Carvers Gap Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 12z update....Pretty stout PNA ridge and Greenland block showing up on ensembles now - GEPS and EPS in particular. The Euro operational has a pretty massive ridge late in the run. Looks like middle and western areas of the forum are looking at the remnants of the hurricane in the GOM later in the weekend and into next week. Definitely some interesting(and sadly dangerous for the Gulf States) things to watch in the coming days. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The unknown Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Midday models are definitely showing signs that things are finna get interesting whether it will result in cold or storminess or both is still in question. One thing that looks encouraging is the blocking that models are showing. Hopefully it’s not a head fake like last year and a sign of things to come. Right now it looks to have promise at least temporary with multiple frontal passages showing up on guidance after the 13th (Oct.). But it’s all in the trend so now I guess we analyze and wait and see. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 To echo The Unknown, the GEFS and EPS are showing both a Pacific and Atlantic in favor of an eastern trough. Whether the mystical NAO can go that negative remains to be seen. LOL. Always seems to weaken as we get closer. Verbatim that is a big block forming around d7-8 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 In the long-range, but the first little taste? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The unknown Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Wow is all I can say about the midday models. They are showing blocking all across the high latitudes.They are literally showing the opposite of what January 2020 looked like. We haven’t seen blocking signals that strong in a good minute. I’m really hoping we can get this pattern to be a reoccurring theme this winter because if so buckle up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The unknown Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 If all the blocking does indeed happen hopefully we can see it persist enough to keep the polar vortex weak because we don’t need it ultra strong like last year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 EPS has been "backing-off" the sustained eastern trough for the past couple of runs. Both the GEFS and GEPS have a trough over the Aleutians which the EPS does not. We have seen this dance many times. If the EPS wins this "mini-battle," it would be a rare win during shoulder season but not unprecedented by any means. We have seen this type of head fake many times during the past couple of years(trough east...only to go west), and has already occurred once this fall. It would be interesting to know what is causing that nearly universal error in modeling. Now, I am not saying a trough doesn't come east. I think that happens, and then holds for about a 3-4 days. However, differences emerge after that in regards to the Aleutians after d10. The past three runs of the EPS have been slowly diverging from the Weeklies solution on Thursday. Now, the GEFS and GEPS are not there yet. Normally, I take all comers against the EPS...but during shoulder season, the EPS is not a model that I share a foxhole with, but I rarely discount it. It has "won" too many times to count. That said, the EPS solution right now is slightly suspect as there is a strong EPO ridge and blocking over Greenland, and the thought goes into the northern Rockies. Not sure that teleconnects well, but the lack of Aleutians trough might all for that. With several storms cutting through the Plains, there might be room for severe weather. The 6z GEFS has a trough in the East and also over the Aleutians. For now, I still lean with a trough holding in the East, but it much less certain than a few days ago. If this was winter, I would go with the EPS and not think twice. The EPS has also had problems with not seeing cold in the East during fall. So, lots in play. Happy football Saturday, everyone! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Give me that 12z GFS run in December or January....whew. Chilly. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The unknown Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Carver I completely agree I can’t wait for that chilly crisp air to return. It’s been a great fall so far and hopefully we can do enough damage to the polar vortex in the next couple of weeks to sustain a cold pattern especially in early winter. One thing I like seeing is that good build up of snowpack being depicted on models for Canada. If we can keep that going then the cold shots down the line will definitely have a harsher tone to them. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Looks like a blend of the GEFS and EPS from Sunday would have been money. Initial trough this weekend, followed by a brief trough out West, and then a shallow trough following in the East. Looks like some really nice weather though on the days which it is sunny. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Mainstay looks like some sort of trough over the Aleutians. I think we need to again cast a wary eye on any type of sustained blocking over Greenland. It certainly could happen, but recent modeling seems to have a bias for AN heights there in the LR only to modify duration quickly as reality approaches. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted October 20, 2020 Author Share Posted October 20, 2020 This is off topic a bit but none the less. There is a meteor shower tonight, the Orionid meteor is its name. best time for viewing will be between midnight and dawn, with the most meteors per hour coming around 5am. So if you guys and gals are up tonight, check it out. The meteors will come from the east 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Hopefully Epsilon can bring us another shakeup to the N Hemisphere pattern a few weeks down the road. