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C.A.P.E.

March Medium/Long Range Disco

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25 minutes ago, stormy said:

I can assure you that a topsoil moisture deficit is developing over much of central and northern Virginia. This has nothing to do with the subsoil clay moisture in your garden. Clay retains moisture long after topsoil is dry. During the first 29 days of March I received 38% of normal rainfall!

when i  get home I'll  take a picture of the shoes I used while tilling my garden.  I grew 3 inches from all the clay/soil stuck to the bottom of my shoes.  my entire yard is wet not just my garden.  I'm looking forward to things drying out

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26 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said:

when i  get home I'll  take a picture of the shoes I used while tilling my garden.  I grew 3 inches from all the clay/soil stuck to the bottom of my shoes.  my entire yard is wet not just my garden.  I'm looking forward to things drying out

I am very happy for you with all that rain, but regional stats. don't lie. Congratulations!  But, you have probably ruined the soil in your garden by getting in it when it was far too wet!!  I made that mistake about 20 years ago. It took years to get the 'clay brick" soil reconditioned.

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1 minute ago, stormy said:

I am very happy for you with all that rain, but regional stats. don't lie. Congratulations!  But, you have probably ruined the soil in your garden by getting in it when it was far too wet!!  I made that mistake about 20 years ago. It took years to get the 'clay brick" soil reconditioned.

you arent a very happy go lucky guy are you?  very hyper critcal of others.    

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1 hour ago, stormy said:

I can assure you that a topsoil moisture deficit is developing over much of central and northern Virginia. This has nothing to do with the subsoil clay moisture in your garden. Clay retains moisture long after topsoil is dry. During the first 29 days of March I received 38% of normal rainfall!

Everywhere you go here it’s squish. Mowed today at 2 pm. Full sun for hours. Mower tires instantly wet when they started rolling.

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30 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Everywhere you go here it’s squish. Mowed today at 2 pm. Full sun for hours. Mower tires instantly wet when they started rolling.

There is no longer a moisture deficit here, despite what any map shows. When the seasonal wetland on my property expands and drowns, the water table is charged. It took a while after the late summer/fall drought, but 4.3" this month has it exactly as it normally is. It fills when the water table has broken the surface, as it is low and there is no natural drainage there, so it sits until the trees become active and the longer, warmer days help to dry it up. I just hit it with larvicide, as I always do at the end of March. Normal.

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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

There is no longer a moisture deficit here, despite what any map shows. When the seasonal wetland on my property expands and drowns, the water table is charged. It took a while after the late summer/fall drought, but 4.3" this month has it exactly as it normally is. It fills when the water table has broken the surface, as it is low and there is no natural drainage there, so it sits until the trees become active and the longer, warmer days help to dry it up. I just hit it with larvicide, as I always do at the end of March. Normal.

You speak with a reasonable tone. Thank you for that. As you may notice the date on the short term map is March 21. What some seem to be unaware of or defensive about  is that portions of extreme northern Virginia and Maryland received very beneficial rainfall yesterday. Cross Junction in Frederick County reported .50". Others without doubt received significantly more. If you travel south from this area rainfall was meager at best. I received .02".  You received 4.30" in March. That is close to what I have received this entire year to date.

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Just now, stormy said:

You speak with a reasonable tone. Thank you for that. As you may notice the date on the short term map is March 21. What some seem to be unaware of or defensive about  is that portions of extreme northern Virginia and Maryland received very beneficial rainfall yesterday. Cross Junction in Frederick County reported .50". Others without doubt received significantly more. If you travel south from this area rainfall was meager at best. I received .02".  You received 4.30" in March. That is close to what I have received this entire year to date.

I don't doubt there are localized areas in our general region that are at a deficit. That map, however, needs an update.

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31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I don't doubt there are localized areas in our general region that are at a deficit. That map, however, needs an update.

That map only updates about once every two weeks. That is the latest.

During the past 7 - 10 days the latitude zone from  the bay through D.C. to Winchester has received various amounts of very beneficial rain. Much of central and northern Va. from Richmond, Charlottesville, Lexington, Staunton, Harrisonburg and New Market is very dry. These are several month deficits.  Southwest Va. between Roanoke and Bristol is wet.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

You are at least a month late with this post.

I gave up on anything more than some crazy fluke so long ago it feels like I should be preparing for next winter by now!

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9 hours ago, Ji said:

wow we are really going to finish this winter with no snow

You need to drive down to Highland west. The latest GFS and Nam say 2 - 4 inches for that area.

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38 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

12Z WB 3K NAM for our southern friends.

nam-nest-conus-ma-total_snow_kuchera-5760400.png

Really?  unbelievable but yet some how totally believable 

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On 3/30/2020 at 11:22 AM, Ji said:

wow we are really going to finish this winter with no snow

1.8" (BWI)...so technically not zero, lol (although the suckage makes it a psychological zero!)

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Euro says wait a minute... we r still tracking winter weather 

Should this come to fruition should we add this to next season's total or last season's :yikes:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-dc-total_snow_kuchera-6736000.png

Control lol

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-ma-total_snow_10to1-6800800.png

Pretty wicked h5 setup depicted by the control leading in . ..holy confluence Batman! 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-6498400.png

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54 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

People actually still listen to that delusional idiot? Lmfaooo 

I believe people listen to him only to go back and troll him. Its fun to see him get shredded on Twitter. :lol:

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7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I believe people listen to him only to go back and troll him. Its fun to see him get shredded on Twitter. :lol:

Lol I’ll have to look. I stopped following him a few years ago

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