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Roger Smith

April 2020 temperature forecast contest

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Predict the temperature anomalies for nine locations relative to the 1981-2010 averages ...

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Deadline for entries is 06z April 1st, with late penalties applying from then to 18z April 2nd, larger penalties kick in at that point.

Good luck !!

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On 3/26/2020 at 10:39 PM, Roger Smith said:

Predict the temperature anomalies for nine locations relative to the 1981-2010 averages ...

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Deadline for entries is 06z April 1st, with late penalties applying from then to 18z April 2nd, larger penalties kick in at that point.

Good luck !!

DCA +4

NYC +3.5

BOS +2.5

ORD +3

ATL+ 5

IAH +4

DEN+1

PHX+1

SEA +1.5

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haha Roger, I’m on time! Don’t have to remind me! The heat is ON! 
DCA +3.4

NYC +3.3

BOS +2.8

ORD +2.2

ATL+ 4.0

IAH +2.5

DEN+0.5

PHX+1.2

SEA +1.0

 

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DCA +4.5

NYC +4.2

BOS +4.0

ORD +5.9

ATL +3.6

IAH +4.0

DEN +2.2

PHX -1.0

SEA -1.3

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.5      0.5       0.2        -1.0      0.7     0.5        -0.5    0.2      -1.5 

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 1.8      1.5      1.2        0.7     2.8      4.5        -0.2     -0.2     -1.9

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 1.1      0.9      1.0        0.5     1.8      2.5        -0.3     0.3     -1.5

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Forecasts for April, 2020

FORECASTER _________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

Maxim ________________ +4.5 _+4.2 _+4.0 ___+5.9 _+3.6 _+4.0 __ +2.2 _--1.0 _--1.3

Brian5671 _____________+4.0 _+3.5 _+2.5 ___+3.0 _+5.0 _+4.0 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.5

BKViking ______________+3.4 _+3.3 _+2.8 ___+2.2 _+4.0 _+2.5 __ +0.5 _+1.2 _+1.0

wxdude64 _____________+3.1 _+2.9 _+2.6 ___+1.6 _+3.1 _+3.3 __ --1.1 _--1.6 _--2.6

JakkelWx _____________ +2.9 _+3.0 _+1.3 ___+1.9 _+3.5 _+2.7 __ --0.1 _+0.8 _--0.5

RodneyS ______________ +1.8 _+1.5 _+1.2 ___+0.7 _+2.8 _+4.5 __ --0.2 _--0.2 _--1.9

___ Consensus ________ +1.7 _+1.5 _+1.3 ___+1.0 _+2.2 _+2.5 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 _--0.8

wxallannj _____________ +1.7 _+1.6 _+1.9 ___+2.0 _+2.2 _+1.7 __ +1.2 _--1.0 _--2.3

RJay ___ (-5%) ________ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ____ 0.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

Tom __________________ +1.1 _+0.9 _+1.0 ___+0.5 _+1.8 _+2.5 __ --0.3 _+0.3 _--1.5

Scotty Lightning ______ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5

hudsonvalley21 (-1%) _ +0.9 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.3 _+0.9 _+0.7 __ +0.3 _--0.1 _--0.4

DonSutherland.1 ______ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 ___--1.0 _+0.7 _+0.5 __ --0.5 _+0.2 _--1.5

___ Normal _____________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0

Roger Smith __________ --0.5 _--0.8 _--1.0 ___ --2.2 _--1.0 _--1.5 __--3.0 _--1.5 _--0.8

______________________________________________________________________

Color codes reveal the warmest and coldest forecasts for each location. 

 

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Thanks, RJay, as a friend of the contest in many ways, and in view of extenuating circumstances which you explained to me privately, I am going to post your forecast with just a small time penalty that would protect the field given that you had a bit of extra information by posting time. But I won't apply the entire penalty. As I mentioned, anyone else who (in coming months) has more pressing concerns at forecast time should feel free to seek a partial waiver on late penalties. I am just going to say -x% for now and see what I think is fair after assessing a few things that aren't in my head right now, such as trends in modelling since 1st, and differential from consensus in the forecast submitted. Anyone who would like to offer an opinion on this, would prefer in private message. 

