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AMZ8990

Fall 2020 Discussion

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European weeklies just went hot again. Core heat is still North. Color me skeptical of four hot weeks here. Let's try two again, like July, otherwise North. 

I'd like to think if we pay our dues in July and August we get football weather on time. However I think we all know the odds. Probably stay pretty warm Sept.

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Saw where the QBO 30mb rose a couple of points during July.  Could be good or could be bad...If it pops positive with a La Nina, that is a warm signal for winter.  OTH, maybe it really hasn't gotten its act together and truly dropped.  Anyway, two straight months w a slight positive trajectory.   I am "hoping" that the stall means we might get a couple of extra months of run in the negative towards the end of winter.

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Hey, if it just gets hot like last summer....We can call this second summer, along the lines of second breakfast.  Why?  Because one summer is not enough for this forum that loves winter weather.  LOL.

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European weeklies came out and are not quite as hot as the Monday issue. They basically sharpened up the North ridge. Too bad for them! Leaves us down South near normal vs the slight above. So far I guess that's encouraging...

Unless the road through fall has that North ridge settling into a SER in Sept/Oct. It does not necessarily have to go that way. The North ridge could just crumble as summer ends. Fingers crossed. Keep that crap out of here, haha!

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Iceman: Tired of summer. Switching to fall. I do like the last few posts on the summer thread. EPS is indeed pushing a cool front through the Midwest to the Mid South. Can we get it all the way through? Probably so in some form.

Looks a little hot and humid until we can get these tropical cyclones pushed out. Laura going west is going to behave like a warm front, especially in August. Midwest system next week may not quite be enough to scour out the airmass. However the 11-15 day period looks a little more encouraging.

European weeklies are quite friendly to a moderating temperatures forecast. Looks at or below normal through about week 3. Gets us past mid-September before any aboves. By then slight above is fine, esp if not too humid.  Except for late August heat, I will try to remember to post mainly in the Fall thread.

Cue up some Ce Ce Peniston. Finally!

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4 weeks until fall y’all,  We are getting closer!!  Fun fact- in Memphis we’ve had four LA Niña winters since 2010.  3 of those 4 years produced measurable snow days.  1.8in on January 16th, 2018.  2.0in on January 6th, 2017.  And 3.1in on February 11, 2011.  January has been the best winter month for Memphis in La Niña setups over the last ten years statistically. ENSO neutral conditions have favored more December snows with 2 separate systems dropped .9in on December 26th, 2012, and a trace amount on December 30th, 2013.  The daily snowfall record in Memphis of 14.3in also fell during a moderate La Niña on December 22, 1963.  Long story short- La Niña winters are historically good for west Tn.  Soon I’ll crunch some numbers and see how that translates to east and middle Tennessee winters.  

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On 8/25/2020 at 12:29 PM, AMZ8990 said:

4 weeks until fall y’all,  We are getting closer!!  Fun fact- in Memphis we’ve had four LA Niña winters since 2010.  3 of those 4 years produced measurable snow days.  1.8in on January 16th, 2018.  2.0in on January 6th, 2017.  And 3.1in on February 11, 2011.  January has been the best winter month for Memphis in La Niña setups over the last ten years statistically. ENSO neutral conditions have favored more December snows with 2 separate systems dropped .9in on December 26th, 2012, and a trace amount on December 30th, 2013.  The daily snowfall record in Memphis of 14.3in also fell during a moderate La Niña on December 22, 1963.  Long story short- La Niña winters are historically good for west Tn.  Soon I’ll crunch some numbers and see how that translates to east and middle Tennessee winters.  

Great info and I may tag onto some of your thoughts.  To echo Jeff, I do like what the LR models are cooking up....anything beats the temps last fall.  La Nina's are definitely a plus the further west one goes, and worse towards the EC.  That said, I think analog packages have really struggled of late.  So, I am beginning to think future winters are going to have a lot of variability within analog packages.   Honestly, if I had to amend my upcoming winter ideas at exactly this moment...I might cool them off slightly if the weak La Nina verifies.  Might go something like normalish Dec, slightly above Jan, very warm Feb in regards to temps.  For now, I will refrain from amending.  That said, a normalish Dec and slightly above Jan will get the job done in regards to temps...just don't want BN precip.

