E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2020 OBS Thread

[Hurricane Agnes]

Radar has been lighting up to the south. Currently 75 and overcast here. Overnight/morning statements -

For the coastal Jersey counties -

Quote

Tropical Storm Warning

Fay Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 3
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ  AL062020
458 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NJZ022-101700-
/O.CON.KPHI.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Atlantic-
458 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Pomona
    - Estell Manor

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 45 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until late this
          afternoon

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
      to 57 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force.
        - PREPARE: Last minute efforts to protect property should now
          be complete. The area remains subject to limited wind
          damage.
        - ACT: Now is the time to shelter from hazardous wind.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
        - Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding.

* STORM SURGE
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet
          above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
        - Window of concern: through this afternoon

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
      surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground
        - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Shelter against storm surge flooding greater than 1
          foot above ground.
        - PREPARE: All flood preparations should be complete. Expect
          flooding of low-lying roads and property.
        - ACT: Stay away from storm surge prone areas. Continue to
          follow the instructions of local officials.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
        - Potential impacts from the main surge event are unfolding.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 2-4 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
      moderate flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
          are possible.
        - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
          vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
          and rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
          swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
          especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
          creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow.
        - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
          foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
          of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
          poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
          moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
          Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
          closures.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should continue to include possible
          tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: Stay within your shelter keeping informed of the
          latest tornado situation.
        - ACT: Move quickly to the safest place within your shelter
          if a tornado warning is issued.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - http://www.readyatlantic.org

$$

For the area -

Quote

Hurricane Local Statement

Tropical Storm Fay Local Statement Advisory Number 2
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ010-012>027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-101115-

Tropical Storm Fay Local Statement Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ  AL062020
1109 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This product covers NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND

**Tropical Storm Fay Approaching the New Jersey Coast**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Atlantic, Atlantic
      Coastal Cape May, Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean,
      Eastern Monmouth, Middlesex, Ocean, Southeastern Burlington,
      and Western Monmouth

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 210 miles south of Atlantic City NJ or about 180 miles
      south of Cape May NJ
    - 36.3N 74.8W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement North or 10 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Heavy rain leading to flooding will be possible, especially along and
southeast of the Interstate 95 corridor due to Tropical Storm Fay.
Tropical Storm Fay is currently off the Virginia coast. It is expected
to progress north over our region through Friday. Heavy rain is
possible beginning very late tonight and continuing through Friday
evening. The threat for tropical storm winds over land is very low
except right along the New Jersey coast.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts along and southeast of the Interstate 95 corridor. Potential
impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
      arroyos, and ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
coastal New Jersey. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND, little to no impact is anticipated.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across coastal New Jersey and Delaware. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------



* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don`t drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mount Holly NJ around 5 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Cant wait til winter. Such huge differences in the very short term between the GFS and the new GFS-para

[wkd]

15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Cant wait til winter. Such huge differences in the very short term between the GFS and the new GFS-para

3ohr time difference on initialization. Not a fair comparison.

[Hurricane Agnes]

15 minutes ago, wkd said:

3ohr time difference on initialization. Not a fair comparison.

I guess to line them up, you'd have this...

[wkd]

Thx. More realistic.

[Hurricane Agnes]

13 minutes ago, wkd said:

Thx. More realistic.

The GFS seems to have the cyclone a bit further north and east versus the GFS-para...

[KamuSnow]

Light steady rain starting here. Current temp 73F, DP 71.5

[Hurricane Agnes]

Here is the KDOX view of TS Fay -

[BBasile]

Currently at 0.27" of rain, 74F.  A slightly heavier band is pushing in now.  

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, wkd said:

3ohr time difference on initialization. Not a fair comparison.

Didnt note the timestamp. Just getting the rust off for autumn lol.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Getting light rain (at 0.01") and currently 75.

[ChasingFlakes]

I've been down in Ocean City, MD the past week, and dewey the previous one.  We got 4-6 inches of rain here last night, wind wasnt bad.  Surf might turn on this afternoon as the wind switches west. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

The latest-- TS Fay looks to literally be scraping and slapping againt the coast of Delaware!

[JTA66]

Rain shield is on the doorstep. Got a mow in yesterday, so bring on the rains! 75F/ DP 72

[BBasile]

Currently at 0.57" of rain.  Getting some 1"/hour rates.  

[Hurricane Agnes]

Now getting some moderate rain and am up to 0.20" so far.  Temp is 74.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Here's the cone - cutting right up through Jersey! Now have 0.59" rain here.

[BBasile]

Looking good.  

 

 

[KamuSnow]

11 minutes ago, BBasile said:

Looking good.  

 

 

Yes it is! Getting some heavier rain here now, with some occasional breezes - feels practically stormy at times. Just crossed the 1" mark rain-wise.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Now at 0.77" here...

[JTA66]

Moderate to occasionally heavy rain here. Approaching .50" at noon.

Impressive little storm. Makes you wonder what Fay might have been capable of if this were 9/10 instead.

[Hurricane Agnes]

I'm surprised the ssts are this warm off the coast this "early" in the season (image from yesterday before it started churning up this way)!

[KamuSnow]

38 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Moderate to occasionally heavy rain here. Approaching .50" at noon.

Impressive little storm. Makes you wonder what Fay might have been capable of if this were 9/10 instead.

It is indeed an impressive little storm...nice band incoming, should get some heavy rain and wind gusts from it. Had some up in the 20's so far, also rainfall total is up to 1.70".

[BBasile]

Some of these heavier bands are producing rates in the 3-4"/hour range.  Have had over an 1 inch of rain in the last hour.  Currently at 2.88".  

[Hurricane Agnes]

Had a heavy band pass through about 5 minutes ago with almost 2"/hr rates.  Currently heavy rain and @ 1.82" with temp  at 73.

[Hurricane Agnes]

FFW issued for the metro area -

Quote

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
DEC003-NJC005-007-011-015-033-PAC029-045-091-101-102100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.W.0021.200710T1656Z-200710T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1256 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  New Castle County in northern Delaware...
  Northwestern Cumberland County in southern New Jersey...
  Salem County in southern New Jersey...
  Northwestern Camden County in southern New Jersey...
  Gloucester County in southern New Jersey...
  Northwestern Burlington County in southern New Jersey...
  Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Eastern Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Philadelphia County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 500 PM EDT.

* At 1255 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain falling across
  the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.
  Flash flooding is likely.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
           highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
           drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that could experience flooding include...
  Philadelphia, Camden, Wilmington, Newark, Millville, Bridgeton,
  Middletown, West Chester, Gloucester City, Cherry Hill, Norristown,
  Chester, Deptford, West Deptford, Glassboro, Lindenwold,
  Phoenixville, West Norriton, East Norriton and Pennsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Protecting yourself from immediate threats to life and safety shall
take priority.  Whenever possible, as long as it does not cause
greater harm, all COVID-19 protective action guidance should be
followed.

Turn around...don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 4018 7553 4007 7497 4006 7498 4005 7497
      4007 7494 4006 7491 3931 7515 3940 7577
      3971 7578

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL...1-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

Kruzdlo

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.31" of rain so far with moderate to heavy rain falling.

[Birds~69]

11 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Had a heavy band pass through about 5 minutes ago with almost 2"/hr rates.  Currently heavy rain and @ 1.82" with temp  at 73.

Getting hit now....73F.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Just now, Birds~69 said:

Getting hit now....73F.

Just ticked over the 2" mark for event rain - 2.01".

[blackhound]

Total event rainfall so far -- 2.25". Glen Mills.