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 I’m enjoying our weather ATM though. Warm afternoons and cool nights are nice. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Playing Woodlake GC in Tazewell on Friday. Should be some beautiful views. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Yes this weather is simply perfect. Looks to continue for several days (except maybe Saturday) as all global models slow down the Big Front. Only the ICON is still cold before Halloween; but, it's an outlier. Looking for more leaf viewing this weekend. Probably about 3,000 FT. We jumped a bit early last weekend, but still made the best of it. Got the blue sky pics which might be elusive this weekend. However sometimes bright overcast is good in photos, with minor 'help' on the PC, lol! Halloween weekend could be good lower elevations if the front just prior is not too windy. Also note the early Fall time change this year Sunday November 1. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 EPS @12z is showing a ridge that would surely produce many record highs East of the MS in early November Man, that is massive ridge. Thing is, those ridges once the break in fall can lead to some really cold temps in my experience. If we can get that ridge to hold for about three weeks, might give us a shot at an early start to winter. So, IMHO there is a silver lining in that big ridge. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Looks like rain is on the menu late week. Hopefully not too heavy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 That's gonna make for a humid week I'm sure. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 That's gonna make for a humid week I'm sure. It was crazy humid today. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted October 27, 2020 Author Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 hours ago, PowellVolz said: It was crazy humid today. . It was Chilly on the west side of the state today. Especially this morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 We had a chilly fog develop this afternoon from about 1700-2800 feet. Was just cloudy above and below that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 It was Chilly on the west side of the state today. Especially this morning Wow..... was mid 70’s over here. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Well now my friends, Zeta may still be a minimal tropical storm when it crosses from Alabama into North Georgia. That means steady wind from North Georgia up the Southern Appalachians, especially the Smoky Mountains. Forget about the Cat 2 noise on Twitter, though it's not totally out of the question. Main issue is the forward speed. With the help of the mid-latitude trough, Zeta will scoot right along relative to earlier tropical systems. Though weakening quickly, a quick 15-hour ride from the Coast means it can still be tropical storm strength. Usually I'm not a, goodie we got a TS guy; however, I'm bored. Can't see any interesting severe wx, at least not during the day. Hopefully the WS goes to Game 7. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 On 10/27/2020 at 12:34 PM, nrgjeff said: Well now my friends, Zeta may still be a minimal tropical storm when it crosses from Alabama into North Georgia. That means steady wind from North Georgia up the Southern Appalachians, especially the Smoky Mountains. Forget about the Cat 2 noise on Twitter, though it's not totally out of the question. Main issue is the forward speed. With the help of the mid-latitude trough, Zeta will scoot right along relative to earlier tropical systems. Though weakening quickly, a quick 15-hour ride from the Coast means it can still be tropical storm strength. Usually I'm not a, goodie we got a TS guy; however, I'm bored. Can't see any interesting severe wx, at least not during the day. Hopefully the WS goes to Game 7. Man, was hoping you would talk about the Weeklies. Obviously next three weeks are predominantly warm on most modeling. Just wanted to see what you think after that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 The tropical system will likely smash leaf season here right as it's at it's peak right now. Peak was very short and about a week later last year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 21 minutes ago, John1122 said: The tropical system will likely smash leaf season here right as it's at it's peak right now. Peak was very short and about a week later last year. Has been a great year here. Hate to see it go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 GFS is flirting with a first freeze here early next week. Guess I need to get off my arse and winterize the camper. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 As Stove noted, looks like below freezing temps for a couple of mornings early next week. After that, a prolonged warm-up appears on tap. Would not be surprised to see some record highs fall. We about got one here last week unexpectedly. The warmth is expected to be a long duration event. Now, we have seen that modeled before during November 2-3 years ago. Modeling flipped to a cold end of that month. So verbatim speaking, looks like some AN temps(even much AN) through at least week 3 of November - if not longer. My cold start to winter is definitely in jeopardy. Shoulder season wx modeling is particlulary fickle, but models seem to be fairly dialed in right now with an eastern ridge and western trough w AN temps being signaled over the SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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