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mappy

COVID-19 Talk

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Toxic, toxic....mercy. Forgive me, I've tried to hold my peace about this, but...my goodness, ya got the same two or three in here messing it up (when I see their icons, I don't even open it half the time, lol) I mean, I get that you guys don't want to moderate TOO heavily and such...nevertheless, it's still frustrating to read.

Sorry, I’ve been outside all day powering washing. Phin isn’t worth the time 

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And you guys can use the report button if you need too. As far as I can tell no one did today so despite the complaints, y’all didn’t do much to get someone’s attention over it 

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I’ve been trying to tell them that. They think you and water don’t like moderating. LOL 

power grabbing moderator reporting for duty 

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Sike, no I’m not. There’s still daylight and it’s beautiful outside, go enjoy it folks 

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19 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I’ve been trying to tell them that. They think you and water don’t like moderating. LOL 

You’ve now made numerous posts about being moderated which should be moderated because it’s cluttering up the thread.  You obviously want to be moderated. You keep this up and sooner or later they will and then you will say see told ya so. 

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7 hours ago, mappy said:

And you guys can use the report button if you need too. As far as I can tell no one did today so despite the complaints, y’all didn’t do much to get someone’s attention over it 

Understood!

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55% of VA death count is from nursing homes.

 

8c99eccf83dfcee3b38c8def060ac20a.jpg&key=cbfcbb94f32ce31481570719abf627963cd6bec9d967dfd783b31f5da269de00

 

 

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2 hours ago, Ji said:

55% of VA death count is from nursing homes.

 

8c99eccf83dfcee3b38c8def060ac20a.jpg&key=cbfcbb94f32ce31481570719abf627963cd6bec9d967dfd783b31f5da269de00

 

 

I feel especially bad for the people who are living in those nursing homes, I'd imagine there's a sense of paranoia in those environments :/

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This graph illustrates our problem very clearly.  Unless you’re China (data caveat) you don’t come off the plateau very quickly. 

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5 hours ago, Ji said:

55% of VA death count is from nursing homes.

 

8c99eccf83dfcee3b38c8def060ac20a.jpg&key=cbfcbb94f32ce31481570719abf627963cd6bec9d967dfd783b31f5da269de00

 

 

If my math is correct 45% of the deaths weren't acceptable 

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Probpublica now reporting this. It’s fascinating. One thing that this virus is starting to be known for is non-typical symptomology. Primarily, it seems to be a virus affecting blood clotting heavily and some people’s only symptoms are blood clotting. The very first case of covid was found on a retro examination as it was originally coded as a heart attack.

Of course people are probably also scared of going to hospitals contributing to higher death counts.

 

Either way, a lot of people are dying right now.

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58 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:


Probpublica now reporting this. It’s fascinating. One thing that this virus is starting to be known for is non-typical symptomology. Primarily, it seems to be a virus affecting blood clotting heavily and some people’s only symptoms are blood clotting. The very first case of covid was found on a retro examination as it was originally coded as a heart attack.

Of course people are probably also scared of going to hospitals contributing to higher death counts.

 

Either way, a lot of people are dying right now.

In my opinion I think most of these at home deaths are simply people too afraid to go to the ER for fear of catching the virus. They’ll probably ignore that lingering chest pain rather than get it checked out in normal circumstances.

Though I’ve read more and more anecdotal reports from ER Doctors saying ventilators don’t help, it seems like more of a blood disorder rather than a respiratory one, etc. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get another about-face from public health officials on that, just like we did with masks and many other things.

It would be interesting if we started seeing excess deaths from home in December through February, months before the panic- if so, it may be a clue as when the virus really arrived here. I don’t know if that data exists though.

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I would also add to my previous post (and I’m seeing this with people I know too), that some cardiologists are cancelling non-emergency visits, so a lot of people are not getting proper heart checkups... you can’t run an EKG in a telehealth visit. 

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US Intel agencies reporting China hid or destroyed evidence of the virus (color me shocked).  

