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Windspeed

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Seasonal forecasts are beginning to make their way out from respected scientists in the field to media and news outlets. The majority of specialists are predicting a hurricane season with above-normal activity. ENSO looks to be swinging neutral to perhaps even a La Niña by July-September. Western Atlantic subtropical and tropical SSTs are running above average overall with some particularly noticeable 2-3°+C deviations in the GOM and W. Caribbean. Could 2020 be hyperactive? AMO and NAO may present both favorable patterns for not only hurricanes in the MDR, but potential land threats to the W. Caribbean and GOM as well this season. Bermuda-Azores ridging may also dominate the SER/WAR steering pattern during Cape Verde season. This might be a year where we even see a few long-trackers reach Central America.

 

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@Windspeed we’re thinking alike. I started my annual tracking thread today too with the CSU forecast coming out. All the indications to me so far suggest an active season. I’d be surprised if we didn’t continue the multi-year active period we’ve seen. Unfortunately, that’s happening during a global crisis. 

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The prediction is for 19.8 +/- 4.4 total named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range between 15 and 24 storms, with a best estimate of 20 named storms. This prediction was made using the statistical model of Kozar et al. (2012, see PDF here). This statistical model builds upon the past work of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here) by considering a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical undercount of events (see footnotes).

 

The assumptions behind this forecast are A., the persistence of current North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (+1.1 °C in early to mid-April 2020 from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch) throughout the 2020 hurricane season, B., the development of mild El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-negative conditions by boreal late summer and early fall 2020 (ENSO forecasts here; we used mid-April 2020), and C., climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic Oscillation in boreal fall/winter 2020-2021.

 

 If no La Niña develops, then the prediction will be slightly lower: 18.3 +/- 4.3 storms (range of 14-23 storms, with a best guess of 19).

 

Using an alternative model that uses "relative" MDR SST (MDR SST with the average tropical mean SST subtracted) in place of MDR SST yields a considerably lower prediction (13.6 +/- 3.7 total named storms). This alternative model also includes mild ENSO-negative conditions.

http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/research/Hurricane2020.html

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What are you thinking right now in terms of activity/numbers?

I am still working out my numbers. Where most seasonal forecasts are out and dependent upon neutral versus La Nina ENSO conditions, I am waiting just to bit, perhaps early May. The three major ENSO models should have better projections as region 3 begins to decline. I'd really like to know if we're going full Nina. Additionally, I'd like to know if +NAO is going to kick in big time and much earlier in the coming late Spring / early Summer period, or if that is going to oscillate virtually neutral as well. It's more than just projections of active versus hyperactive, but higher track nodes for the W. Caribbean or CONUS versus MDR and susceptibility to recurve.
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Today's 6z GFS shows a system in the gulf on May 9, not developing but maybe?
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh240-276.thumb.gif.af51ce70898c9fc9c34cf5dc085c44ee.gif
With a -NAO, deep ECONUS trough and strong subtropical jet in place, anything that would/could develop in the GOM is going to be a very asymmetric heavily sheared mess. Would probably resemble a system much like a running coastal low or nor'easter. However, that could bring severe storms across Florida and the coastal Carolinas if there were to be any phase. At any rate, something to watch in the long-range.

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On 4/29/2020 at 11:46 AM, Windspeed said:
On 4/29/2020 at 9:58 AM, cptcatz said:
Today's 6z GFS shows a system in the gulf on May 9, not developing but maybe?
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh240-276.thumb.gif.af51ce70898c9fc9c34cf5dc085c44ee.gif

With a -NAO, deep ECONUS trough and strong subtropical jet in place, anything that would/could develop in the GOM is going to be a very asymmetric heavily sheared mess. Would probably resemble a system much like a running coastal low or nor'easter. However, that could bring severe storms across Florida and the coastal Carolinas if there were to be any phase. At any rate, something to watch in the long-range.THE G

Agree.The Euro this afternoon is even hinting at a Rex Block into the Bafffin Bay/Greenland in the long range the same time it looks to be a possible Kelvin Wave moving into GOM during wk.2 of May

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Region 3 is starting to nosedive. Looks like the precursor ENSO modeling has done really well this Spring as a La Niña does look to be developing....

 

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The GFS has consistiently been showing a pretty strong hurricane forming in the Pacific and making landfall in Central America.  Now the last two runs (May 8 00z and 06z) have it reforming in the Caribbean.  It'll be interesting to see if the models keep that up.

