Mr. Kevin Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Hi Carver. I have a question if you can answer. Anthony masiello posts alot on Twitter. He said something about 120E standing wave that may get ignited and start moving. You have any idea what he means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 3 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said: Hi Carver. I have a question if you can answer. Anthony masiello posts alot on Twitter. He said something about 120E standing wave that may get ignited and start moving. You have any idea what he means? I went back and looked at his posts on this...sometimes his posts are tough for me to decipher. From what I can gather, that region has been promoting a SE ridge - that MJO area has been a thorn for a couple of winters. He made a correct call back in Oct that the SER was going to lock in. Best I can gather is that he is saying that region in the western Pacific will now begin to interfere with the signal which has produced this monster EC ridge. Lots of debate on what the MJO is about to do. Modeling has definitely trended away from a strong ridge pattern(after next week) to more of an uncertain mix of signals. I mean really we have had a standing wave over the EC for several days in the from of a ridge. I think his post is basically saying that is about to change later this month. Good find. Anyone else is free to jump right in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 4 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said: Hi Carver. I have a question if you can answer. Anthony masiello posts alot on Twitter. He said something about 120E standing wave that may get ignited and start moving. You have any idea what he means? Pretty reliable person on Twitter....One could probably connect what Masiello and Webb are discussing. We have seen plenty of head fakes this fall with almost every head fake resulting in a western trough and record cold there. However, the MJO in conjunction with changes in blocking at high latitudes "might" be signaling that the next outbreak will be further eastward. Whether that is in the center of the country or here in the TN Valley forum area...I don't know. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Modeling is definitely not there yet I should add...the 12z EPS control has the path towards a colder EC. Modeling has been slowly becoming murkier. I have generally found that when modeling goes a bit "haywire" during later fall and/or winter....really cold air is entering into NA. Again, I think it is way too early to say where it goes or even that it is a certainty that cold is coming. The very LR stuff out there right now is hinting that early to mid Dec may get cold. I would be down with that since my winter forecast would be in good shape - I actually didn't change it. Just am rolling the dice and staying with my original ideas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 The Euro Weeklies certainly hinted that high latitude blocking may well form and push storms into the "low road." Lots of moving parts right now, and highly doubt any modeling has this nailed at this range. Much of what is being discussed is in week 2 and even week 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Lots of late night content for those early morning risers...the 0z GFS is less on board with Webber's comments from earlier today(reversal of heights in AK) BUT there does seem to be an Aleutian low showing up fairly consistently. During the past few winters, that has usually set the stage for what meager winter offerings which we have scored with...and I mean meager. That low tends to pump the EPO/PNA ridge (even if temporarily), and forces an eastern trough. One can see that pretty clearly after d10 with the 48 hour 500 trend on Tropical Tidbits. Big banana high over the top, and that would be an EC storm signal past 300. But as a friend of mine would say...but is it right? No idea! LOL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Carver, the 0zgfs is hinting at a decent trough in 7-9 days here. Not sure if that's at all related to what HM has been saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Yeah, that is the GFS and yeah that is a LONG WAY out there...but that run should wake a few folks up from their long summer naps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, that is the GFS and yeah that is a LONG WAY out there...but that run should wake a few folks up from their long summer naps. 7-9 days isn't that far, but I guess it is in the south lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Just now, Mr. Kevin said: Carver, the 0zgfs is hinting at a decent trough in 7-9 days here. Not sure if that's at all related to what HM has been saying. Yeah, Jeff hinted at a post-Thanksgiving cool down. Those are several really good sources. What happens after d10 would be a complete reversal of our current pattern(at least temporarily). That said...every, single time that has been shown this fall actual verification put the tough out West. There seems to major model bias almost universally to dumping cold eastward and reverting back westward as reality approaches. But some of the d10+ looks have been interesting to say the least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, Jeff hinted at a post-Thanksgiving cool down. Those are several really good sources. What happens after d10 would be a complete reversal of our current pattern(at least temporarily). That said...every, single time that has been shown this fall actual verification put the tough out West. There seems to major model bias almost universally to dumping cold eastward and reverting back westward as reality approaches. But some of the d10+ looks have been interesting to say the least. If its anything related to what HM is referring to, then the trough should be more east imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Only because we have had next to nothing to talk about will I give the LR GFS any air time...(LOL) but what is being depicted on that run is the beginning of winter for us. No idea if it verifies. Modeling has been hinting at a flip for a few days. The GFS is world renown for jumping into the deep end a bit too quickly. One of the better runs of this early season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Mr. Kevin said: If its anything related to what HM is referring to, then the trough should be more east imo Agree. I trust Jeff the most. Maybe we can get the Chattanooga area some snow this winter as payment for his work! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Just now, Carvers Gap said: Agree. I trust Jeff the most. Maybe we can get the Chattanooga area some snow this winter as payment for his work! Let's get the jonesboro ar area some also. With all due respect, I think HM and webber the best out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Only because we have had next to nothing to talk about will I give the LR GFS any air time...