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wdrag

Few SVR/FF 'possible' 1P today-5A Wednesday

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Topic posted as a cover for the possibilities but this, as of 611AM Tuesday does not look like w widespread SVR or FF event. Please see SPC D1 Marginal Risk and followup's, as well as local NWS discussions, statements and any warnings plus our own American Weather interpretations and observations of any significant storms.  

Enough CAPE/KI/marginal wind aloft for a couple of clusters of strong storms.  Don't like the 850 westerly flow for lots of svr, and the trough appears too close for too much SVR organization.

Best chance for se NYS-nw NJ, 1P-7P.  

Best for s CT/LI/NYC, ne NJ and s of I80 later...3P-9P, then again midnight-5AM.  This secondary late night increase is when it may be most favorable for an outbreak of heavy convection and several hours of training with embedded isolated SVR/FF and estimating best location IF this is to occur,  would be anywhere on Long Island overnight. (noting several models with much increased convections overnight but mostly s NJ eastward.  Could be more interesting up here on LI near the leftover boundary).

I wont be updating anything on this topic between 8A-330P. Hope this produces something of interest. 

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Up here in the Catskills it's only 77/70 with the front already well on its way. Difference of 10 degrees between my house here and NYC already. Gonna fuel some decent storms for you guys in the metro I think.

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Cell that popped up on eastern LI looked pretty strong on radar. Looks like some weakening stuff approaching the city. 

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Alot of wind with that storm. Tracking north of I 95/Cross Bronx. Heavy rain, now light and looks like the sun ready to come back out just to the west. Headed toward the Sound now

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Agreed on done for the front end aft-early eve,  probably the back end too except maybe e LI. Walt

We have gone into a pattern up here in Orange/Putnam where we have been shafted by frontal timing or when we get activity, it is dissipating as it moves thru our region. It's been over 2 weeks now with nothing appreciable here combined with 90s and my water bill for plants, trees, lawn and pool is going to be astronomical 

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Yes...we here in Wantage of nw NJ have been pretty dry since ~Fay.   Past two weeks 1/4".  Bummer. Misses with big rain last week (2.5" around Port Jervis) and between I80-I78 in NJ-PA.  Today wasn't looking too good for the past couple of days, especially se NYS.  Lot's of target watering and having to be careful with the well  pump. 

 

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I'm always glad when it gets dry that our well is 400 feet deep. The only time we've had a problem in the last 24 years was when the pump actually went bad because of other problems with the system. The downside to a deep well is when you have to replace the pump it's a big hassle and big $$. 

I was up in the western Berkshires this afternoon and coming home I could see the storms down in the Bronx from north of Hillsdale NY, about 100 miles north of them. I was guessing the tops were over 40k and the color was great with cloud to cloud lightning highlighted by the sun setting and turning the clouds pink and purple. Here in eastern/central Putnam and northern Westchester it has also been very dry this month other than Fay and even that wasn't the big numbers seen elsewhere. There was a nice wet period where things stayed soggy for a week or so but it wasn't due to big numbers just persistent wetness. Now the forests have dried out again back to where they were during the mini drought and the fire danger is creeping back up.

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4 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I'm always glad when it gets dry that our well is 400 feet deep. The only time we've had a problem in the last 24 years was when the pump actually went bad because of other problems with the system. The downside to a deep well is when you have to replace the pump it's a big hassle and big $$. 

I was up in the western Berkshires this afternoon and coming home I could see the storms down in the Bronx from north of Hillsdale NY, about 100 miles north of them. I was guessing the tops were over 40k and the color was great with cloud to cloud lightning highlighted by the sun setting and turning the clouds pink and purple. Here in eastern/central Putnam and northern Westchester it has also been very dry this month other than Fay and even that wasn't the big numbers seen elsewhere. There was a nice wet period where things stayed soggy for a week or so but it wasn't due to big numbers just persistent wetness. Now the forests have dried out again back to where they were during the mini drought and the fire danger is creeping back up.

Good observations and agree 100% on deep well...we also have a 400 footer...sooner or later that pump will die and pay the price, if we want to live. This event was a basic dud but at least I realized the uncertainty. The future event(s) of the next 7 days look more promising. 

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Good observations and agree 100% on deep well...we also have a 400 footer...sooner or later that pump will die and pay the price, if we want to live. This event was a basic dud but at least I realized the uncertainty. The future event(s) of the next 7 days look more promising. 

I'm sure many of us hope to hear to you say this Dec-Feb LOL

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1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

I'm sure many of us hope to hear to you say this Dec-Feb LOL

Winter for me tends to be easier, with the R/S line.  EC handles extra tropical cyclone development very well... in my opinion it lags the GFS in convection.  For me, that means summer is more problematic-narrow channels of big stuff. 

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