I would normally place weak La Nina at the top of my preferred ENSO state list followed by weak El Nino....Man, after last winter, I am not sure which ENSO state is better.  After watching the IO and the SSTs west of the dateline pretty much eliminate winter, I may be giving those two places more consideration - maybe even top shelf consideration.  The MJO has really driven winter of late.  I "think" if we can get the equatorial western Pacific to cool marginally (without going to a moderate or strong La Nina), we might have some chances.   That region has been causing the MJO to rotate through warm phases during winter.  The IO is a part of that cycle as it sent plenty of energy last winter into that region which caused convection.  If we could get the ENSO region 4 to cool and/or the IO to reduce the amount of energy it is sending eastward....we might not have the MJO cycling so strongly(and multiple times) into phases 4-6 during winter.  I like the weak La Nina being modeled on some LR stuff, if it is west based, because it "might" help us with the MJO.  I realize there are about 1,000 other things that can screw things up...but I may take my chances with a weak La Nina.  Those winters seem to produce a lot of northern stream energy for NE TN.  Weak La Nina winters also have a tendency to produce at least one really severe cold shot during winter, sometimes two.  Hey, a great example of something so minor really messing with NA weather is that area of high(might have been low) pressure that just wouldn't move east of the Urals.  Someone might remember that more clearly.  That little feature absolutely changed the entire hemispheric pattern for the winter.  La Nina patterns are tricky.  They tend to produce cool early winters.  What is tough after that is they tend to flip quite warm...but sometimes the cold returns.  I have often been fooled by a great looking late fall and December pattern during La Nina years...and then the winter goes West and never comes back.  But I agree, western sections should benefit as La Nina winters produce just enough SER to send the "low road" storm tracks through middle TN.

The QBO is a big problem right now as it has not cycled into negative territory strongly and is now potentially signaling yet another double dip into positive at 30mb.  It will be interesting to see how that interacts with a weak La Nina.  That might be a bad combo off the top of my head.  

 

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Looks like some cooling temps in the extended forecast, we will have to see if that holds.  I’m just glad we’re not enduring a torch fest like we were this time last year.  

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European weekly charts are beautiful. Looks like we need to get through next week. I favor warmer ensemble clusters that slow down the front.

Either way I'm in agreement with good times after Labor Day. End of ensembles shows AK ridging. Weeklies both show Midwest to Ohio Valley trough. We take!

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Just for kicks and giggles...the 18zGFS has temps in the upper 30s over the eastern mountains post 300 after a system runs rolls inland.  You know I have though that if a system from the GOM were to catch a cold front coming in around Sept 10th....that would be might cold rain!!!!

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Some pretty strong highs showing up in that time frame as well...1040 on the Euro late in its run in fantasy land.  Euro control is quite chilly at 12z as well.  Would be a nice contrast to last September for sure!

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Models have reeled it into the 6-10 day period. Looks like a Real Cold Front (RCF) tm middle of next week. Get a little break over the weekend. Humidity may rebound ahead of the RCF early next week. Severe weather would be fine by me. Then football weather!

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Last year the first temps in the 40s imby happened September 25th. There's a good shot this year they arrive more than two weeks earlier than that this year.  Last year after those first two nights in the 40s it was another two weeks before they came back.  Through the first 40 days of meteorological fall last year (Sept 1-Oct 10) we had more than 3 times as many days in the 90s (7) than nights in the 40s (2).  Normally the highs fall from around 81 to around 70 and lows from the upper 50s to around 50 during that time frame.  I'm all in for getting to enjoy high school football in good weather.  So far its rained and been extremely humid the first two games and looks to rain again next Friday.  Game 4 should be great football weather though. 

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I have a good feeling we will have a fall this year. 

European weekly charts (like ensembles) are a little slower on the cooler air settling in later next week. However they keep early season football weather around longer than previous runs, and longer than the CFS does.

Keep in mind October is typically warmer than normal in La Nina years but November is then cooler than normal. Correlations are weak. Just noting in case October is warm, it does not necessarily last.

Second half of winter is a different story, but let's enjoy fall first.

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1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

I have a good feeling we will have a fall this year. 