There should be retaliation against China and they should be held accountable.

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7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

US Intel agencies reporting China hid or destroyed evidence of the virus (color me shocked).  

There should be retaliation against China and they should be held accountable.

do you have a link to this? thanks.

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22 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Social distancing is fine. That's different than a lockdown. Sweden is social distancing. Americans are doing it too. That's not the same thing as saying you will arrest some kids playing at the park, harass people in their homes, force every kid into homeschooling for 2 years, force mandatory quarantines for crossing state lines, and do silly things like fill skateboard parks with sand and remove benches from the boardwalk.

I agree that social distancing is fine.. but to what extent.. this is the real question at play.

What if social distancing was as simple as a few common sense suggestions:

  • If you are immunocompromised or have significant risk factors, self isolate. 
  • No visitors in nursing homes and certain units in hospitals. 
  • Extensive testing and monitoring for employees working in nursing homes and with the elderly.
  • If you think your sick, don't go to work.  Don't go to the baseball game.  Don't go to the club.

Suggestions like these of course spur on the expected response - 

  • What about incubation periods? You can be infectious and not be sick.  Simply staying home from work is not good enough.
  • What if you are immunocompromised and you live with a some millennial who insists they continue to go to the bar 3 nights a week.

The truth is that we really do not know the true relationship between mitigation efforts and communal spread.  Who on earth can tell you definitively that an increase in mitigation efforts would have a proportional decrease in communal spread.  Of course you have the cookie cutter answer of.. "Every expert in the world agrees that this works" This is @psuhoffman favorite.  But if you really think about it.. group consensus doesn't equal fact. The world's control groups suggest that the impact of mitigation efforts on communal spread is more or less unknown and sort of chaotic.  What we do know for sure is that there are hotspots.

The only way we will ever know the answer to this question is through years of studies, statistical analysis and peer review of such studies.   Maybe postmortem (no pun intended) will supply these answers.  I hope so.

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5 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

8sC4Hi5.png

This is argumentum ad populum though. There was time when a consensus of experts thought asbestos and lead paint were ok too. I doubt the current knowledge of COVID-19 is the correct answer across the board.

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Looks like another drop in hospitalizations today. 3 days in a row. Maryland might just be ready for a phase on May 15th... and we'll have plenty of time to see what other states look like in their phase 1s.

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2 hours ago, DCTeacherman said:

This graph illustrates our problem very clearly.  Unless you’re China (data caveat) you don’t come off the plateau very quickly. 

You also have to take into account the increased testing as you look to the right in the graph. I’m not saying that this would mitigate totally the difficulty in coming off the plateau as shown in the graph, but it is something to take into account.

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Just now, mattie g said:

You also have to take into account the increased testing as you look to the right in the graph. I’m not saying that this would mitigate totally the difficulty in coming off the plateau as shown in the graph, but it is something to take into account.

Those are deaths...

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22 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Hospitalization numbers are declining all over the country. The CDC even said so. I posted it here last night.

We have been told since early March that doom for us was "2 weeks away."

Hospitals being overrun? 2 weeks away!

Bodies being dumped in the street? 2 weeks away!

Hundreds of thousands of deaths? 2 weeks away!

Florida beachgoers dropping like flies? 2 weeks away!

Georgia surge in deaths? 2 weeks away!

It's clear now we are over the hump everywhere in this country, but diehard doom porn fans and those with reputations to protect will try to walk out of their entrenched positions slowly enough that we don't notice.

 

We might be over the hump in places like NYC.. but we really dont know if we are over the hump in other areas.  

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Only 14% percent positive in Maryland,  good sign, also the hospitalizations are down again! 

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Those are deaths...

I realize that. I don’t think it changes what I said though. I think you see an increased ratio of deaths attributed to COVID as more tests are being done.

Again, I’m not saying things would change dramatically in that graph, but I do think it would change somewhat (probably more deaths earlier on) had you had similar availability of testing from the beginning of the crisis to now.

