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Holston_River_Rambler

Spring-Summer banter 2020

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Oh the storm from The Day After Tomorrow sinking south - like the stock market!

In sports, the WWE chair rematch is this weekend! KU at K-State is on CBS Saturday!

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I'm already ready for summer and spring to be over.  Tennessee isn't making the NCAAs and I'm already tired of humid, 88-95 degrees and rain.  At least in fall when it's still 88-95 degrees its dry.  

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13 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'm already ready for summer and spring to be over.  Tennessee isn't making the NCAAs and I'm already tired of humid, 88-95 degrees and rain.  At least in fall when it's still 88-95 degrees its dry.  

Another suck winter for us,we'll be headed towards 3-years without any event bringing a inch or more snow next winter.

If the Euro is right with this system up coming you guys possibly could get a surprise in the east towards next weekend,alot would have to depend on this trough,to warm for us

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            12Z FEB28
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
FRI 12Z 28-FEB   0.0    -5.5     129     817    21006                           
FRI 18Z 28-FEB   3.9    -5.8     130    1011    25010                           
SAT 00Z 29-FEB   2.1    -5.0     130    1542    26006           0.02            
SAT 06Z 29-FEB   0.5    -5.9     129     787    25007           0.02            
SAT 12Z 29-FEB  -1.3   -10.5     128       0    29007           0.02            
SAT 18Z 29-FEB   3.5    -8.7     129     633    29005           0.00            
SUN 00Z 01-MAR   0.2    -3.8     130    1744    26004           0.00            
SUN 06Z 01-MAR  -2.4     0.5     131    4415    18004           0.00            
SUN 12Z 01-MAR  -1.6     1.6     131    6039    19003           0.00            
SUN 18Z 01-MAR  12.3     3.0     134    5601    23006           0.00            
MON 00Z 02-MAR   9.6     4.3     135    6287    19005           0.00            
MON 06Z 02-MAR   6.2     3.6     134    6067    19004           0.00            
MON 12Z 02-MAR   5.5     4.2     133    5901    16005           0.05            
MON 18Z 02-MAR   9.5     4.9     134    7191    20008           0.23            
TUE 00Z 03-MAR   9.7     7.1     135    7839    19005           0.09            
TUE 06Z 03-MAR   9.7     9.4     136    7630    19005           0.16            
TUE 12Z 03-MAR  11.6     9.9     136    7695    21006           0.29            
TUE 18Z 03-MAR  14.5     9.7     137    8411    23005           0.23            
WED 00Z 04-MAR  14.6     9.9     137    8328    21007           0.08            
WED 06Z 04-MAR  11.6     6.9     136    7482    26007           0.06            
WED 12Z 04-MAR   7.9     4.3     134    8335    34004           0.01            
WED 18Z 04-MAR  15.6     5.4     135    9064    25003           0.00            
THU 00Z 05-MAR  11.6     8.2     136    8216    24003           0.00            
THU 06Z 05-MAR   8.5     4.8     135    6512    06001           0.01            
THU 12Z 05-MAR   6.2     3.6     133    7975    05008           0.55            
THU 18Z 05-MAR   8.1     2.3     133    8724    05008           0.38            
FRI 00Z 06-MAR   6.1     1.5     132    5735    01004           0.23            
FRI 06Z 06-MAR   4.0    -0.8     131    5378    26004           0.00            
FRI 12Z 06-MAR   3.9    -2.7     131    1718    27009           0.16            
FRI 18Z 06-MAR   3.8    -4.6     130    1183    29011           0.06            
SAT 00Z 07-MAR   0.8    -7.6     129     423    32010           0.12            
SAT 06Z 07-MAR  -1.1   -10.7     128       3    35009           0.05            
SAT 12Z 07-MAR  -2.6   -11.8     127       0    35008           0.01            
SAT 18Z 07-MAR   2.4   -10.0     128     425    35009           0.00            
SUN 00Z 08-MAR  -0.2    -8.1     129     873    01005           0.00            
SUN 06Z 08-MAR  -3.9    -4.9     128       0    04004           0.00            
SUN 12Z 08-MAR  -5.7    -0.6     129     601    06004           0.00            
SUN 18Z 08-MAR   7.7     0.8     132    4980    04003           0.00            
MON 00Z 09-MAR   3.2     2.4     133    5956    10003           0.00            
MON 06Z 09-MAR   0.9     3.6     132    7084    20004           0.00            
MON 12Z 09-MAR  -1.7     3.8     132    7089    20004           0.00

AccuWeather com® Professional - Forecast Models (15).png

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On 2/28/2020 at 6:34 PM, jaxjagman said:

Another suck winter for us,we'll be headed towards 3-years without any event bringing a inch or more snow next winter.