(LOL) but what is being depicted on that run is the beginning of winter for us. No idea if it verifies. Modeling has been hinting at a flip for a few days. The GFS is world renown for jumping into the deep end a bit too quickly. One of the better runs of this early season. I think if the standing wave is igniting, then the pattern should switch up sooner or later. Regardless, HM was interested about it, at least for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Mr. Kevin said: Let's get the jonesboro ar area some also. With all due respect, I think HM and webber the best out there. I think La Nina really favors Arkansas quite a bit. I like Jeff because he doesn't Twitter hype or talk cryptically. Plus, he is a met for our region where those two don't work our area(no disrespect to them). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Have to hit the sack. Let's hope we see more of the runs which are similar auto the 12z EPS control and 0z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I think La Nina really favors Arkansas quite a bit. I like Jeff because he doesn't Twitter hype or talk cryptically. Plus, he is a met for our region where those two don't work our area(no disrespect to them). I agree Carver....with warm weather just like your area. ice is more likely than snow for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 I can't believe it actually happens but the long range Euro control showed +PNA -NAO/-AO in December. I'd be stunned if that came to pass, especially the NAO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Not sure I can add much to the Masiello discussion. Looks like tropical convection is going to be quiet for a while after the TCs in the Indian Ocean die off at least according to the 0z Euro. And I think that aligns with what y'all said above last night. 12z GFS is a little more optimistic about later development of TCs in that area, so I guess we'll see how that plays out. The normal trouble areas for us during winter look pretty quiet right now, but I'm not sure if current wavelengths translate tropical influence the same ways they will mid Dec - early March. Webb was also wondering whether or not a solar flare would interfere with any attempt at a -AO. -NAO this winter, but there no follow up on it yet, and it has been 10 days. Educational exchanges on that tweet thread too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 12z GFS again showing some very significant blocking at high latitude. Oddly, the Euro(as John noted last night) appears to have caught some changes before the GFS. It has been my experience(that even though it has a very bad cold bias), when in shoulder season the upgraded GFS tends to catch shoulder-season pattern changes and lock on. I should also add that the GEPS has also been early on picking out this potential change. Ensembles sometimes are a little slow to catch pattern changes, because they wash them out. That said, we want to see the changes begin to show on the ensembles now as the timeframe gets closer during the next few days. The trend seems to be every so slightly towards a significant cool down after Thanksgiving or right around it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 LOL. Watch, we will track this pattern change and it will turn out to be only a passing front...remember that from the last two winters? But nah, I think we have a shot here at some colder weather. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Don't shoot the messenger but, well, yuck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 1. The post Thanksgiving cold looks brief now. Combo of MJO and NWP. 2. The solar flare means go to Alaska and chase the Aurora. Single flare doesn't mean much more. 3. If we go into split flow after Thanksgiving it could be cloudy. Please no! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 39 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: 1. The post Thanksgiving cold looks brief now. Combo of MJO and NWP. 2. The solar flare means go to Alaska and chase the Aurora. Single flare doesn't mean much more. 3. If we go into split flow after Thanksgiving it could be cloudy. Please no! Man, you know TN football has gone into the crapper when I am on here talking weather during football season on a Saturday. Kind of appreciate the cancellation today so as not to have to watch sub-par football. If they take our basketball season and we deal with cloudy and 50 all winter...going to be a grumpy bunch of posters! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Let's go a head and issue a Slight Risk for Grumpy Bunch of Posters. Upside is Moderate but maybe we can still salvage basketball. Actually the ensembles are Enhanced Risk already. Cancelled the cold, other than brief fronts with near seasonable cold. Guess just go with the weeklies. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 I think 2020 has beat the grump out of me. Smiling and redirecting punches is all I have left, lol. But I'm sure by Jan 28, if we are staring down a hr 240+ pattern change, I will find a grump recharge. Some of the usual suspects on wxtwitter suspects have already started the Ural high could = a SSW train. I can't really see anything that looks that promising, other than a displacement of cold and 50 mb heights over AK, the Bering Sea, and Siberia. So, pretty much what we saw last year with displacement that would ultimately end in a reconsolidated and stronger SPV. We will see how it goes this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Agree with Holston above. Nothing encouraging here https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/glbcir.quick.shtml where I check for pressure and heights. Arctic is locked up. All weekly products are a blowtorch as well. Eh, I'll take sunny at any temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Yeah, I think we are gonna have to be really wary of any advertised pattern flip. At some point, it will happen. That said, we are on year 3 of a very similar pattern during late fall/winter which displaces cold air into the northern Rockies. They absolutely got hammered in wester WY this past weekend. They get snow, but that was like a Sierra Nevada storm for them. I think we will get some passing cold shots. I am just about ready to write-off December through at least Dec 20th. If I do, you can thank me when the models flip cold the next day. There is a part of me that says modeling is mishandling the pattern after Dec 1 as blocking is notorious for causing snafus in modeling. That said, I just don't see many cold outbreaks on the horizon. Honestly, this is how moderate to strong LaNina's work - very few chances if any. I still think we get a window during December(maybe right before Christmas) and then another during January. But I will echo my winter forecast idea remarks, there are going to be long stretches with next to zero threats IMO. All of that said, modeling is notoriously fickle. It can change in the drop of a hat. I am not really discouraged at this point, because this is no surprise at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 The12z CMC is what we need to be hoping for and the 0z GEPS ensemble. Pretty much the "less bad" scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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