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General severe weather discussion


Quincy
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An early day MCS, with possible severe winds and hail is likely to affect the area of some of the Missouri/Arkansas people on this board. There may be later-day development of severe storms in eastern Oklahoma

Qzp83i7.jpg

 

update: SPC retains enhanced risk for southwest Missouri

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

      ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST   KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS...

 

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CAMs have been struggling with the MCS this morning. Trends look to be a bit more robust and somewhat farther SW. It looks like the convection will move toward the KS/MO/OK border area. Still think some isolated supercell development is possible on its southwest flank over eastern Oklahoma, but keep an eye to see any outflow shunts the threat farther S/SW. (not as far as OKC though)

Edit: Now that l look, the NSSL that was posted above seems to be the closest to current obs. That model shows more of a supercell threat down near I-40 and into southeastern Oklahoma. Seems to line up with trends, also considering the system will likely accelerate faster than progged. 

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

...in Northern Michigan.

Yeah, it was a fail here. But I had pretty low expectations already.

In fact, I'm happy that convection and its debris / outflows didn't disrupt our 90*F+ streak. Multiple longevity records were tied and/or broken.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The SPC has put out an enhanced risk of severe weather for the central plains tomorrow, that was the 17z outlook. Tonight's models show a large number of storms developing on the cold front in southern Nebraska. The shear could be 45 kt- 60 kt with CAPE values up to 2000 J/kg. Some supercells will form, with most likely a low storm-relative helicity and lower chance for tornadoes in most areas.

EaSzAyM.jpg

 

HKa74j0.jpg

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To echo @Chinook, forecast hodographs look rather lengthy, thanks to the substantial shear mentioned above. If storms don’t get too clustered, you could see at least a couple long-track, intense supercells. Severe hail would be the most likely hazard.

Low-level SRH is forecast to modestly improve after 00z, but I’m not sure the tornado threat will be fully realized. This is thanks to storms tending to merge and grow upscale, but a tornado or two could form. 

Other supercells seem probable across the Colorado Front Range and possibly northeastern New Mexico as well.

Tuesday could be a rather active day across the region…

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Been chasing the storm cluster in southwestern Nebraska. Keeping a distance to get some structure photos, but there may have been a brief tornado or two underneath there. (Via other storm chasers)

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Haven't been on in a bit, but this interesting little guy happened last week here in Fayetteville. It was a non-severe rain shower that was in the process of dying that spawned this. First pic was literally right up the road from me. Totally freaky. It was a legit funnel with rotation. A failed landspout is what local meteorologists were calling it since it didn't reach the ground.

289934173_5117802128274848_7604735298899426698_n.jpg

FV5iUvEWAAEaBq8.jpg

FV5n19LWAAEGgRL.jpg

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