If the Euro is right with this system up coming you guys possibly could get a surprise in the east towards next weekend,alot would have to depend on this trough,to warm for us

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            12Z FEB28
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
FRI 12Z 28-FEB   0.0    -5.5     129     817    21006                           
FRI 18Z 28-FEB   3.9    -5.8     130    1011    25010                           
SAT 00Z 29-FEB   2.1    -5.0     130    1542    26006           0.02            
SAT 06Z 29-FEB   0.5    -5.9     129     787    25007           0.02            
SAT 12Z 29-FEB  -1.3   -10.5     128       0    29007           0.02            
SAT 18Z 29-FEB   3.5    -8.7     129     633    29005           0.00            
SUN 00Z 01-MAR   0.2    -3.8     130    1744    26004           0.00            
SUN 06Z 01-MAR  -2.4     0.5     131    4415    18004           0.00            
SUN 12Z 01-MAR  -1.6     1.6     131    6039    19003           0.00            
SUN 18Z 01-MAR  12.3     3.0     134    5601    23006           0.00            
MON 00Z 02-MAR   9.6     4.3     135    6287    19005           0.00            
MON 06Z 02-MAR   6.2     3.6     134    6067    19004           0.00            
MON 12Z 02-MAR   5.5     4.2     133    5901    16005           0.05            
MON 18Z 02-MAR   9.5     4.9     134    7191    20008           0.23            
TUE 00Z 03-MAR   9.7     7.1     135    7839    19005           0.09            
TUE 06Z 03-MAR   9.7     9.4     136    7630    19005           0.16            
TUE 12Z 03-MAR  11.6     9.9     136    7695    21006           0.29            
TUE 18Z 03-MAR  14.5     9.7     137    8411    23005           0.23            
WED 00Z 04-MAR  14.6     9.9     137    8328    21007           0.08            
WED 06Z 04-MAR  11.6     6.9     136    7482    26007           0.06            
WED 12Z 04-MAR   7.9     4.3     134    8335    34004           0.01            
WED 18Z 04-MAR  15.6     5.4     135    9064    25003           0.00            
THU 00Z 05-MAR  11.6     8.2     136    8216    24003           0.00            
THU 06Z 05-MAR   8.5     4.8     135    6512    06001           0.01            
THU 12Z 05-MAR   6.2     3.6     133    7975    05008           0.55            
THU 18Z 05-MAR   8.1     2.3     133    8724    05008           0.38            
FRI 00Z 06-MAR   6.1     1.5     132    5735    01004           0.23            
FRI 06Z 06-MAR   4.0    -0.8     131    5378    26004           0.00            
FRI 12Z 06-MAR   3.9    -2.7     131    1718    27009           0.16            
FRI 18Z 06-MAR   3.8    -4.6     130    1183    29011           0.06            
SAT 00Z 07-MAR   0.8    -7.6     129     423    32010           0.12            
SAT 06Z 07-MAR  -1.1   -10.7     128       3    35009           0.05            
SAT 12Z 07-MAR  -2.6   -11.8     127       0    35008           0.01            
SAT 18Z 07-MAR   2.4   -10.0     128     425    35009           0.00            
SUN 00Z 08-MAR  -0.2    -8.1     129     873    01005           0.00            
SUN 06Z 08-MAR  -3.9    -4.9     128       0    04004           0.00            
SUN 12Z 08-MAR  -5.7    -0.6     129     601    06004           0.00            
SUN 18Z 08-MAR   7.7     0.8     132    4980    04003           0.00            
MON 00Z 09-MAR   3.2     2.4     133    5956    10003           0.00            
MON 06Z 09-MAR   0.9     3.6     132    7084    20004           0.00            
MON 12Z 09-MAR  -1.7     3.8     132    7089    20004           0.00

AccuWeather com® Professional - Forecast Models (15).png

Yea, was really hopeful based upon what was reading November onward that the Winter would turn around but we put another consecutive awful winter in the books in Middle TN; the real problem is that when the pattern eventually breaks and it will, that even the smallest Winter event will seem so out of the ordinary. Needless to say, if we ever have another winter like I had growing up in the 1970's, Nashville would think that the world was coming to an end!

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That would make this winter almost dead on with 1993. It also featured a horrible December and January that finally got a little snowy the last 10 days of February then the March mega storm hit. 

My actual guess is that it's wildly wrong of course.  But the GFS has done the best with temperatures for the past several weeks. I believe I saw that the GFS was only -2.7, the Euro was -4.8, the Euro Ens were -5.5ish, the GEFS was -6.8 and the GGEM was something like -11. 

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There's apparently an East Tennessee winter storm Facebook page that was hyping the GFS run as if it were legitimately a threat.  The shame of it is it has thousands of followers. 

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14 hours ago, John1122 said:

There's apparently an East Tennessee winter storm Facebook page that was hyping the GFS run as if it were legitimately a threat.  The shame of it is it has thousands of followers. 