European weekly charts (like ensembles) are a little slower on the cooler air settling in later next week. However they keep early season football weather around longer than previous runs, and longer than the CFS does.

Keep in mind October is typically warmer than normal in La Nina years but November is then cooler than normal. Correlations are weak. Just noting in case October is warm, it does not necessarily last.

Second half of winter is a different story, but let's enjoy fall first.

Honestly, I am game for a nice September and then a warmish Oct through mid-Nov.  That might give us a colder start to winter, allow for a thaw, and then maybe steal a cold shot in late Jan/early Feb in the middle of warm wx.

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And now the CFS came around to the Euro weeklies with 2-3 BN temps weeks. 

I do like a warm October for fall foliage. Hard to get in the mood if it's too cold. Cool nights are great of course. Warm afternoons just make the day!

Then for winter, hopefully we get some snow and Southeast skiing. 

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The big cold front still seems to be a go per the GFS. It's very impressive, looks like next Wednesday daytime highs will be in the 50s in the western 2/3rds of the valley if the GFS isn't too cold right now. GFS is throwing out lower 40s along the Plateau next Thursday morning.

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Hopefully it makes it. I'm starting to get worried that it is going to get hung up on the western edge of the Atlantic high. A few days ago it was plowing through on both the Euro and GFS, but it seems to be trending to want to dump more west now on both. :thumbsdown: boo 

At least it looks like a certainty we get a mini humidity reprieve this weekend. 

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And the 06Z GFS and both Ensembles hang up like the ECMWF. Do you know what happened? Meteorologist (me) promised / jinxed football weather, lol!

Actually trouble could have started all the way upstream in the Western Pacific. Typhoons going west instead of recurving. Korea is getting slammed. US trough goes Central instead of East.

Naturally the ECMWF picked up on this 48 hours before the clumsy GFS. Please do not re-post the picture. Thanks!

Haishen.thumb.PNG.3ce800f8f59e4fc3d540db947ca64db8.PNG

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Nah...no jinx.  Yeah, noticed those trends yesterday morning.  They are very similar to last winter.  Models dump cold west after an original false push eastward.  But hey, it is not winter and I like seeing anomalous cold in the pattern early.  Last September, the entire country was baking during Sept and Oct.  Changing wavelengths will shake up the pattern...and those changing wavelengths appear to be occurring a bit early.   It is possible that modeling just jumped the gun a bit.  Wouldn't be surprised to see the cooler air dump eastward at some point shortly after the head fake time frame.

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About 4 days in a row now the mods have pushed the cool down back a day. I’m sure climo will catch up eventually but that cooler than normal look we were getting is fading unfortunately.


.

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The Para GFS still wants to swing the trough through. Not saying it's right, but was reading the AFDs from Grand Junction this AM (never hurts to dream of cool and snow, right? lol) and they seem somewhat skeptical of the Euro's cutoff solution (not throwing it out for sure though). Maybe this system flip flops in the 5 day window and turns out a little more progressive? It's 2020, so probably not, but I guess it is still on, at least, the edge of the table, that the front might get more of a push. 

I'll take any damage high latitude energy can do to that Atlantic High. 

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It will eventually come through, but might be limping and weak. That kind of cold anomaly in the Plains will usually bleed southeast even this time of year.

My biggest gripe is the awful evolution of the trough overall. Not only do we get robbed of a true cold front, no severe set-up in the Midwest. Could it be any worse?

Actually I should not ask it's 2020, lol!

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European monthly charts are classic La Nina, except a little better shot at cold Jan vs Dec. Verbatim that's great for a chance at snow. Jan > Dec.

Feb-April annihilate Dixie Alley.

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European monthly charts are classic La Nina, except a little better shot at cold Jan vs Dec. Verbatim that's great for a chance at snow. Jan > Dec.
Feb-April annihilate Dixie Alley.

Last part as in severe weather?


.
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7 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

European monthly charts are classic La Nina, except a little better shot at cold Jan vs Dec. Verbatim that's great for a chance at snow. Jan > Dec.

Feb-April annihilate Dixie Alley.

I've been gradually but steadily having stronger suspicions that things would start looking like this.  This is the first time we've had a decently -PDO and what appears to look like an increasingly decent La Nina since 2012 and before.

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