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Chicago Storm

August 10 Severe Weather

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While most guidance has been tame for today (Monday), the HRRR and HRRRx develop a fast moving MCS/bow that sweeps across IA/IL/IN this morning into this evening.

Digging into things a bit deeper, while the HRRR has been overzealous and alone on an island numerous times this spring and summer, the solution it spits out is actually fairly plausible in this case.

The main trough and wave is currently diving into the Northern Plains from Canada, and along with it is a solid jet streak. This can all be seen very nicely on water vapor and IR satellite currently. There’s also a very nice power-keg environment out across portions of SD/NE/MN/IA currently as well, where initial development is expected within the next several hours. 4k+ cape, PWATS of 1.50”+, DP’s in the 70’s, a great EML with ML lapse rates ~9C, 50kts shear and the main wave and jet streak moving in.

Should likely see development as the HRRR shows in SD and possibly NE within the next several hours, as capping erodes. The environment mentioned above is supportive of MCS formation, and a damaging wind threat.

Now I won’t go as far as saying the derecho the HRRR/HRRRx have is going to occur across IA/IL/IN, but the setup is definitely supportive of something that could be quite good, as long as everything works out. Along the lines of everything working out...One potential caveat is the activity around MSP currently...Does it slowly fade away as it continues to drift east, or does it develop a nice cold pool and drive more SE, which would greatly affect the threat for some downstream areas outlined in this post.


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And we are on track.

Gonna need a large moderate risk across Much of IA/S WI/N IL/N-C IN/SW MI.


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our office building recently power washed the exterior masonry and now my window is filthy, going to be upset if it ruins the view of a nice shelf later

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Storms congealing now over nw IA and eastern S.D.  will definitely be the ones to watch today as they rapidly move eastward and crash into all the heat and humidity this afternoon.  Gonna be an interesting day.  Will be curious about the new SPC update.  I think the earlier slight risk was placed too far south in MO and IL.

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9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

That SPC outlook still needs some work.


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miss south stink 

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The 12Z DVN sounding has impressive mid-level lapse rates just under 9C/km. Very warm in the low levels, which means capping ahead of it should prevent any junky convection lowering the risk of a bust. 

107263329_ScreenShot2020-08-10at8_19_25AM.thumb.png.df143f9cd73d9bea84cf596cbd255a63.png

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miss south stink 

Not even.

Should be E or ESE until it’s around here.


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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:


Not even.

Should be E or ESE until it’s around here.


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it was a joke about the spc outlook 

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Had been ignoring the models while I did a "quick" swingset project that my wife suggested (it took 22 hours of labor), but I am pretty pumped about the potential for this area. Upstream looks solid, and SPC is in catch up mode. 

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6 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Had been ignoring the models while I did a "quick" swingset project that my wife suggested (it took 22 hours of labor), but I am pretty pumped about the potential for this area. Upstream looks solid, and SPC is in catch up mode. 

 

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3km plays ball now with a nice bow for the metro area

 

looks like 12z hi-res guidance should be bullish across the board

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:


Not even.

Should be E or ESE until it’s around here.


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I was once told on here to follow the 700mb flow to ascertain where a storm complex would generally travel.  As Purdue wx noted we have enough of a cap around northern IL to prevent junk convection.  Derecho possibility anyone?

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I wonder if these earlier storms from this morning in WI and now in ne IA will produce an outflow boundary which could be intercepted by the oncoming line from the Des Moines area  later today to somewhat enhance tornado probabilities in the northern IL region, however small they may be at present thinking.

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13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

DSM on north to Fort Dodge about to get rocked...

393c6508c4ae540c9502502347e03366.jpg


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Wow. Ames-Des Moines is going to have some awesome videos here this afternoon

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