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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook
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Model-based view of smoke. The model breaks up the forecast into different layers and also vertically integrated smoke.  This evening, I saw a 4-propeller plane going overhead. I think it was a water tanker for the fires, because it wasn't an old WWII plane. Today, the sky looked weird all day. I smelled smoke in the morning, but not in the afternoon or evening. It was hot. I went out at 5:45, and it must not have been too crazy hot at that time. Visibility the mountains was just 5-10 miles.

Good news- the GFS and NWS-WPC show some rain for Colorado next week, both before and after the cold front that should be here on Thursday.

 

zaf2pOs.png

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This week's rains were below the values predicted by NWS-WPC about a a week ago. Nevertheless, I'm sure it provided some minor help to fighting wildfires. My place got 0.05" last night and a trace on August 26th. Yesterday's rain was the only measurable rain here since August 4th. Smoke and haze have been declining. GEFS ensemble means have cool or normal temperatures for 1 week or more.

edit: my place is getting rain for the 2nd straight day. It may go through pretty quickly though. I had something of a shelf cloud type thing before this one. Maybe some 25-30mph wind gusts. Such excitement.

Edit: Las Vegas has been over 100 degrees every day this month.

DqJzK77.png

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Denver had the hottest August in history, tied with August 2011 (77.0 degrees). Phoenix, and Las Vegas had the hottest August in history. Yuma AZ had the 2nd hottest August in history. Tucson had the hottest August, which was also the hottest single month in history with an average of 92.0 degrees. Grand Junction CO had the hottest August in history.

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12 hours ago, Chinook said:

Denver had the hottest August in history, tied with August 2011 (77.0 degrees). Phoenix, and Las Vegas had the hottest August in history. Yuma AZ had the 2nd hottest August in history. Tucson had the hottest August, which was also the hottest single month in history with an average of 92.0 degrees. Grand Junction CO had the hottest August in history.

From a purely technical standpoint, August 2020 was 0.016 degrees hotter. The sum of highs and lows in 2011 was 4774 degrees, and this year was 4775. Couldn't have been any closer! 

 

Anyone else see the Euro for next week? 94 Monday, followed by 6-10" of snow for the plains Monday night into Wednesday. That seems... optimistic

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September is going to get off to a crazy start.  My point and click forecast goes from 86 on Sunday to legit winter conditions starting Monday night:

 

Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 86.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
Labor Day
Sunny, with a high near 77.
Monday Night
Rain likely before 3am, then rain and snow likely between 3am and 5am, then snow likely after 5am. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.
Tuesday
Snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34.
Tuesday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.
Wednesday
A chance of rain and snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Partly sunny, with a high near 49.
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53 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Some of the models are spitting out insane amounts of snow.  I can't imagine they come close to verifying, but it's fun to see in September (except for those whose gardens are still thriving)

I’m in Laramie until Tuesday. May have to stay a little later based on what the models are showing. GFS has 10-14” here.

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Yeah...the Euro and GFS are absolutely dumping on the Front Range.  Up here, between 14" and 16" depending on which model.  We really need the moisture and snow would be the best thing ever for the Cameron Peak Fire which shows nearly 20" falling on it.  Even cutting these amounts in half would be shocking for early September, and equally welcome.  Crazy, but let's wait and see.  :snowman:

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I think the models are coming into agreement with general QPF/ snow amounts on Tuesday. I have never seen snow fall in September. In lower elevation areas of CO and the Midwest, I've only seen snow in October through May. I have had some snowflakes when I've been hiking in August, and maybe June. I can't remember if I've seen snowflakes at 13000-14000 ft in June or July. I once saw new snow on Mt. Bierstadt in September.

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New PWS installed last night! It's a bit close to the roof so monitoring for too-high temps in the sun, but today it seems in line with other readings nearby. Wind, of course, has accurate direction but not speed. Trees in the neighborhood prohibited any accurate siting for wind. 98 for a high so far, that might be it. Temp rose 39 degrees in 4 hours this AM. We shall see what the drop looks like Mon/tues. Hope the rain sensor gets a workout!

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12 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said:

New PWS installed last night! It's a bit close to the roof so monitoring for too-high temps in the sun, but today it seems in line with other readings nearby. Wind, of course, has accurate direction but not speed. Trees in the neighborhood prohibited any accurate siting for wind. 98 for a high so far, that might be it. Temp rose 39 degrees in 4 hours this AM. We shall see what the drop looks like Mon/tues. Hope the rain sensor gets a workout!

Congrats!

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Just in the last few hours, it went from being mostly sunny with slight haze in the mountains, to having a new plume from the Cameron Peak fire, or some new fire near that area. This new pyrocumulus is making the sun look red right now. I would suppose the snow will put that one out.

California, however, should not have any precipitation to help get rid of this massive smoke plume near the national parks of the Sierras

DAgJSnU.gif

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4 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

No headlines for the mountains today, but probably coming soon. Metro still a question mark but at least some snow accumulation looking like a safe bet. Meanwhile 101F today is the all time September record 

What are your thoughts for western Larimer, over the Cameron Peak fire?  The models are crazy and not sure what to think.

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101. Dang. My location has QPF of 1.32" for the Mon-Tues event. That's more than total precipitation way back to June 9th. And snow "accumulation" of 4.9 inches. Wow. Usually we wind up with about half the QPF that's predicted 3 days out, but we can hope....  the concrete patio around our house has sunk down about 2 inches from its normal height.

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There is a surprisingly strong signal in the historical data for early season snow in this part of the world if you get a La Nina that peaks relatively early, or if you get a La Nina with fairly low hurricane activity. I believe 2000 meets both criteria, but if you look it's in the data for other years too.

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