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Itstrainingtime

Central PA Summer 2020: Hoping The Heat Makes a Hasty Retreat

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29 minutes ago, canderson said:

It’s gonna destroy so much land that’ll be lost the Gulf but yea, it’s hitting about the best possible place between Houston and NO. That unfortunately means Lake Charles is going to never be the same again.

I was talking to a customer tonight about that. Pretty sure he said he worked in one of the oil facilities thats right in direct path. Was interesting conversation but even he said it really is lucky its not left or right much cause you have Houston or Baton Rouge/New Orleans. Still a decently populated area but not a city. Still feel for those people. Hope they evacuated

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@canderson-Hopefully you are able to contact your family and all is well.  Did not see a ton of damage into Texas but still early.  The theory that the surge was overblown due to the storm ramping up late is a solid one right now but not sure all the reports are in.  

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looky what i just saw for the first time this 2020-2021 winter season. first panel I've seen that shows blue in the conus since last season.  Makes it down to central rockies.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

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17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

@canderson-Hopefully you are able to contact your family and all is well.  Did not see a ton of damage into Texas but still early.  The theory that the surge was overblown due to the storm ramping up late is a solid one right now but not sure all the reports are in.  

They're so far all good - Houston barely had 25 mph winds. My parents in East Texas very close to the border are in the western eyewall now and having some really severe winds and insane rain ... far worse than Houston. Rita did the same thing. 

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A few weenies are throwin' a fit this morning all disappointed that there wasn't total cataclysmic destruction in Lake Charles overnight. Some dude just called out the NWS for being irresponsible and over-hyping Laura. Fortunately, CoastalWx from New England came by and basically told them to STFU. 

I guess short of seeing corpses float by during live streams, Laura will forever be known as a bust to some people.  

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

A few weenies are throwin' a fit this morning all disappointed that there wasn't total cataclysmic destruction in Lake Charles overnight. Some dude just called out the NWS for being irresponsible and over-hyping Laura. Fortunately, CoastalWx from New England came by and basically told them to STFU. 

I guess short of seeing corpses float by during live streams, Laura will forever be known as a bust to some people.  

Kind of reminds me of a snow storm post-mortem.   Someone always takes the high end possibility and makes it fact in their mind.  It was just a couple days ago (maybe 3) that Laura was a minor cane on landfall so it over performed from that forecast regardless of whether surge got far inland. 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Kind of reminds me of a snow storm post-mortem.   Someone always takes the high end possibility and makes it fact in their mind.  It was just a couple days ago (maybe 3) that Laura was a minor cane on landfall so it over performed from that forecast regardless of whether surge got far inland. 

This is true. I remember having a conversation years ago with Sam Perugini, who was a professor of meteorology at Penn State. At the time he had a forecast for 6-12" of snow for my area, and I excitedly responded about getting up to a foot of snow. He smiled at me and simply said "don't forget my forecast starts with a 6". Simple I know, but that resonated with me from that day forward.

Also - people see a few pictures or a 30 second video and make definitive conclusions about "how lame" a storm is. As many intelligent people are saying, the worst part of the storm went right over the swamp where there isn't a whole lot of people nor a whole lot of buildings, and thus...not a whole lot of pictures and video to view. Thus - "it wasn't that bad" mentality sets in with some. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

@canderson-Hopefully you are able to contact your family and all is well.  Did not see a ton of damage into Texas but still early.  The theory that the surge was overblown due to the storm ramping up late is a solid one right now but not sure all the reports are in.  

I don't think surge was overblown - 30 miles of SW LA is uninhabitable marshland and if it's 20' underwater no one is gonna know. The angle with surge matters - LC apparently got lucky there. 

I bet Cameron and the local beach communities are gone. 

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1 minute ago, canderson said:

I don't think surge was overblown - 30 miles of SW LA is uninhabitable marshland and if it's 20' underwater no one is gonna know. The angle with surge matters - LC apparently got lucky there. 

I bet Cameron and the local beach communities are gone. 

Trust me being an animal lover it hurts thinking about what happened there even if there were not many humans.  But yes in LC specifically it was not as bad as the forecast may have alluded to.

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Just now, paweather said:

Some storms this afternoon? Winds are gusty here right now.

Gotta be north - above 80 north - I think. But they're going to get some strong storms up there later. 