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After the first four weeks ...

_________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

____ (7d) ________________+3.9_ +4.0 _+1.4 __ +5.9 _+4.6 _+1.9 __ +0.3 _+1.7 _--2.1

____ (14d) _______________+3.2_ +2.2 _+1.1 __ +3.4 _+3.1 _+2.0 __ --3.1 _--1.4 _+0.2

____ (21d) _______________--0.1_ --0.6 _--1.3 __ --0.1 _+0.5 _+1.1 __ --4.0 _--1.5 _+1.8

____ (28d) _______________--1.6_ --2.6 _--3.3 __ --0.4 _--0.1 _+1.5 __ --1.8 _+0.8 _+1.9

 

____ (p14d) _____________ +1.0_ +1.0 _--1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.5 _+0.5 __ --2.0 _+0.5 _--1.0

____ (p21d) _____________ +1.5_ +1.0 _+0.2 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ --2.5 _--0.5 __ 0.0

 

____ (p24d) ______________ 0.0__ 0.0 _--2.0 __ --1.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ --1.5 _+0.5 __ 0.0

15th__ (p30d) ___________+0.3__0.0 _--1.0 __ --1.5 _ +0.5 _+0.5 __ --1.5 _+0.5 _ +0.5

22nd__ (p30d) ___________+0.3__0.0 _--1.0 __ --1.0 _ +0.5 _+1.0 __ --2.5 _--0.5 _ +1.2

29th__ (p30d) ___________--1.0_--2.0 _--3.0 __ --0.5 _ --0.5 _+2.0 __ --1.0 _+1.5 _ +2.5

Final anomalies _________--1.5_--2.7 _--3.5 __ --0.6 _--0.4 _+1.3 __ --1.2 _+1.5 _ +2.0

 

(8th) _ The trends in the coming week appear fairly cold relative to normal, and this remains the case to some extent in the longer range although departures do not look very great. Quite a few of the locations are slowly trending towards a near normal overall outcome after this faintly warm start, more or less the afterglow of the warm March we just finished. 

(15th) _ This past week saw a slight drop in the earlier anomalies, one very warm day on Monday 13th in the east prevented a larger slide there. It continues to look rather cold in eastern and central regions both this coming week and later in the month. Will stay with the original idea for the 24th as end of month anomaly projection with slight changes. The snowfall contest has been updated in the March thread. Around the end of the month I will move the post over here, contest runs until Denver stops snowing which is often mid-May. It can still affect the outcome of this contest.

(22nd) _ Anomalies have dropped to near or even below zero in some cases, but the coming week looks a bit closer to average, and I have only adjusted the earlier end of month projections slightly. Will perhaps post some preliminary scoring soon.

(29th) _ Warmth in western regions has reversed some anomalies there, but east locked into rather cold weather for a while yet. 

(May 1st) _ Posting final anomalies overnight and updating the scoring below. All are now confirmed. Scoring is more or less complete (just checking some updated totals). 

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Man I blew this month big time. 
you and Don S we’re onto something. I just expected the blocking to be temporary - we saw how that went. Now I’m v cautious about May 

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In my case, it's the broken clock syndrome. Figures that nature would waste below normal on April after that sad excuse for a winter though ...

Have decided the following on the late penalty situation. Just happy that we seem to have survived the pandemic, so will be reducing earlier issued late penalties and just tapping RJay lightly for his entry at the new max of 5%. Former late penalties will be basically cut in half with the same max. I can edit the scoring in earlier threads to reflect this (no penalties were that much bigger anyway so won't be much of an adjustment of scores already posted) ... I really wanted to go with the no penalty sentiment but then I have these pre-existing late penalties already applied, seemed a bit too lenient to say zero. But I realize that RJay made a forecast under health duress and probably without much influence from guidance. So I needed to balance all of those considerations. Moving forward, I will just set the late penalties a bit more leniently but they will be applied where necessary. The new standard will be 1% for every 8 hours late up to 2 days (8%) then 1% added per hour. 

Hope people think this is a fair solution for everyone. Scoring to follow, updating the anomalies tonight (a few posts back now). 

