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August 10 Severe Weather


Chicago Storm
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While most guidance has been tame for today (Monday), the HRRR and HRRRx develop a fast moving MCS/bow that sweeps across IA/IL/IN this morning into this evening.

Digging into things a bit deeper, while the HRRR has been overzealous and alone on an island numerous times this spring and summer, the solution it spits out is actually fairly plausible in this case.

The main trough and wave is currently diving into the Northern Plains from Canada, and along with it is a solid jet streak. This can all be seen very nicely on water vapor and IR satellite currently. There’s also a very nice power-keg environment out across portions of SD/NE/MN/IA currently as well, where initial development is expected within the next several hours. 4k+ cape, PWATS of 1.50”+, DP’s in the 70’s, a great EML with ML lapse rates ~9C, 50kts shear and the main wave and jet streak moving in.

Should likely see development as the HRRR shows in SD and possibly NE within the next several hours, as capping erodes. The environment mentioned above is supportive of MCS formation, and a damaging wind threat.

Now I won’t go as far as saying the derecho the HRRR/HRRRx have is going to occur across IA/IL/IN, but the setup is definitely supportive of something that could be quite good, as long as everything works out. Along the lines of everything working out...One potential caveat is the activity around MSP currently...Does it slowly fade away as it continues to drift east, or does it develop a nice cold pool and drive more SE, which would greatly affect the threat for some downstream areas outlined in this post.


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Storms congealing now over nw IA and eastern S.D.  will definitely be the ones to watch today as they rapidly move eastward and crash into all the heat and humidity this afternoon.  Gonna be an interesting day.  Will be curious about the new SPC update.  I think the earlier slight risk was placed too far south in MO and IL.

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