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MAG5035

Central PA - Spring 2020

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2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Well didn't get NAM'd today but let's start with the excuses. This is only one model run, I'll wait for the GFS and EURO, then I'll wait for the Happy Hour runs where I am sure to get NAM'd, if not then 0z will be good hit.....etc. LOL. 

You forgot that there were dozens of observations stations that missed the deadline for this run.  I do not think they sent a plane out to measure the core of the storm. The algorithms on TT are screwed up lets find another snow map. 

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1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Kinda strung out not what’s needed for snow in May lol. Is this going to kill chances of squalls Saturday? If so hoping for a miss lol.

Exactly! I have virtually zero hope of seeing snow here in Lanco...if, and man what a huge IF it is...if we're going to see flakes flying down here I think we need to hope for an intense shower of graupel or snow on Saturday. Tomorrow/tomorrow night is a rainer down here.

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Exactly! I have virtually zero hope of seeing snow here in Lanco...if, and man what a huge IF it is...if we're going to see flakes flying down here I think we need to hope for an intense shower of graupel or snow on Saturday. Tomorrow/tomorrow night is a rainer down here.

Lol jumping on the Saturday train with you

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was talking about MY location - you have a better chance of something than I do tomorrow evening. :) 

I’d still trade the white rain for an awesome grauple or snow burst with wind any day of the week haha.

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Picked up .38" of rain yesterday.  For those who have been disgusted with the weather lately, should step outside today and suck up there vitamin D. What a perfect spring day.

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10 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Kinda strung out not what’s needed for snow in May lol. Is this going to kill chances of squalls Saturday? If so hoping for a miss lol.

I dunno if it's really all that strung out, the NAM looks like it's coming more into line with what the other models have been showing... having a bigger portion of the event rain especially outside of the high ground. Timing is important with this. If this stays slow enough, the main part of the event is late in the day into at least the first half of the night... taking away the sun part of the equation. You would need crazy rates in the middle of the day this time of the year, but toward dusk (after 18z)  and nighttime you can start accumulating with more modest rates. We have the things on the playing field to make this happen, having such a cold airmass pressing in with this storm system passing under us. It's going to be interesting to see what happens. I definitely think the high ground is going to see at least a few inches, but the wild card is going to be if this actually gets to lower elevations or even the Sus Valley.

This won't affect potential for showers/squalls on Saturday. The core of the mid-level cold will either directly target PA or pass just north depending on models on Saturday behind the system. GFS and NAM are taking it right through PA with sub 516 thicknesses.. which is insane. -40ºC 500 mb temperatures are generally not something seen over the US in May. PA gets into -20 to -22ºC temps at 700mb (10,000ft) and -10ºC 850 temps. Even the 925mb temps are well below freezing. I bet some of the higher Laurels and north central elevations never get above freezing during the day Saturday. But you put that really strong May sun and heat the surface with such cold air aloft and your going to get some stuff to pop up.

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35 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

You forgot that there were dozens of observations stations that missed the deadline for this run.  I do not think they sent a plane out to measure the core of the storm. The algorithms on TT are screwed up lets find another snow map. 

LOLLLL!

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Rain changing to snow in May is going to be difficult for us in lsv.  That is even difficult in January sometimes. I'm sure for some up north they will see an accumulating snowfall. It seems the trend this year was to have the cold chase precip.   It would be nice to have cold air in place before the precip moves in.

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1 minute ago, daxx said:

Rain changing to snow in May is going to be difficult for us in lsv.  That is even difficult in January sometimes. I'm sure for some up north they will see an accumulating snowfall. It seems the trend this year was to have the cold chase precip.   It would be nice to have cold air in place before the precip moves in.

As long as I see a snowflake here or there, Friday night or Saturday I'll be happy! 

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46 minutes ago, paweather said:

As long as I see a snowflake here or there, Friday night or Saturday I'll be happy! 

I'm not downplaying flakes or even a heavier snow shower between Friday night or Saturday in lsv.  I'm just not buying some of the snowfall maps that have been posted for our area.

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General increase of Covid infections in PA today.  Wolf is going to have to give up following that 50/100,000 metric or we will not be opening retail in parts of the state even past June 1.

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1 hour ago, daxx said:

Rain changing to snow in May is going to be difficult for us in lsv.  That is even difficult in January sometimes. I'm sure for some up north they will see an accumulating snowfall. It seems the trend this year was to have the cold chase precip.   It would be nice to have cold air in place before the precip moves in.

Rain changing to snow is pretty difficult in early February!

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36 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

General increase of Covid infections in PA today.  Wolf is going to have to give up following that 50/100,000 metric or we will not be opening retail in parts of the state even past June 1.

Only 3 cases today here, but my county is still at 86/100,000 over the past 14 days.

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11 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Only 3 cases today here, but my county is still at 86/100,000 over the past 14 days.

The local Flea Market around here is going to defy and open this weekend.   I just saw a second graphic suggesting cases feel slightly yesterday.   So whether they rose or feel a bit is a bit of a question.  My county is at 164/100,000 :axe:

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11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The local Flea Market around here is going to defy and open this weekend.   I just saw a second graphic suggesting cases feel slightly yesterday.   So whether they rose or feel a bit is a bit of a question.  My county is at 164/100,000 :axe:

I just looked at that. Why are you guys so high down there? I'm sandwiched between 3 hot counties (Berks, Luzerne, and Lehigh) and our numbers aren't that bad. Unless we're not testing enough here.

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36 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I just looked at that. Why are you guys so high down there? I'm sandwiched between 3 hot counties (Berks, Luzerne, and Lehigh) and our numbers aren't that bad. Unless we're not testing enough here.

We are chunking on 15-30 cases a day and our population is low compared to areas east of us.  Chambersburg is really our only city. 

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2 hours ago, daxx said:

I'm not downplaying flakes or even a heavier snow shower between Friday night or Saturday in lsv.  I'm just not buying some of the snowfall maps that have been posted for our area.

This is what I've been saying. Possibly seeing some flakes on Saturday? Yes. Accumulating snows measured in inches as some of the models have suggested? No way. (down here)

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8 minutes ago, paweather said:

Happy Hour runs will safe us! :D If not the beer will do its course. 

NAM did take it up a notch for the LSV if interested in snow maps...especially Lancaster and east

image.thumb.png.b88323fc7e6f2b9ec39631913a3e08c2.png

 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

If we end up with any snow on the ground...anything...I will gladly run around and tell everyone what you all know already...I have no idea what I'm talking about. :) 

Your good, I’m just looking for snow to fall it won’t accumulate here but heck if it snows in May what does that mean for June? April showers bring May flowers so what does June mean!? LOL

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Just now, paweather said:

Your good, I’m just looking for snow to fall it won’t accumulate here but heck if it snows in May what that mean for June? April showers bring May flowers so what does June mean!? LOL

Pilgrims... :P

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