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Final Scoring for April 2020

BOS scores are now adjusted to the max 60 rule as top raw score was 50. The new distribution favors everyone but me so I have lodged a protest with myself which I plan to ignore. :) ... Normal score was adjusted to scale and on raw score was 30. NYC also finished colder than provisional and almost went the same way but I held on to 62 points there so no adjustments. ... Hudsonvalley21 late penalties are only 1 point where applied, those are marked with an asterisk (raw score was one higher) ... RJay had a 5% late penalty assigned as explained above in previous post. That leads to a separate line of final scoring with the raw scores partially hidden in the light orange type. 

 

FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS_east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __ TOTAL

 

___ Normal ___________ 70 _ 46 _ 56^__ 172 __ 88 _ 92 _ 74 __ 254 _ 426 __ 76 _ 70 _ 60 __ 206 ____ 632

DonSutherland.1 ______60 _ 36 _ 55^__ 151 __ 92 _ 78 _ 84 __ 254 _ 405 __ 86 _ 74 _ 30 __ 190 ____ 595

Scotty Lightning ______ 50 _ 26 _ 45^__ 121 __ 68 _ 62 _ 96 __ 226 _ 347 __ 56 _100 _70 __ 226 ____ 573

hudsonvalley21 (-1%) _ 51*_ 30 _ 50^__ 131 __ 81*_73*_87*__ 241 _ 372 __ 69*_ 67*_51*__187_566-7= 559

Roger Smith __________ 80 _ 62 _60^__ 202 __ 68 88 44 __ 200 _ 402 __ 64 _ 40 _ 44 __ 148 ____ 550

Tom __________________ 48 _ 28 _ 45^__ 121 __ 78 _ 56 _ 76 __ 210 _ 331 __ 82 _ 76 _ 30 __ 188 ____ 519

RJay __________________40 _ 16 _ 25^__ 081 __ 88 _ 62 _ 94 __ 244 _ 325 __ 76 _ 70 _ 60 __ 206 _ 531

RJay ____ (-5%) ________38 _ 15 _ 24^__ 077 __ 84 _ 59 _ 89 __ 232 _ 309 __ 72 _ 67 _ 58 __ 197 ____ 506

___ Consensus ________ 36 _ 16 _ 30^__ 082 __ 68 _ 48 _ 76 __ 192 _ 274 __ 76 _ 70 _ 44 __ 190 ____ 464

JakkelWx ______________12 _ 00 _ 30^__ 042 __ 50 _ 22 _ 74 __ 146 _ 188 __ 78 _ 86 _ 50 __ 214 ____ 402

RodneyS ______________ 34 _ 16 _ 35^__ 085 __ 74 _ 36 _ 36 __ 146 _ 231 __ 80 _ 66 _ 22 __ 168 ____ 399

BKViking ______________ 02 _ 00 _ 05^__ 007 __ 44 _ 12 _ 76 __ 132 _ 139 __ 66 _ 94 _ 80 __ 240 ____ 379

wxallannj ______________36 _ 14 _ 20^__ 070 __ 48 _ 48 _ 92 __ 188 _ 258 __ 52 _ 50 _ 14 __ 116 ____ 374

Brian5671 _____________00 _ 00 _ 15^__ 015 __ 28 _ 00 _ 46 __ 074 _ 089 __ 56 _ 90 _ 90 __ 236 ____ 325

wxdude64 _____________08 _ 00 _ 10^__ 018 __ 56 _ 30 _ 60 __ 146 _ 164 __ 98 _ 38 08 __ 144 ____ 308

Maxim ________________ 00 00 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 _ 066 __ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 ____ 182

_____________________________________________________________________________

Extreme forecast report 

Going cold gave your host four extreme forecast awards (DCA, NYC, BOS, and ATL) with Normal sharing the ATL award.

At ORD DonS has the high score with second coldest forecast for a win, Roger Smith takes a loss here.

IAH ended up a little closer to our consensus and won't be an extreme forecast this month. 

DEN was running as cold as -4 for quite a while then warmed up big time, so wxdude64 has a win and Roger Smith another loss. 