I've seen that page too.  The page hypes about every GFS fantasy storm that pops up.  Those thousands of followers swear by the page's "forecasts."  I can't help myself to occasionally comment and attempt to educate a few of those thousands. 

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31 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I need to find this. What is it called, lol. Surprised facebook hasn't "recommended" it to me yet. 

"Winter Storm Outlook For East Tennessee".   I follow them also and get a good laugh from it from time to time.  

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In an ever changing World of uncertainty, the European weekly charts offer a dose of stability but not-so Southern Comfort...

Warm and Wet! Go figure.

In other news KU is ranked #1 with no March Madness. I guess hang the National Championship banner at Allen Field House. 

:thumbsup:

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Some of you may've already seen this video but thought I would share anyway. Posting here not to clutter the Severe Weather thread up so far post event.

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Kansas deserves to be #1.

I hope everyone lives through this.My wife doesnt even know what her protocol will be when she goes to Blount Memorial next week,she's a doctor.

My son goes to Auburn and he dont even want to come home because there are no cases in Alabama but Middle Tn has the most cases in Tn.We talked to him this morning and said wouldn't you like to be with us,he said..no..lol

I'm ok with this tho but sad anyways.But i completely understand,just told him i love him,what else could i do?

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With an MD in the house you already know, he is perfectly safe to drive home solo (COVID-19 independent of the activity of driving). Bring paper towels with, for restrooms and door handles. Educated guess is Alabama is awaiting test kits. No policy/politics in here, but Bama has finally confirmed at least one as of this writing. Highest Middle Tenn confirmed is in affluent suburbs. Do they have their own test kits independent of the CDC?

My guess the risk is equal both places (very low). That said...

Informed people I know are practicing social distancing. Work recommends avoiding groups of 10+. I've heard sharply conflicting thoughts from the two MDs I know personally. However the tie was broken when Galen Medical released an article: This is No Snow Day. Galen says don't even let kids play with their friends much. Tough for solo kids w/o siblings. Keep having fun as a single nuclear family unit only. I was thinking, wow really!

Galen and Church (online only now) both make the point. We do not act in fear. We act out of love and consideration for others. Elderly and vulnerable need us to collectively stay healthy in order to protect them (much as we can). Medical sector needs us to slow down this thing - spread out the cases - which we know are inevitable. Spread out over several months will be easier to treat than all at once.

So we are keeping to ourselves, except to buy perishables. Couple weeks ago we took care of non-perishables for a while. We go out to jog and play soccer or shoot hoops. School is remote by video app. Work in shifts. Probably have several movie marathons and books in our immediate future.

It's different, but we'll manage. Keep your faith. And hey, now we are all ready for severe weather season too!

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1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

With an MD in the house you already know, he is perfectly safe to drive home solo (COVID-19 independent of the activity of driving). Bring paper towels with, for restrooms and door handles. Educated guess is Alabama is awaiting test kits. No policy/politics in here, but Bama has finally confirmed at least one as of this writing. Highest Middle Tenn confirmed is in affluent suburbs. Do they have their own test kits independent of the CDC?

My guess the risk is equal both places (very low). That said...

Informed people I know are practicing social distancing. Work recommends avoiding groups of 10+. I've heard sharply conflicting thoughts from the two MDs I know personally. However the tie was broken when Galen Medical released an article: This is No Snow Day. Galen says don't even let kids play with their friends much. Tough for solo kids w/o siblings. Keep having fun as a single nuclear family unit only. I was thinking, wow really!

Galen and Church (online only now) both make the point. We do not act in fear. We act out of love and consideration for others. Elderly and vulnerable need us to collectively stay healthy in order to protect them (much as we can). Medical sector needs us to slow down this thing - spread out the cases - which we know are inevitable. Spread out over several months will be easier to treat than all at once.

So we are keeping to ourselves, except to buy perishables. Couple weeks ago we took care of non-perishables for a while. We go out to jog and play soccer or shoot hoops. School is remote by video app. Work in shifts. Probably have several movie marathons and books in our immediate future.

It's different, but we'll manage. Keep your faith. And hey, now we are all ready for severe weather season too!

Alabama now has 6.It keeps growing here in Mid Tn

https://twitter.com/TNDeptofHealth/status/1238902725502533633/photo/1

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4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

And of course the rain pipeline just won't abate either. Sunshine might at least let us get out in our backyards a bit. Only speaking for myself, it would cheer me up too. 

Yeah beside Corona the tree pollen is getting brutal already,the rains will just knock the pollen to the ground and when people start cutting grass,i already have a sinus headache just thinking about it..lol

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5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

And of course the rain pipeline just won't abate either. Sunshine might at least let us get out in our backyards a bit. Only speaking for myself, it would cheer me up too. 

This cloudy/rainy pattern needs to go. It's a stressful period right now, and a little sunshine to get outside in the yard could do me a lot of good. 