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Best chance of tropical genesis into the GOM would seemingly be more into June.Least today there could  be a Kelvin Wave moving into by some models along with the CFS across the Yucatan,this certainly would be a time frame to watch,BUT 3-4 weeks out is beyond trustworthy right now

20200509_00z_fcst_valid_2020_06_05_png_660×419_.png

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. 1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend 
a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some 
subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward through 
Sunday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system 
will be issued by 9 PM EDT Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Latto

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this 
week or early this weekend a couple of hundred miles north of 
the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm 
is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over 
the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on 
this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if 
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

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Looks like Arthur should be here in the next couple days...

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
240 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas. 

1. A trough of low pressure over the Straits of Florida is producing a 
large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions 
are expected to become conducive for development, and this system 
is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm by late Friday 
or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. The 
system is then forecast to move generally northeastward over the 
western Atlantic early next week. 

Regardless of development, the disturbance has the potential to 
bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast 
Florida, and the Bahamas through Saturday. Tropical-storm-force wind 
gusts are also possible in the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and 
the Bahamas during the next day or two. Hazardous marine conditions 
are also expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas 
where Gale Warnings are in effect. See products from your local 
weather office and High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air 
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
this system tomorrow, if necessary. The next Special Tropical 
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or 
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brown

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On 5/9/2020 at 6:55 PM, jaxjagman said:

Best chance of tropical genesis into the GOM would seemingly be more into June.Least today there could  be a Kelvin Wave moving into by some models along with the CFS across the Yucatan,this certainly would be a time frame to watch,BUT 3-4 weeks out is beyond trustworthy right now

20200509_00z_fcst_valid_2020_06_05_png_660×419_.png

Just did a post on it in the Mid-Atlantic thread. Looks like that wave is very strong. Maybe something in the southern GOM or Caribbean late May/early June? 

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4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just did a post on it in the Mid-Atlantic thread. Looks like that wave is very strong. Maybe something in the southern GOM or Caribbean late May/early June? 

Tropical genesis is hard to predict without a storm,it's just a time frame to watch right now possibly

Tropical_Monitoring_North_Carolina_Institute_for_Climate_Studies (1).png

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No surprise here.
QyZgC4Q.jpg&key=8995f304c32d0c848823ef5eaedbbddcf0a0bc25272583f4ff06057c2a2662bf
That is NOAA though. Though SSTs may lag on rapid warmth due to the late swings in pattern, negative to positive NAO and positive AMO, -ENSO, etc., June looks amplified for strong favorable environmental gains to support an active TC setup in the western ATL basin by July. Might even see some W Caribbean / Gulf development into early June. Looks like an active to hyperactive season.

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5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
13 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:
No surprise here.
QyZgC4Q.jpg&key=8995f304c32d0c848823ef5eaedbbddcf0a0bc25272583f4ff06057c2a2662bf

That is NOAA though. Though SSTs may lag on rapid warmth due to the late swings in pattern, negative to positive NAO and positive AMO, -ENSO, etc., June looks amplified for strong favorable environmental gains to support an active TC setup in the western ATL basin by July. Might even see some W Caribbean / Gulf development into early June. Looks like an active to hyperactive season.

It has been a while since I’ve seen such an emphatic signal for an active season. Even without a niña breaking during the peak, a cool neutral regime is plenty favorable for an active basin. I do agree that this early June period looks good too. It’s in fantasy range but you can see a weak signal from the guidance starting to show up. 

gfs-ens_mslpa_watl_53.png

 

cfs.gif

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It has been a while since I’ve seen such an emphatic signal for an active season. Even without a niña breaking during the peak, a cool neutral regime is plenty favorable for an active basin. I do agree that this early June period looks good too. It’s in fantasy range but you can see a weak signal from the guidance starting to show up. 
gfs-ens_mslpa_watl_53.png&key=01b13665def78984ac0a6d3846a9d46a4239678f598978a08bdf6f1ae09aea23
 
cfs.gif&key=311e2a4035ee093441f7bcb6fe880d85b002dc4ef30292a7e9f30e95873a0cbb
I hate to April 27th a meteorological topic for hyperbole, but many of the characteristics of 2005 are coming into play with the late pattern swings here. That year saw a strong -NAO flip postive with a favorable AMO and ENSO for a hyperactive Atlantic. There are other variables, of course, not excluding WAM (West African Monsoon) and ITCZ suppression/placement along the surface wave-breaking entrance into the MDR and SAL. But with a +AMO and +NAO, a late shift like we saw in June that year gave us some incredible early fireworks out of the MDR as well. This year is going to be incredibly interesting to watch unfold.
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