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Roger Smith

August 2020 temperature forecast contest

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Predict the temperature anomalies (relative to 1981-2010 averages) for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(please note I may be off the internet for some fairly long portions of August, if contest not being promptly maintained in the usual way, I shall return ... )

Just in case here's an early placeholder forecast: 2.5 _ 2.5 _ 2.5 _ 3.5 _ 3.0 _ 2.5 __ 3.5 _ 3.0 _ 2.0

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DCA +2.3

NYC +2.8

BOS +2.7

ATL +3.1

IAH +3.0

DEN +0.4

PHX +1.1

SEA -0.8

I predict that August will be slightly cooler than July and wetter.

Tiebreaker: Halemaumau volcano crater: +2,200.0F

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5      1.7      1.6        0.2     0.3     0.3          0.0      2.0      1.0

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On 7/27/2020 at 11:32 AM, Roger Smith said:

Predict the temperature anomalies (relative to 1981-2010 averages) for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(please note I may be off the internet for some fairly long portions of August, if contest not being promptly maintained in the usual way, I shall return ... )

Just in case here's an early placeholder forecast: 2.5 _ 2.5 _ 2.5 _ 3.5 _ 3.0 _ 2.5 __ 3.5 _ 3.0 _ 2.0

DCA +2.5

NYC +2.75

BOS  +3

ORD +2

ATL +2.5

IAH +1.5

DEN +1

PHX +1

SEA + .5

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DCA +3.0

NYC +3.0

BOS +3.0

ORD +2.0

ATL +1.5

IAH  0.0

DEN  +0.5

PHX +1.0

SEA  +0.5

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 0.9       1.3      2.2        0.9     0.0     -0.4        1.5      2.7      0.3

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Tried to alert Scotty Lightning but his account does not accept PMs, and he only seems to come into the forum to enter this contest (very few posts otherwise). Calling Dr Lightning to the operating theater. 

July is fully scored and updated. Quite a good contest going on above me. ;)

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19 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Tried to alert Scotty Lightning but his account does not accept PMs, and he only seems to come into the forum to enter this contest (very few posts otherwise). Calling Dr Lightning to the operating theater. 

July is fully scored and updated. Quite a good contest going on above me. ;)

My account doesn't accept PMs? That's weird....

EDIT: apparently there's a limit of just 75 messages allowed in the inbox; I had 76.  I just deleted old messages(and I mean OLD....haha). 

 

I've been working seven days a week for the past few weeks so I've been extremely busy. 

 

I will take the penalty.

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

1.5    1.0      1.0       1.0         1.5     1.5       0.5       0.5      0.0 

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Thanks, Scotty, I have been a bit generous with late forecasts all year so your bite won't be very big when I get to the table of forecasts, something I hope to do this evening. 

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Table of forecasts for August 2020

FORECASTER _________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

RJay __________________________+3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 __ +2.0 _+1.5 __0.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5

Brian5671 ____________________ +2.5 _+2.8 _+3.0 __ +2.0 _+2.5 _+1.5 ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5

Roger Smith __________________ +2.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 __ +3.5 _+3.0 _+2.5 ___ +3.5 _+3.0 _+2.0

Jakkelwx _____________________ +2.3 _+2.8 _+2.7 __ +2.4 _+3.1 _+3.2 ___ +0.4 _+1.1 _--0.8

wxallannj _____________________ +2.3 _+2.1 _+1.8 __ +0.4 _+1.2 _+1.1 ___ +0.4 _+2.1 _+0.1

hudsonvalley21 _______________+2.1 _+2.4 _+2.3 __ +1.8 _+1.6 _+1.9 ___ +0.1 _+1.3 _+0.3

___ Consensus ________________+2.1 _+2.0 _+2.2 __ +1.1 _+1.5 _+1.2 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+0.2

BKViking _____________________ +2.1 _+1.8 _+1.6 __ +0.8 _+1.3 _+1.0 ___ +1.1 _+1.8 _+0.3

wxdude64 ____________________ +1.8 _+1.2 _+2.1 __ +0.5 _+0.4 _+0.1 ___ --0.3 _+2.3 _--0.3

Tom __________________________+1.6 _+1.5 _+1.9 __ +1.1 _+1.6 _+1.2 ___ +0.9 _+1.2 _--0.2

DonSutherland1 ______________ +1.5 _+1.7 _+1.6 __ +0.2 _+0.3 _+0.3 ____ 0.0 _+2.0 _+1.0

Scotty Lightning ______________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+0.5 __0.0

RodneyS _____________________ +0.9 _+1.3 _+2.2 __ +0.9 __0.0 _--0.4 ___ +1.5 _+2.7 _+0.3

 

Normal ________________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0

------------------------------------------------------------

Note: forecasts color coded to show highest and lowest. Normal is lower than all forecasts

for all locations except ATL (tied) and IAH, DEN and SEA (one or more forecasts below 0.0).

 

 

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First look at anomalies and projections ...

________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

9th ____ (8d) ___________+1.8 _ +1.6 _ +2.9 _ --1.2 _ +1.8 _ --0.1 _ +2.4 _ +5.5 _ +1.2

9th __ (p15d) __________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ --1.0 _ +1.0 _ --0.3 _ +2.5 _ +5.0 _ +1.5

9th __ (p25d) __________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ --1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +4.5 _ +1.0

_____________________

9th _ Rather subdued warmth except for the ongoing blistering heat in the west. Chicago in fact running a bit below average. The following week looks near average in many areas and continued very warm in the west. Have taken the projections for 16th-25th from assumptions of persistence as pattern looks fairly similar. No seasonal max changes so far in August, will post any that do show up (see July thread for the report on seasonal max to date). 

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