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AMZ8990

Fall 2020 Discussion

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Time to wake this place up after a few days nap.  Looks like LR models are again signaling a cool-off in the East just after ten days(we know the drill when we hear "ten days").  Anyway, I suspect modeling is on to another shot of BN air entering the Lower 48 in the d10-16 time frame - maybe even a bit earlier.

edit: Euro OP has it inside of d10.

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On 8/25/2020 at 11:29 AM, AMZ8990 said:

4 weeks until fall y’all,  We are getting closer!!  Fun fact- in Memphis we’ve had four LA Niña winters since 2010.  3 of those 4 years produced measurable snow days.  1.8in on January 16th, 2018.  2.0in on January 6th, 2017.  And 3.1in on February 11, 2011.  January has been the best winter month for Memphis in La Niña setups over the last ten years statistically. ENSO neutral conditions have favored more December snows with 2 separate systems dropped .9in on December 26th, 2012, and a trace amount on December 30th, 2013.  The daily snowfall record in Memphis of 14.3in also fell during a moderate La Niña on December 22, 1963.  Long story short- La Niña winters are historically good for west Tn.  Soon I’ll crunch some numbers and see how that translates to east and middle Tennessee winters.  

The 1960's were great winters in the Mid-South; Nashville area got some great snows December that year as well. The big boy was on New Years that year that went just to the south of Nashville, we got snow but Huntsville and southern TN got hammered. 

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I saw some 1965 hype, but didn't check snow. Severe wx that spring, lol!

My guess is Memphis and Nashville will do OK this winter. Southeast Tenn will be blanked, or have an upper low surprise. All or nothing, lol!

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7 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

I saw some 1965 hype, but didn't check snow. Severe wx that spring, lol!

My guess is Memphis and Nashville will do OK this winter. Southeast Tenn will be blanked, or have an upper low surprise. All or nothing, lol!

Well, it doesnt take much to be a better season that the last several lol

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We have been fooled once already this season, but the EPS is showing what I consider to be a significant pattern shift over NA with a big ridge holding out West with a low over the Aleutians.  Not wasting much time going into the details.  Pattern change is now within seven days though.  Maybe those CPC maps are on the money.  If so, we have MUCH cooler temps on the way and soon.

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On 9/12/2020 at 6:40 PM, Carvers Gap said:

We have been fooled once already this season, but the EPS is showing what I consider to be a significant pattern shift over NA with a big ridge holding out West with a low over the Aleutians.  Not wasting much time going into the details.  Pattern change is now within seven days though.  Maybe those CPC maps are on the money.  If so, we have MUCH cooler temps on the way and soon.

  Not good news for firefighters out west. 

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14 hours ago, dwagner88 said:

  Not good news for firefighters out west. 

Yeah, coastal states in the West are getting torched, literally.  The recent snows and rain really helped the intermountain West.  It was within about 48-72 hours of getting scary bad there.  The snow storm put a dent in that danger.  Now, does that threat come back in the intermountain West as that ridge rebuilds?  IDK - maybe.  The good things is that the days are getting shorter and temps at high elevation will start to cool off.  For places like California and Oregon, not good at all with very little relief in sight.

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Looks like we may dodge the hurricane rains for the most part. I know MRX was initially showing 2 to 3 inches across the area. I'm actually running BN for the month with only 1.3 inches. Creeks and streams are still over full but it feels almost strange to be getting so many dry days, even though it did rain this weekend. 

MRX also has my highs in the upper 60s late this week. That will feel awesome Friday night after last Friday's humidityfest at Seymour. 

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Some beautiful weekend wx upcoming once this tropical system exits.  TRI is forecasting highs in the 70s with lows in the 40s.  Much different than last Sept where we hit 90+ for roughly 14 days with multiple record highs. We have hit 90 only one time during this Sept.  We are four degrees above normal right now, but that number should come down quickly after today.  

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Last time we had such an active tropical season in 2005, we were basically normal for October and November, slightly BN for December, January was an unrepentant blow-torch that finished +7. February was 3 degrees BN and I had 7 inches of snow during the month. January will probably match this year with how our luck has gone. Not sure if the others will or not. 

That September was much drier and much hotter than this one has been so far. It didn't rain at all until September 15th. It was 4 degrees AN with 7 days in the 90s. We haven't been above 87 this month here and it's rained some. September 2005 didn't see a day in the 40s until the last day of the month. We should get there this weekend. 

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The Weeklies can easily fool me at this time of the year...but that is some crazy blocking in the HB and Greenland area at times during that run.  Looks like the eastern trough amplifies fairly regularly with a few bouts of a ridge rolling through, but popping again out West.  Jeff, feel free to add or subtract from those brief comments....I always look forward to the "Jeff update" on the Weeklies!

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I saw the same. Weeklies do look blocky; however, we still might have to hurry up and wait on wavelengths and other features. If the Canada ridge goes mega-ridge, we are back in that +ABNA summer weather pattern. Siberia is also doing +ABNA things on the weeklies.

Fortunately in October that's not as humid. Temps near normal, but no big trough either. Also, to give fair time, haha...

There are some 16-30 day analogs with blocking and the +PNA and +WPO that go pretty cool. +WPO might be meh in winter; but at these early fall wavelengths, it's actually cold East. Selfishly I'm hoping for the normal/warm scenario. While I love cool mornings, warm afternoons get me more in the mood for fall foliage.

In the relatively shorter-term there's Wilfred/22 for next week. ECMWF favors a track between that of Laura north and Sally south. Caution a 7 day forecast; but, inland storm chasing hopes always spring enternal!

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