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Chinook

Mountain West Discussion

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13 hours ago, Chinook said:

Ash is falling from the sky.

Unfortunately, the fire made a very impressive run yesterday and overnight.  An inversion set up overnight and kept temps in the 70's at higher elevations, so while the fire laid down somewhat apparently it was still fairly active overnight.  The end result was an ~8 mile run to the east near Crown Point pushing into Pingree Park, and today will be very similar.  They had set up containment lines along Crown Point road, but the fire apparently jumped them with impunity.  On the south side, the fire pushed into RMNP and Comanche Peak Wilderness towards Comanche Peak and Mummy Mountain.  Expect a lot more ash today, and the snow cannot come quickly enough.  Here is a photo taken from my deck around 4:30pm yesterday/Saturday when the skies turned black.

Image may contain: sky, cloud, plant, tree, mountain, outdoor and nature

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Yes, some bits of ash and 1/4 or 1/2" burnt pine needles fell from the sky for some time period last night. Today, that pyrocumulus is gone, but I guess it could come back. It looks like this month could be filled with things I've never seen before.

 

This is from yesterday.

 

eADvXdA.jpg

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The surface smoke has come back - it smells more like campfire smoke than any day since the worst days of the High Park Fire.

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5 hours ago, Chinook said:

The surface smoke has come back - it smells more like campfire smoke than any day since the worst days of the High Park Fire.

It was choking smoke all day here, with an eerie reddish twilight look...or one of the levels of the underworld.  A lot of people are waiting for snow and cold up here.

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46 minutes ago, ValpoVike said:

It was choking smoke all day here, with an eerie reddish twilight look...or one of the levels of the underworld.  A lot of people are waiting for snow and cold up here.

Similar type of colors here- brownish clouds, sun looks red. You could almost stare at the sun, but still not recommended. At 5:00 or 6:00, it was as dark as a thunderstorm, with reddish horizon. I could post a picture, but I don't want to.

my first GFS mega-snow post. I sincerely hope that there aren't too many trees broken, but it looks quite concerning. Like picking up tree branches after an ice storm.

xRPdHJV.png

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I live near Lamar CO where yesterday's record high of 107.6°F is also a record for all of September.  Mid-90's today, snow by Wednesday morning!

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14 minutes ago, Uncle Bobby said:

I live near Lamar CO where yesterday's record high of 107.6°F is also a record for all of September.  Mid-90's today, snow by Wednesday morning!

wow! Congrats?!? Too much. Hope you get a lot of precip, in whatever form!

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NWS point and click says 6-12 for me, but the WWA says 2-6. I'm a few hundred feet higher than most of the metro's WWA area and on the western edge, so I'm thinking 3-7 for me. Unreal. Latest Euro upped the qpf a bit but most of that was rain, so predicted snowfall held steady.

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Today, the Cameron Peak Fire is up to 59000 acres, up from 21000 acres a couple of weeks ago, when most of the smoke went away. I think. The large smoke plume is going directly east over Fort Collins. In Loveland, we are at about 70 degrees with some orange-ish sunshine.

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4 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

wow! Congrats?!? Too much. Hope you get a lot of precip, in whatever form!

lol... thanks?  I also just saw that Denver has a winter storm warning, and they just posted a high of 92.  Pretty incredible.  We're supposed to get a little precip down here, not a lot.

I went to a Van Halen concert at Fiddlers Green in mid-September 1995.  Snow was in the forecast, but the fans showed up anyway, so the guys in the band were like "Hey, the fans showed up, so we're playing!"  About 6" came down on us during the concert.  Alex played the drums shirtless.  Sammy was laughing at us and said we all looked like little snowcones.  In an interview many years later Eddie was asked if there were any concerts through the years that he remembered as being special.  He said "Well, no, not really.  We've played so many concerts.  But, you know what?  There was this ONE concert in Colorado where it snowed..."

39328324_95VHSnow(2019_04_0518_51_53UTC).jpg.8d09c6c8f924c52839dffd01c39e9042.jpg

 

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Holding firm on the Warnings/Advisories. Seems like most accums for the metro are going to come afternoon into overnight tomorrow. Still think a good snow is in store for the metro, but it's going to be borderline.

