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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah....so really this setup doesn't have much of a chance?...I mean...should we right the threat off? (serious question. Now I thought that if we got the waves timed better we'd have a legit shot. But from what you're saying...)

It has a chance with these requirements: mid level winds overhead pressing down out of the north and a clean slp track below us. Only the cmc has that now. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not very different. Even though the ouput was better the inherent problem is identical. I don't think 6z should have any snow for us. 850 cold is weak AF and I'm sure other levels like 800, 925, etc are also going to have their own issues. Deep cold is nearly always a requirement with a southern stream wave. We haven't had deep cold since the first 10 days of Dec. A good rule of thumb is we need 850s to be -5 on approach and the 0c line at least in central VA but NC is better. 

Can a wave on a boundary work? Absolutely but not with marginal air. We need 2013-14 air for that scenario imo

I believe it was the ‘13-‘14 year that started the hype of the Polar Vortex. It became part of everyday vocabulary that winter because it split and caused so much cold air and basically acted as a substitute for a -NAO.  It’s not budging from the Arctic, so that’s not helpful. 

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So do you think this has potential to trend positively, or should we write it off still? (I'm a bit confused...I thought that better timing of the waves would produce a better result)

Neither. Just sit back and wait until all models look the same. Nothing will be decided in advance until we have that. Based on recent runs we aren't remotely close to consensus yet. Just watch and understand that this is not an easy way to get anything. Even if the mids are good, what will the surface look like?

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Neither. Just sit back and wait until all models look the same. Nothing will be decided in advance until we have that. Based on recent runs we aren't remotely close to consensus yet. Just watch and understand that this is not an easy way to get anything. Even if the mids are good, what will the surface look like?

It's really astounding how the CMC, GFS, ICON are all semi close to an event, at least for northern areas, while the EURO is like on a completely different planet. 

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Checking under the hood of the cmc, here's surface temps at 7am thurs with precip knocking on the door. How snowy does this look?
gem_T2m_neus_21.png&key=bd1817e81b2930893bed36d58470ccc189b1a0ad225cc4d18fe93c8ab76bd0b4
I think if things stay the say they are or slighty improve....you would see an improvement with the temps
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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Checking under the hood of the cmc, here's surface temps at 7am thurs with precip knocking on the door. How snowy does this look?

gem_T2m_neus_21.png

True, but if we have northerly winds and boundary pressing in from the north, lpc tracking south of us,  it wouldn't really matter once precip started, right?  

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Just now, Ji said:
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Checking under the hood of the cmc, here's surface temps at 7am thurs with precip knocking on the door. How snowy does this look?
gem_T2m_neus_21.png&key=bd1817e81b2930893bed36d58470ccc189b1a0ad225cc4d18fe93c8ab76bd0b4

I think if things stay the say they are or slighty improve....you would see an improvement with the temps

Yea, I'm not poo pooing anything. Just being realistic at D5. Maybe this is the one that hits on all luck cylinders. I'm not making any definitive statements. Just pointing out the issues that need to be overcome beyond a snowmap

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1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

True, but if we have northerly winds and boundary pressing in from the north, lpc tracking south of us,  it wouldn't really matter once precip started, right?  

It's possible but my yard has seen its share of rain with 35-38 surface and good mids this year. This is another setup where the northern tier can pull something off while I shovel rain... again

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4 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

I'm only looking at TT 24hr maps but the EURO didn't make any positive trends. Maybe worse? 

Its about the same sensible weather wise. We aren't close to sniffing frozen.

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Its about the same sensible weather wise. We aren't close to sniffing frozen.
I dont buy outliers...

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
Its about the same sensible weather wise. We aren't close to sniffing frozen.

I dont buy outliers...

Yeah I don't buy the CMC either.

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15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Maybe we can get 5/50 EPS members to give us snow this run. Plenty of time for incremental improvement.

Gefs looks horrible for next week and no improvement through d16.

itsnothappening.gif

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

It's possible but my yard has seen its share of rain with 35-38 surface and good mids this year. This is another setup where the northern tier can pull something off while I shovel rain... again

The northern tier hasnt been shoveling anything this year either.

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Y’all still here chasing fantasy patterns and fake snow :lmao:

 

I'm only kidding! Anyone placing bets on March delivering SOMETHING!?!

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24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The northern tier hasnt been shoveling anything this year either.

They got a decent storm in Jan. Warning level accums in some places. I think md line folks are all close to or above 10" on the year. 

On topic... 12gefs made more than a little shift towards the euro op. Euro seems set on a west track. Could be wrong but it appears there's some convergence toward that solution

VfyzGjF.png

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8 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Y’all still here chasing fantasy patterns and fake snow :lmao:

 

I'm only kidding! Anyone placing bets on March delivering SOMETHING!?!

MARCH? there's 21 days left in this month:D

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16 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro has 29 and 35 as high for jyo Friday and Saturday

What do we say? Get the cold established first then take our chances with disturbances moving across.

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14 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Y’all still here chasing fantasy patterns and fake snow :lmao:

 

I'm only kidding! Anyone placing bets on March delivering SOMETHING!?!

Heck no...if we won't be able to pull if off now...hard to imagine March would be any different! (not to mention...I hate tracking in March--Daylight Savings Time makes evening model watching a pain!)

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I'll consider jumping out of this threat if the rest of guidance converges on a cutter tomorrow...It's a shame. Saw the suppressed looks early and thought we'd have something a little better to work with...this is probably our only window. Probably nothing else after that (unless we get any chance the following we get any more tiny windows before the 20th). BWI would finish tied for lowest snowfall, I believe...(1.8") hope we can get something worth an inch or two...

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Euro with another cutter for Wed/Thurs.  

Wash/Rinse/Repeat this winter.

And last winter as well.  Also, the cold / dry and then warm / wet seems to be resonating as well. I do believe it is a pattern that produces this repeating cycle for us.

Looking at the AO it takes a dive from +5,  but down only to around +1 and then back up again. Models last week with a weakening and then re-strengthening seem to be correct so far. 

Meanwhile what a slap in the face.  

 

 

 

 

 

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