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42 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

10-15 mph? Maybe? It's been slowly increasing as the day goes on.

Has not been too windy lately outside storms so this is a bit of a change. 

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Gotta be north - above 80 north - I think. But they're going to get some strong storms up there later. 

The NAM drops a bit less than 1/4" on me today so I am rolling with it.  Ha

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

I don't think surge was overblown - 30 miles of SW LA is uninhabitable marshland and if it's 20' underwater no one is gonna know. The angle with surge matters - LC apparently got lucky there. 

I bet Cameron and the local beach communities are gone. 

 

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Trust me being an animal lover it hurts thinking about what happened there even if there were not many humans.  But yes in LC specifically it was not as bad as the forecast may have alluded to.

Cameron was starting to get storm surge flooding before dark yesterday prior to the primary bands of the hurricane even arriving there. I'd say NHC's wording was probably prudent there. Heck the Lake Charles NWS had evacuated handing over duties to Brownsville NWS during the storm. 

I can't really speak for the layout of things having never been down there, but it seems the hurricane came in a bit on the right side of the cone, landfalling directly on Cameron and going straight up getting Lake Charles into the northeast eyewall. It had been looking like the eye was going to go in near the border/Port Arthur, which would have sent a longer southerly fetch up that Calcasieu Lake into LC on the east side of the system. The eyewall came in at Cameron and went directly at LC, which the main storm surge push probably didn't have enough to get what 30 some miles up to Lake Charles without a longer term fetch piling water. That would be my speculation. That's a function of all that marshland in southern LA, it absorbs storm surge flooding. 

I'm actually pretty impressed that Lake Charles reported a 132mph wind gust and near 100mph sustained before the station went out, and they were still in the northeast eyewall at the time. The station just west of Cameron stayed online and got a 127mph gust. That's about it for ASOS quality stations in that immediate area where the eyewall tracked, so those are pretty impressive obs for the limited obs that are down there. Both the Lake Charles and Fort Polk radar all the way in central LA went out at basically the same time last night and are still offline. That's probably an indication of how much of LA doesn't have power. 

Lake Charles

1520919529_ScreenShot2020-08-27at1_16_24PM.png.415e970ffba0fe9e957b48db54357afd.png

Calcasieu Pass (just west of Cameron)

428361619_ScreenShot2020-08-27at12_55_03PM.png.ebb04cbe1fda0f9f136623e70da123e6.png

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Just now, paweather said:

What does the Euro say about Saturday? GFS is juicy.

12Z is not out yet.  0Z OP went South of PA but had quite a bit of rain Tuesday with what looked like a frontal passage. 

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24 minutes ago, paweather said:

Some storms this afternoon? Winds are gusty here right now.

Most of PA is in a slight risk for severe weather today, with an enhanced risk in NE PA and a hatched wind threat area in neighboring NY/NJ/CT . The enhanced risk/hatched wind zone kind of shifted northeast a tad from when I saw it last night, so most of us in here are looking at a general slight risk day with ample CAPE. The better shearing is farther north in NE PA and above, where multiple thunderstorm modes (supercellular and bow segments) are in play and actually occurring already. We could see some pop ups and clusters this afternoon, and downdraft CAPES are quite high, so wind is probably the biggest threat in anything severe in our region. 

Edit: Mid level lapse rates are also somewhat elevated as well, so some bigger cells that pop up could have some decent hail too. 

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3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Most of PA is in a slight risk for severe weather today, with an enhanced risk in NE PA and a hatched wind threat area in neighboring NY/NJ/CT . The enhanced risk/hatched wind zone kind of shifted northeast a tad from when I saw it last night, so most of us in here are looking at a general slight risk day with ample CAPE. The better shearing is farther north in NE PA and above, where multiple thunderstorm modes (supercellular and bow segments) are in play and actually occurring already. We could see some pop ups and clusters this afternoon, and downdraft CAPES are quite high, so wind is probably the biggest threat in anything severe in our region. 

Edit: Mid level lapse rates are also somewhat elevated as well, so some bigger cells that pop up could have some decent hail too. 

Thanks for the update, Mag. 

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1 hour ago, paweather said:

What does the Euro say about Saturday? GFS is juicy.

12Z drives the remnants even further South now.  Going through NC.  Still lots of rain on Monday and Tuesday for East of the Susquehanna.  

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