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You know I hope it's clear to the "open now" people that a lot of us are not against opening, we just want to do it smartly. I don't think any of us want to stay isolated in quarantine for 2 years, but we also want to come out of this measured and calculated. All of the countries that have thrived in a coronavirus world have done so. It's why I'm so happy with Hogan's procuring of the 500k tests, and Maryland's decision to go forward sticking to the rules rather than trying to shortcut the process... and if things spike, well it will suck but at least we're following an evidence based process.

 

Test, contact trace, isolate. I hope that the bill passes this next week to fund a 120,000 person contact tracing army. It seems to be getting support.

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5 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

You know I hope it's clear to the "open now" people that a lot of us are not against opening, we just want to do it smartly. I don't think any of us want to stay isolated in quarantine for 2 years, but we also want to come out of this measured and calculated. All of the countries that have thrived in a coronavirus world have done so. It's why I'm so happy with Hogan's procuring of the 500k tests, and Maryland's decision to go forward sticking to the rules rather than trying to shortcut the process... and if things spike, well it will suck but at least we're following an evidence based process.

 

Test, contact trace, isolate. I hope that the bill passes this next week to fund a 120,000 person contact tracing army. It seems to be getting support.

It is really hard to say whether or not what is going on right now is evidenced based.. this is a first for pretty much everyone involved... I guess we do have some historical reference.. but the Spanish flu had a mortality rate that was 10-20 times greater than this.  

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Just now, 40westwx said:

It is really hard to say whether or not what is going on right now is evidenced based.. this is a first for pretty much everyone involved... I guess we do have some historical reference.. but the Spanish flu had a mortality rate 10-20 times greater then this.  

Not sure about that last part, but the best bet for evidence based action is looking at governments and global health agencies recommendations, and the top experts and agencies in our own country, and trusting them to issue the best recommendations.

Not youtube videos, individual doctors at for profit hospitals, politicians with competing interests, etc.

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46 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

I agree that social distancing is fine.. but to what extent.. this is the real question at play.

What if social distancing was as simple as a few common sense suggestions:

  • If you are immunocompromised or have significant risk factors, self isolate. 
  • No visitors in nursing homes and certain units in hospitals. 
  • Extensive testing and monitoring for employees working in nursing homes and with the elderly.
  • If you think your sick, don't go to work.  Don't go to the baseball game.  Don't go to the club.

Suggestions like these of course spur on the expected response - 

  • What about incubation periods? You can be infectious and not be sick.  Simply staying home from work is not good enough.
  • What if you are immunocompromised and you live with a some millennial who insists they continue to go to the bar 3 nights a week.

The truth is that we really do not know the true relationship between mitigation efforts and communal spread.  Who on earth can tell you definitively that an increase in mitigation efforts would have a proportional decrease in communal spread.  Of course you have the cookie cutter answer of.. "Every expert in the world agrees that this works" This is @psuhoffman favorite.  But if you really think about it.. group consensus doesn't equal fact. The world's control groups suggest that the impact of mitigation efforts on communal spread is more or less unknown and sort of chaotic.  What we do know for sure is that there are hotspots.

The only way we will ever know the answer to this question is through years of studies, statistical analysis and peer review of such studies.   Maybe postmortem (no pun intended) will supply these answers.  I hope so.

this is full of things that are simply untrue.

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1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

In my opinion I think most of these at home deaths are simply people too afraid to go to the ER for fear of catching the virus. They’ll probably ignore that lingering chest pain rather than get it checked out in normal circumstances.

Though I’ve read more and more anecdotal reports from ER Doctors saying ventilators don’t help, it seems like more of a blood disorder rather than a respiratory one, etc. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get another about-face from public health officials on that, just like we did with masks and many other things.

It would be interesting if we started seeing excess deaths from home in December through February, months before the panic- if so, it may be a clue as when the virus really arrived here. I don’t know if that data exists though.

it's a respiratory illness with additional, and related, complications.

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