently. (not their fault) Right now the sky looks humid as hell out (that hazzy/muggy look) but the DP is 51 and feels great but certainly no blue skies. The "smoke effect". Quite strange.

I think the critters in the trees who usually make all sorts of noise have croaked. Haven't heard them in a while. However my friendly low key grasshoppers are still with us...

Highs over the weekend in the low-mid 60s.....we may see some overnight 30s in the burbs?

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For entertainment purposes only -- looks like last night's Euro takes whatever form in the western Gulf to the VA capes next weekend, then straight up the Hudson valley. The GFS has nada.

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My low yesterday was a "balmier" 59 and I made it up to a rather humid 76.  This morning I was coming off a warmer 68 with dp 66 and then the bottom dropped out as the remnants of Sally passed to the south and the winds shifted, dropping down to 60 but recovering to my current 64, with dp 57, and mostly cloudy.  Will be watching the weekend temps as I saw frost advisories lofted along the NE PA/SW NY border and my tropicals are not going to be happy the next couple days with the progged low temps in the 40s!

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1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

My low yesterday was a "balmier" 59 and I made it up to a rather humid 76.  This morning I was coming off a warmer 68 with dp 66 and then the bottom dropped out as the remnants of Sally passed to the south and the winds shifted, dropping down to 60 but recovering to my current 64, with dp 57, and mostly cloudy.  Will be watching the weekend temps as I saw frost advisories lofted along the NE PA/SW NY border and my tropicals are not going to be happy the next couple days with the progged low temps in the 40s!

I'm setting my bar even higher....30s!

66F / DP 55  w/a mighty fine breeze.

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Just now, Birds~69 said:

I'm setting my bar even higher....30s!

66F / DP 55  w/a mighty fine breeze.

LOL :weenie:

As a sidenote, Wilfred just appeared in the eastern Atlantic so whoever blows up enough to get a name next (probably TD-22 in the GOM), it will be "Alpha".  It is 2005 redux.

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3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

LOL :weenie:

As a sidenote, Wilfred just appeared in the eastern Atlantic so whoever blows up enough to get a name next (probably TD-22 in the GOM), it will be "Alpha".  It is 2005 redux.

Just got Sub-tropical storm Alpha form off Portugal lol. The gulf storm looks like it'll be Beta...

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Getting a forecast low of 39F popping up now which is significantly anomalous for mid September. Just more of the same craziness that has dominated the last decade like major snow in October and record polar vortex in November. 75F Christmas Eve wait for it.

 

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5 hours ago, Newman said:

Just got Sub-tropical storm Alpha form off Portugal lol. The gulf storm looks like it'll be Beta...

Yes!  I literally just got chance to look at what the heck happened.  Alpha went barrelling into Portugal (not even on the NHC map). :blink:  And TD-22 has become Beta  now.  It's been sitting their incubating and waiting for Sally to go away and now it can be a twin, with all the convection and whatnot popping up all over the top of it.

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