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44 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Apparently the viruses have a hard time in humidity, so maybe the rain will actually slow it some. 

Could be depending on what kind strain  it is which is unknown.If its like the common cold or flu it will die off when temps start to get in the mid to upper 70's.We've never seen this strain before tho so no one knows how it will act

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Been a week since I last posted.  My wife is in the medical field, and I have been delivering band fundraiser mulch.  Time has been at a premium.  Finished the last run today just as schools were shut down for a couple of weeks minimum.  I appreciate everyone for keeping the fires lit.  Best wishes to everyone during the coming months, and my hopes are certainly for continued warm and humid weather.  Sounds kind of weird, but this crappy weather pattern we have had all winter might actually have been a blessing in disguise.  

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14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Been a week since I last posted.  My wife is in the medical field, and I have been delivering band fundraiser mulch.  Time has been at a premium.  Finished the last run today just as schools were shut down for a couple of weeks minimum.  I appreciate everyone for keeping the fires lit.  Best wishes to everyone during the coming months, and my hopes are certainly for continued warm and humid weather.  Sounds kind of weird, but this crappy weather pattern we have had all winter might actually have been a blessing in disguise.  

You could be right but there signs the AO could go negative which would bring colder air into the lower levels with throughs in the east especially with the -PNA which has been on going thanks to the Rex blocking into the AK and GOA which the PNA could go +, we couldnt get this look in winter

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33 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

You could be right but there signs the AO could go negative which would bring colder air into the lower levels with throughs in the east especially with the -PNA which has been on going thanks to the Rex blocking into the AK and GOA which the PNA could go +, we couldnt get this look in winter

Of course.  LOL.  

Nothing overly scientific,  just hoping.  Let's hope the EPS doesn't fold.  Good thing is, many of the schools will be closed by that time, and that will help.  While in session, cold weather keeps those kiddos inside and stuff spreads like wildfire.  

Stay well, my friend.  

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9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Of course.  LOL.  

Nothing overly scientific,  just hoping.  Let's hope the EPS doesn't fold.  Good thing is, many of the schools will be closed by that time, and that will help.  While in session, cold weather keeps those kiddos inside and stuff spreads like wildfire.  

Stay well, my friend.  

Our kids are going to the computer,well my youngest ones.My oldest in Auburn they were going to Dothan,then their parents found out and told them to go to Panama City they have a beach house,so thats where they are going,they just dont have no toilet paper..lol

 

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15 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Our kids are going to the computer,well my youngest ones.My oldest in Auburn they were going to Dothan,then their parents found out and told them to go to Panama City they have a beach house,so thats where they are going,they just dont have no toilet paper..lol

 

My son stays at the Auburn Hub,they match kids via a computer program,not sure how it works but its based on personalities,the apt he stays at has 4 people with rooms in each apt,its really unique but works out really seemingly well,all of them just came back from the North Carolina last week doing community service,i met them all before,good group of kids

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More traditional banter...went out and purchased a generator.  It is just a small one, but enough to run a freezer and a refrigerator.  We have lost our freezer three times during the past years.  Once was due to a storm, and the other two were the result of the door being left open...nobody in the house seems to know how that happened.  We now have freezer alarms.  However, with this virus running through the US right now, didn't want to chance severe wx knocking out our power.  If this comes through in a wave, I imagine multiple services which we have come to depend on as automatic will be uncertain.  I do think food supplies are still good, but runs on grocery stores make it difficult for supply chains to get food from vendors to shelves.   Interestingly, the grocery store shelf stockers, truck drivers, postal services, and building custodial services to name a few are so important right now.  I hope we recognize and remember in the future just how important those folks are.  Hats off to those folks.  Well, we have been working our tails off in my family to get ready.  For my family, this will get potentially dicey as my wife works in the medical field.  The situation changes by the hour some days.  Fortunately, she works for really good folks who are also committed to great patient care.  My phrase is to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.  I suspect we are about to see a big jump in cases as more testing comes on line with maybe things leveling off(meaning acceleration slows) by mid to late April.  Tough to know if the virus is moving that fast or if we are just getting more tests on line.  I suspect it is a combination of both.  Looking at virus maps is not dissimilar to looking at weather maps.  Problem with the COVID19 maps, what is under all of those dots is serious business.  I haven't posted much lately as I am reading everything I can get my hands on and working to prepare...just really pulling for spring to continue to move forward.  Though we don't know about this virus, other corona viruses do not spread nearly as fast during summer.  That might be related to schools being out, heat, and people having more space between them during summer (meaning going outside).  I suspect it slows down, but I am not a doctor.  Best wishes to everyone.  TRI folks, we are just a PM away.  If you need anything, don't hesitate to ask.  We just need to pull together and support our communities including this weather community.  Stay strong, stay safe, and social distance.

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