PHX has verified right on the money for warmest forecast (Scotty Lightning at +1.5).

SEA has warmed considerably against our expectations and that gives Brian5671 a win with warmest forecast still a half degree below the outcome.

So the summary would be 4-2 for Roger Smith on the month, and wins for Normal, DonS, SL, wxdude64 and Brian5671. 

________________________________________

Annual update follows, after revision of some penalized scoring in March. DonS has moved up several spots and RodneyS has a much smaller lead than last month, some shuffling of the deck below that. 

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< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Apr) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > >

Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. 

Some late penalties in March were reduced (because of the April decision) and a few scores were adjusted in the March scoring tables. The increases were minor (5-12 points).

It was not deemed necessary to adjust February and there were no late penalties in January. 

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

 

RodneyS ___________________280_ 228_246 __ 754 __327_207_206 __ 740 __1494 __282_254_222__758 ____ 2252

Don Sutherland.1 ___________232 _218_210 __ 660 __287_204_208 __ 699 __1359 __ 200_244_242__686 ____2045

RJay ______________________ 258 _251_189 __ 698 __183 _196 _217 __ 596 __1294 __218_285_210__713 ____2007

hudsonvalley21 ____________175 _172 _211 __ 558 __222 _208_203 __ 633 __1191 __217 _333_219__769____1960

wxallannj __________________204 _208 _209 __ 621 __203 _197 _226 __ 626 __1247 __208_292_202__702 ____1949

 

___ Consensus _____________184 _164 _205 __ 553__199 _187_222 __ 608 __1161 __208_322_222__752 _____1913

 

BKViking ___________________164 _160 _181 __ 505__196 _152 _202__ 550 __1055 __199_334_237__770 ____1825

Brian5671 _________________ 237 _213 _203 __ 653 __100 _228_219 __ 547 __1200 ___97_280_238__615 ____1815

Tom _______________________ 160 _140 _180 __ 480__189 _190 _195__ 574 __1054 __ 203_338_209__750 ____1804

 

Scotty Lightning ____________100 __ 70 _110 __ 280 __150 _179_258__ 587 __ 867 __ 176 _336_272__784 ____1651

wxdude64 __________________ 90 __ 74 __101 __ 265__154_155 _227__ 536 __ 801 __ 212 _276_169__657 ____1458

___ Normal __________________74 __ 50 __ 86 __ 210 __140 _138 _168__ 446 __ 656 __168_330_ 272__770 ____1426

Roger Smith ________________132__117 _158 __ 407 __157 _215_180__ 552 __ 959 __198 _156_100__454 ____1413

JakkelWx _ (2/4) ____________ 40 __ 21 __ 70 __ 131 __ 57 _ 59 _122 __ 238 __ 369 __ 90 _174 _ 56 __ 320 _____ 689

yoda _ (2/4) _________________64 __ 43 __ 16 __ 123 __ 18_118 _125 __ 261 __ 384 __ 71 _161_ 70 __ 302 _____ 686

rclab _ (1/4) _________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 __ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250

dwave _ (1/4) _______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 __ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292

Maxim _ (1/4) _______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 __ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182

Rhino16 _ (1/4) ______________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 __ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178

==============================================================================

Extreme forecast standings

30 of 36 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 20 for warmest and 10 for coldest.

FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May etc ___ Standings to date

Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ ---- _______ 9 - 1

RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ ---- ________ 5 - 1

Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ ---- ________ 5 - 2

RJay _____________ ---- __ ---- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ---- _________ 3 - 0

Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- ________3 - 0

DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- _______ 3 - 0

Normal ___________1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- ________ 2 - 1

RClab ____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 2 - 0

yoda _____________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________1 - 0

Tom _____________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 0

wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- _________ 1 - 0

 

================================================================================

BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to April

Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. 

Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus

achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also.

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months

RodneyS ___________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Jan, Feb

DonSutherland.1 ____________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 1 _ Mar, Apr

RJay _______________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0

hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

wxallannj ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

BKViking ___________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0

Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0

Tom ________________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Scotty Lightning ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0

wxdude64 __________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

_____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr

Roger Smith ________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

yoda _______________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

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