Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,800
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Doug747
    Newest Member
    Doug747
    Joined

General severe weather discussion


Quincy
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Definitely seems to be the trend. Models look great then it fizzles out and appears a week later. The eastern troughing is a killer this season and now this cf wiping out moisture. Tomorrow would probably be a good tornado day otherwise. At least getting into mid to late May we are more likely to have better moisture. Pattern seems to really try to break down after mid May. Hoping it can pull a 2013 and get real active in a hurry last few weeks of May or at least a week. I have a break from school May 14-June 1 so would love to get a chase or two in before I go back. 

Yeah looking at the GFS, one run it shows a decent pattern, and then turns right back around and shows crap the next run. Honestly I think this month will be more active than it looks in the long range...

And by "active" I mean average. I don't think we're going to see anything insane, but I don't think this will be as dead as 2018/2020

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is it bad that I barely look at long range or even medium range guidance with respect to severe threats? It’s probably easy for me to say, living in Oklahoma. I feel more for those who have to travel long distances, and/or delicately plan PTO for chase trips. 

Models change and patterns evolve. As mentioned, as we get later into May, moisture will be better and severe setups will become more common. We’re still in that transition period. I don’t have data offhand, but I know that historically, early May has known to be quiet more often than not. It gets sandwiched between late April events (usually in the mid-South/Southeast) and peak trends in the second half of May.

Think of it, most severe setups will change even the DAY OF. There isn’t too much use getting fixated on details. Threats seem to fall apart, far more often than the needle is threaded. 

Tomorrow looks blah and the pattern looks relatively timid for the following few days. Wake me up in late May. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The STPC (Significant Tornado Parameter Composite) is just too low across Oklahoma & Texas . . . 

This 12z GFS model sounding near Tecumseh, OK at +12 hours proves why this might be a tough forecast . . . 

2021050812_GFS_012_35.24-96.97_severe_ml
 

EDIT: This sounding is likely contaminated, the bars are shooting off to the right . . . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1120 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2021  
  
VALID 081630Z - 091200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS  
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST  
MO...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  
LATE EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, AND OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHWESTERN  
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THE INITIAL KANSAS STORMS WILL POSE A LARGE  
HAIL THREAT, WITH AN INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING-WIND THREAT BY EARLY  
TONIGHT.  A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING  
INTO TONIGHT.  
   
..KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MO OVERNIGHT  
  
IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH NOW APPROACHING WESTERN CO, A LEE  
CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN CO INTO  
SOUTHWESTERN KS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS  
SOUTHWARD NEAR THE WESTERN OK BORDER, AND A WARM FRONT CONSOLIDATES  
NEAR I-70 ACROSS KS.  MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN  
DELAYED BY A PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION RELATED TO A MIDLEVEL TROUGH  
NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST, WITH THE RICHEST MOISTURE (> 65 F  
DEWPOINTS) CONFINED TO SOUTH OF I-20 IN EAST TX AS OF LATE MORNING.   
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FROM OK INTO KS,  
BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY VERTICAL MIXING, RESULTING IN BOUNDARY-LAYER  
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE DRYLINE UP TO  
THE TRIPLE POINT IN KS.  
  
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO  
APPROACH 90 F TO MIX DEEPLY ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE CONVECTIVE  
INHIBITION, AND THIS ONLY APPEARS PROBABLE IN A NARROW ZONE ALONG  
THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.   
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST  
NORTHEAST OF THE TRIPLE POINT IN WEST CENTRAL KS BY 21-23Z, AND  
STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SURFACE  
WARM FRONT.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT, AND AN  
ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR IN THE ZONE OF VERTICAL VORTICITY AND  
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE FRONT.  BY LATE EVENING (NEAR  
AND AFTER SUNSET), THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY  
INCREASE NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL KS, AS THE INITIAL  
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS MOVE FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT  
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR STRENGTHENS.    
  
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS IS ALSO EXPECTED AROUND 03Z, AND  
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO MO THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 60  
KT LOW-LEVEL JET.  THE MODE TRANSITION WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT TO  
MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT TONIGHT, THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL  
AND A TORNADO OR TWO MAY STILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER EMBEDDED  
UPDRAFTS/CIRCULATIONS.  
   
..WESTERN OK/TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING  
  
THE CORRIDOR OF RICHER MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYLINE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  DEEP MIXING AND A  
NARROW ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG THE DRYLINE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING; THUS, WILL  
MAINTAIN THE MRGL RISK AREA TO REFLECT THE HIGHLY-CONDITIONAL THREAT  
FOR SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING.  
  
..THOMPSON/MOORE.. 05/08/2021  
  
  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab SPC Page
 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m not chasing Kansas due to other obligations, but I’d be lying if I said I wouldn’t chase it, if I were available. It just doesn’t strike me as a big tornado chase.

I am mildly intrigued by the dryline in SW Oklahoma. As usual, the HRRR has been playing catch-up with moisture return. With that said, it still looks like dews are a tick too low for a more certain storm threat. At this point, I think there will be attempts at convective initiation around 22-23z, but given limited moisture, relatively large T/Td spreads and residual CINH, I doubt that there is any robust, sustained convection. 

