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Tallis Rockwell

Severe Weather for 4/19-4/23

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9 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Low-level lapse rates are very small in this area (you can see the warm nose in the TAMU sounding).  This might be an inhibiting factor.

Initiation down south of the Red River will probably be delayed. That does allow more time for the downstream clouds to push away, which they’re starting to do. 
2020042218.72249.skewt.parc.gif

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Yes things will get going east of I-35. West of there is veering off and/or getting undercut by the surging OK boundary. Watch probs 60/40 are actually pretty robust for that box size.

Definitely looks like towers are working on a cap. Dews are there; but, will need to heat some more along I-35. Keep in mind a bust is not a bad thing considering 8M ppl in the Metroplex.

Days like today I miss living in DFW.

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Just now, nrgjeff said:

Keep in mind a bust is not a bad thing considering 8M ppl in the Metroplex.

And that we just had a major tornado in the north Dallas area in October

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3 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

And that we just had a major tornado in the north Dallas area in October

Not to mention at least some of the model runs suggested that initial activity would be focused on the northern Metroplex.  There is a greater population in DFW north of I-30 than south of I-30, generally.

Some of the surface observations I am seeing in eastern Parker and western Tarrant counties have temperatures in the lower-to-mid 80s.  The big question is how much that cap can take before breaking.

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AND the damage caused by that tornado still hasn't been fixed. The brick wall on DNT and Royal still have that big open part! Not to mention damages within the community. 

 

2 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

And that we just had a major tornado in the north Dallas area in October

 

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Just now, vwgrrc said:

AND the damage caused by that tornado still hasn't been fixed. The brick wall on DNT and Royal still have that big open part! Not to mention damages within the community.

Yep, I still pass by it from time to time, especially areas around Texas Instruments.

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3 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

Not to mention at least some of the model runs suggested that initial activity would be focused on the northern Metroplex.  There is a greater population in DFW north of I-30 than south of I-30, generally.

Fwiw (and I say this as someone not far from where the tornado hit) the area south of 30, while more sparse, is also much less wealthy. Lots of poverty in that area

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6 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Fwiw (and I say this as someone not far from where the tornado hit) the area south of 30, while more sparse, is also much less wealthy. Lots of poverty in that area

To be honest, if a tornado had to hit a residential area, I would rather it happen in a wealthy area like the Park Cities or Southlake given the COVID-19 situation and all.  It would be very costly for the insurance companies (like 10/20/19 was), but people with more resources would be less of a risk for spreading the virus in the aftermath of such a tornado and could more easily recover from the aftermath.

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Just now, BrandonC_TX said:

To be honest, if a tornado had to hit a residential area, I would rather it happen in a wealthy area like the Park Cities or Southlake given the COVID-19 situation and all.  It would be very costly for the insurance companies (like 10/20/19 was), but people with more resources would be less of a risk for spreading the virus in the aftermath of such a tornado and could more easily recover from the aftermath.

Oh 100% agree. Roughly what I was (attempting) to say in my OP

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Privileged people die!

12 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

To be honest, if a tornado had to hit a residential area, I would rather it happen in a wealthy area like the Park Cities or Southlake given the COVID-19 situation and all.  It would be very costly for the insurance companies (like 10/20/19 was), but people with more resources would be less of a risk for spreading the virus in the aftermath of such a tornado and could more easily recover from the aftermath.

I'm just messin' with you. Had the same discussion in Chattanooga. Area hit is able to WFH for covid, has insurance for the tor, and otherwise can recover. However, a 4-year old boy succumbed to his injuries in the hospital. As a parent who protects my family, I cannot imagine what the dad is feeling. So, I'm still salty about privilege. 

Back to weather. I would chase straight north of DFW on I-35, perhaps into southern Oklahoma, but not far. Keep near Red River crossing until final cell selection. Wind might be more backed in southern OK; but, be mindful of that surging boundary from the north.

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Latest HRRR really tones down any notable activity until storms are east of the immediate DFW area

Edit: Just looked at the 18z 3km NAM, it showed storms fire north-south going through Tarrant County at like 3 PM but since that hasn't happened well I guess that may not verify either, so good news as well I suppose.

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2 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

Latest HRRR really tones down any notable activity until storms are east of the immediate DFW area

Excellent news for the Metroplex if that solution verifies.  Some of the temperatures in western Tarrant County continue to rise and are still ahead of the dryline (I believe the dryline is near or just west of the Tarrant/Parker county line).

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Just now, TexMexWx said:

Latest HRRR really tones down any notable activity until storms are east of the immediate DFW area

The HRRR and current radar are a bit too different to compare at this moment. 

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Just now, Paulie21 said:

The HRRR and current radar are a bit too different to compare at this moment. 

Fair enough, I haven't been comparing both at the same time so looks like the story is still to keep going with obs and nowcasting.

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3:35 pm Central cell getting healthy west of CLL. Hopefully keeps south of town CLL/Bryan. Too bad I think it's the wrong side for viewing from the A&M Lab.

Nacogdoches cell is a beast. East Texas acting like Dixie.

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They outflow boundary from Duncan to Pauls Valley, OK continues to drop south. Temps are averaging near 63F on the immediate cool side. 

Looks like the focus area is getting more narrowed down to the Red River.  

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I'm fairly confident at this point that I am not going to get severe weather at my location in west Fort Worth (just west of I-35W), unless something explosively develops in the next 30 minutes or so.  The dryline is very close and should pass over my location soon.  Dallas County, Collin County, and points east might not be so lucky though, if this cap breaks.

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Betting on the cap in DFW is usually a wise move. Key word: usually 

 

EDIT: Up in Ardmore Brett Adair has something interesting on his stream. Looks promising for tornadic activity 

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Not sure what the convective temperature is, but those mid-to-upper 80s temperature observations I am seeing in western Tarrant County (some of which may be behind the dryline now) are concerning me.  Maybe not for my location but for points to the east, should an updraft get going and then sustain itself.

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Just now, TexMexWx said:

That cell is only severe-warned right?

Yes. It does have some broad weak rotation but doesn't look like much at the moment. 

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10 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

those mid-to-upper 80s temperature observations I am seeing in western Tarrant County (some of which may be behind the dryline now) are concerning me

Was it forecast to get that high over there? Here in southern Collin county we're seeing temps in the low 80s and dewpoints in the low 70s in some spots. It might warm up beyond that too. We're finally getting some considerable sunlight too and it just feels muggy.

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Just now, TexMexWx said:

Was it forecast to get that high over there? Here in southern Collin county we're seeing temps in the low 80s and dewpoints in the low 70s in some spots. It might warm up beyond that too.

Those are generally personal weather stations (from Wundermap), but when I see a whole bunch of those averaging around a certain temperature I pretty much take it as fact.  I would keep an eye on southern Denton County right now, there seems to be agitated cumulus around 114 and I-35W (from satellite imagery) that looks like it could try to turn into a storm.

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