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Just now, AppsRunner said:

Holding firm on the Warnings/Advisories. Seems like most accums for the metro are going to come afternoon into overnight tomorrow. Still think a good snow is in store for the metro, but it's going to be borderline.

Looks like the GFS just backed off a little. very borderline now. 

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4 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

Holding firm on the Warnings/Advisories. Seems like most accums for the metro are going to come afternoon into overnight tomorrow. Still think a good snow is in store for the metro, but it's going to be borderline.

Long as there's a good slug of moisture that gets into the ground, I'll be happy. Snow before the equinox somehow doesn't thrill me as much as it would in, say, October. But I have to say this kind of setup is something I'd kill for in February. Somehow the last few years, any 4 corners lows seem to come and go in a matter of a few hours.

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1 hour ago, skierinvermont said:

Looks like the GFS just backed off a little. very borderline now. 

The GFS has been running the hottest and has been significantly overdoing QPF during the day tomorrow. The better signal is for a good round of QPF with better surface temps and a deeper DGZ 21-12Z where the ECM and it's ensemble members have consistently shown. Recent CAM runs have also come on board (at least somewhat) in the past couple cycles. The evening snow is a bit more concerning for pavement accumulations, but still would imagine snow only sticks to pavement in the metro. Of course, it has to happen first. 

 

1 hour ago, mayjawintastawm said:

Long as there's a good slug of moisture that gets into the ground, I'll be happy. Snow before the equinox somehow doesn't thrill me as much as it would in, say, October. But I have to say this kind of setup is something I'd kill for in February. Somehow the last few years, any 4 corners lows seem to come and go in a matter of a few hours.

I'm mostly happy that this will spit out a lot for the Cameron Peak fire. Satellite has not been pretty the past two days. 

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Just a lil snowy - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1685.html

mcd1685.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 1685
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2020

   Areas affected...Southern WY...Far Southwest SD...Far Northwest NE
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 080834Z - 081230Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates around 1"/hr are possible across lower
   elevations over the next few hours. Rates of 2-3"/hr are possible
   over higher elevations.

   DISCUSSION...A strong shortwave trough continues to dig
   south-southeastward through the eastern Great Basin toward the
   central Rockies. Evolution of this shortwave is contributing to
   strong forcing for ascent near and behind a vigorous cold front
   pushing through the central Plains/central High Plains. Banded
   precipitation has resulted from the central High Plains into the
   central Plains over the past few hours, with moderate to heavy snow
   occasionally reported in those areas where profiles are cold enough.

   Based on recent observations and RAP forecast soundings, the area
   from southwest WY northeastward into far southwest SD/far northwest
   NE Panhandle is expected to be cold enough for snow over the next
   few hours. Snowfall rates in these areas could approach 1"/hr across
   the lower elevations and 2"-3"/hr over the higher terrain. This is
   evidenced by recent storm reports indicating 6" to 8" of snow has
   already fallen in Lawrence County SD (in the Black Hills).
   Additionally, blizzard conditions were recently reported at RKS and
   EMM in southwest WY.

   ..Mosier.. 09/08/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...SLC...
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The images coming out of CYS/UNR is why I'm still concerned for Denver metro this evening. I know we've been warmer but road temps could still cool substantially today and if we get good rates it could yet rough this evening, especially if nobody's expecting it. 36F and rain downtown for now though, looks like Broomfield was low 30s and 1/2 SM with snow 

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7 hours ago, AppsRunner said:

The images coming out of CYS/UNR is why I'm still concerned for Denver metro this evening. I know we've been warmer but road temps could still cool substantially today and if we get good rates it could yet rough this evening, especially if nobody's expecting it. 36F and rain downtown for now though, looks like Broomfield was low 30s and 1/2 SM with snow 

It seems like that batch of snow is just over to the west. I guess it could surprise people at 5:00PM, but hopefully this snow has made enough headlines that people pay attention.

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We'll see what that blob of snow does tonight, but despite it snowing all day so far and temps being 30-32,  the rates just haven't been enough to overcome warm ground

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2 hours ago, Chinook said:

It seems like that batch of snow is just over to the west. I guess it could surprise people at 5:00PM, but hopefully this snow has made enough headlines that people pay attention.

Yeah, I'm sure some people called it over when the metro saw drizzle all day. At the office things have whitened up. We'll see how it goes. Road temps down to the upper 30s

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