It doesn’t strike me as a “drive three hours west and get PUMPED” setup, but if trends improve, there is a non-zero threat of a supercell. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Quincy said:

I’m not chasing Kansas due to other obligations, but I’d be lying if I said I wouldn’t chase it, if I were available. It just doesn’t strike me as a big tornado chase.

I am mildly intrigued by the dryline in SW Oklahoma. As usual, the HRRR has been playing catch-up with moisture return. With that said, it still looks like dews are a tick too low for a more certain storm threat. At this point, I think there will be attempts at convective initiation around 22-23z, but given limited moisture, relatively large T/Td spreads and residual CINH, I doubt that there is any robust, sustained convection. 

It doesn’t strike me as a “drive three hours west and get PUMPED” setup, but if trends improve, there is a non-zero threat of a supercell. 

The SPC did put out the marginal risk for that reason, the uncertainty for storms is just too high . . . 

Many lower risk days have been over-performing lately, should this be next? I doubt it, but Never say Never with Weather!

EDIT: Well, the Dryline is showing itself in NW Texas & SW Oklahoma . . . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

FWIW, looks like there's a low-end tornado watch up downstream of the current SVR watch in parts of N/NE KS

And a new svr storm watch just north of the tor watch.  I always am cautious regarding warm fronts in the spring especially in enhanced risk areas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kansas looks like it's pulling something out of its sleeve again with a TOR warning for areas in and around Salina and another northeast of there (hodos from KICT and KTWX show very sizable amounts of 0-1 km SRH in excess of 500 m2/s2)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Models are hinting a potential Outbreak Sequence across the Southern & Central Plains late this week & into this coming weekend, but the predictability is too low . . .

I wouldn't say "Outbreak Sequence" at this point. More like "something marginally more interesting than the abysmal 'spring' pattern we've been in."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I wouldn't say "Outbreak Sequence" at this point. More like "something marginally more interesting than the abysmal 'spring' pattern we've been in."

Yeah, it's mostly the CFSv2 that is trying a sequence from the Dakotas to Texas, but most other models are showing nothing of that sort . . . 

The next focus of attention for Tornado Alley Severe Weather starts around May 15th . . . Even though that the model agreement is too uncertain for this to happen, I always watch ANY chances, because I've seen it happen on days where it was supposed to be a Marginal . . . 

Many Severe weather days have been over-performing this year, especially in Texas . . . & I don't want to take ANY chances with Oklahoma weather . . . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Yeah, it's mostly the CFSv2 that is trying a sequence from the Dakotas to Texas, but most other models are showing nothing of that sort . . . 

The next focus of attention for Tornado Alley Severe Weather starts around May 15th . . . Even though that the model agreement is too uncertain for this to happen, I always watch ANY chances, because I've seen it happen on days where it was supposed to be a Marginal . . . 

Many Severe weather days have been over-performing this year, especially in Texas . . . & I don't want to take ANY chances with Oklahoma weather . . . 

I think it'll get more active but it'll likely change between now and then. A little over a week or so ago, it looked like this week could have been active but here we with nothing but cold in most of the Plains...

Meanwhile, could be some massive hail in S TX today

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've just looked at the dew points for the 12z Euro & GFS models . . . 

The GFS has dew points near 70ºF next week, that is going to be pure torture on that part . . . :onfire:

The Euro has only up to the Upper 60s, but that is very humid . . . I can't tolerate the crazy humidity very well . . . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Severe t'storms have (unexpectedly) exploded just west of DFW. 

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
553 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

TXC367-102330-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-210510T2330Z/
Parker TX-
553 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR PARKER COUNTY...

At 553 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hudson Oaks, or
near Weatherford, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

This severe storm will be near...
  Azle and Reno around 615 PM CDT.
  Briar around 620 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection stay inside a sturdy structure and keep away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 9791 3299 9754 3256 9755 3256 9798
      3265 9804
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 235DEG 33KT 3276 9770

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

25
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Severe t'storms have (unexpectedly) exploded just west of DFW. 

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
553 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

TXC367-102330-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-210510T2330Z/
Parker TX-
553 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR PARKER COUNTY...

At 553 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hudson Oaks, or
near Weatherford, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

This severe storm will be near...
  Azle and Reno around 615 PM CDT.
  Briar around 620 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection stay inside a sturdy structure and keep away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 9791 3299 9754 3256 9755 3256 9798
      3265 9804
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 235DEG 33KT 3276 9770

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

25

img.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TXC121-497-102330-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0157.210510T2303Z-210510T2330Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
603 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Wise County in north central Texas...
  Southwestern Denton County in north central Texas...

* Until 630 PM CDT.

* At 602 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Boyd, or near
  Briar, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Half dollar size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is possible.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  New Fairview around 625 PM CDT.
  Justin around 630 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3304 9725 3299 9740 3299 9763 3300 9764
      3307 9769 3326 9753 3328 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 240DEG 28KT 3304 9757

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH
$$

25
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC439-102345-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0158.210510T2321Z-210510T2345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
621 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Tarrant County in north central Texas...

* Until 645 PM CDT.

* At 620 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Haslet, or
  near Saginaw, moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Half dollar size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is possible.

Additional storms within Tarrant County may also produce hail to the
size of quarters.

LAT...LON 3298 9703 3255 9704 3256 9755 3299 9754
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 242DEG 42KT 3294 9735

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH
$$

25
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...