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Roger Smith

February 2020 temperature forecast contest

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Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(deadline 06z Sat Feb 1st)

good luck !!

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

3.5      3.2      2.7       1.5      1.6      0.7          0.2      0.3     -1.0 

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On 1/28/2020 at 3:43 AM, Roger Smith said:

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(deadline 06z Sat Feb 1st)

good luck !!

DCA +5, NYC +4, BOS +3.5, ORD +4, ATL +5, IAH +3, DEN +1, PHX, -.5, SEA -2

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Why do we even have a minus sign on our keyboards? That is the burning question ..

 

+0.3 _ +0.1 _ --0.2 __ --0.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +7.0 _ +4.0 _ +6.3

off to deal with the inevitable avalanches

  • Haha 1

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 4.6      4.2      4.0        2.7      3.8     3.4        -2.5     -1.7     0.8 

 

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Here's an update on the snowfall contest

FORECASTER _________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF____ DEN _  SEA _ BTV

___ Snowfall to date (Feb 29) ___ 0.6 __ 4.8 _ 15.1 ___ 26.9 __36.6 _ 62.5 ___ 46.4 __ 0.7 _ 63.0

Tom __________________________ 27.6 _ 48.1 _ 59.8 ___ 44.5 _ 39.8 _ 97.6 ___ 68.6 __ 4.8 _ 85.1

wxallannj _____________________ 22.4 _ 33.5 _ 44.7 ___ 38,9 _ 38.8 _ 69.6 ___ 41.3 __ 7.2 _ 79.4

wxdude64 ____________________ 20.6 _ 42.5 _ 54.1 ___ 50.6 _ 52.7 _100.9 ___ 69.8 __ 9.6 _ 97.4

BKViking ______________________19.0 _ 36.0 _ 51.0 ___ 42.0 _ 29.0 _ 84.0 ___ 55.0 __ 8.0 _ 77.0

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 15.8 _ 31.2 _ 47.7 ___ 42.2 _ 52.6 _ 91.3 ___ 61.1 __10.4 _ 88.8

Roger Smith __________________ 15.5 _ 38.5 _ 55.8 ___ 60.5 _ 60.2 _102.5 ___109.7__ 7.5 _110.5 

RodneyS ______________________14.4 _ 25.1 _ 40.0 ___ 35.0 _ 38.0 _100.0 ___ 80.0 __ 4.0 _ 88.0

Scotty Lightning _______________12.0 _ 24.0 _ 36.0 ___ 48.0 _ 67.0 _105.0 ___45.0 __14.0 _ 90.0

DonSutherland1 _______________10.0 _ 23.5 _ 36.0 ___ 30.0 _ 35.0 _110.0 ___ 83.0 __ 6.5 _ 90.0

___ consensus (mean) _________ 17.5 _ 33.6 _ 47.2 ____ 44.1 _ 45.9 __95.7 ___ 68.2 __ 8.0 _ 94.0

___ % to date ___________________ 3.5 __ 14 ___ 32 ______ 61 ___ 80 ___ 65 _____ 68 ___ 8.7 __ 67

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Table of entries for February 2020

FORECASTER ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Brian5671 ___________________ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 __ +4.0 _ +5.0 _ +3.0 ___ +1.0 _ --0.5 _ --2.0

RodneyS _____________________ +4.6 _ +4.2 _ +4.0 __ +2.7 _ +3.8 _ +3.4 ___ --2.5 _ --1.7 _ +0.8

DonSutherland.1 _____________ +3.5 _ +3.2 _ +2.7 __ +1.5 _ +1.6 _ +0.7 ___ +2.0 _ +3.0 _ --1.0

BKViking _____________________ +3.3 _ +3.0 _ +2.9 __ +0.6 _ +2.2 _ +1.2 ___ --2.0 _ --1.3 _ --2.2

wxallannj _____________________+3.2 _ +3.7 _ +3.1 __ +0.8 _ +2.4 _ +1.2 ___ --1.6 _ --1.1 _ --0.7

RJay _________________________ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ --1.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ___ --2.5 _ --1.5 _ --2.0

 

___ Consensus _______________ +3.0 _ +2.8 _ +2.7 __ +0.5 _ +2.1 _ +1.2 ___ --0.8 _ --0.8 _ --1.0

 

Tom _________________________ +2.9 _ +2.6 _ +2.6 __ +0.5 _ +2.1 _ +0.9 ___ +0.2 _ --0.6 _ --0.8

hudsonvalley21 ______________ +2.6 _ +2.5 _ +2.4 __ --0.5 _ +2.4 _ +1.7 ___ --1.1 _ --0.9 _ --1.4

Yoda ________ (-10%) _________ +1.6 _ +1.0 _ --0.2 __ --1.7 _ +3.1 _ +1.0 ___ --2.9 _ --1.2 _ --2.8

Scotty Lightning ______________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

wxdude64 ____ (-3%) __________+0.5 _ +0.3 _ --0.3 __ --1.1 _ +1.3 _ +0.8 ___ --0.5 _ --0.7 _ --1.1

Roger Smith __________________ +0.3 _ +0.1 _ --0.2 __ --0.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +7.0 _ +4.0 _ +6.3

___ Normal _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Consensus is the median of twelve forecasts so the average of 6th and 7th ranked forecasts.

Highest and lowest forecasts color coded, but Normal has coldest forecast for DCA, NYC, ATL and IAH. 

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Whoops as well... if it's too late for Feb than it's too late... but here's my entry if its accepted with all penalties of being way late of course 

DCA +1.6

NYC +1.0

BOS -0.2

ORD -1.7

ATL +3.1

IAH +1.0

DEN -2.9

PHX -1.2

SEA -2.8

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Hey yoda, sorry I didn't get back to you, this is my first time back into the thread since a few hours before you posted. Our late penalties begin to increase just around when you posted, so you didn't do too badly on that, -10% and maybe your later entry gained you some of that back. Look for your entry in the table after I get going here, and I will re-set consensus. 

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____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_(9th) __ (8d) ______+9.3 _ +9.4 _ +8.8 __ +9.6 _ +7.7 _ +3.1 ___--3.6 _ --4.3 _ +0.1

(16th) __ (15d) ____ +7.0 _ +6.3 _ +6.3 __ +3.9 _ +6.4 _ +1.7 ___--6.1 _ --2.9 _ +0.2

(23rd) __ (22d) ____ +5.6 _ +4.8 _ +5.2 __ +2.7 _ +4.2 _ +1.4 ___--6.0 _ --0.6 _ +0.1

 

_(9th) __ (p 15d) ___+6.0 _ +5.0 _ +4.0 __ +4.0 _ +5.0 _ +2.0 ___--3.0 _ --3.0 __ 0.0

(16th) __ (p22d) ___+4.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 _ +3.5 _ +1.0 ___ --3.0 _ --1.5 _ --0.5

 

_(9th) __ (p 25d) ___+4.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 _ +4.0 _ +1.5 ___--1.0 _ --2.0 __+0.5

(16th) __ (p29d) ___ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +3.0 __ +3.0 _ +4.5 _ +1.5 ___--1.5 _ --0.5 __0.0

(23rd) __ (p29d) ___ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +4.0 __ +2.0 _ +4.0 _ +0.5 ___--4.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

(28th) __ (p29d) ___ +5.0 _ +5.0 _ +6.0 __ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +0.5 ___--4.5 _ --0.5 _ +0.5

Final anomalies ___ +4.8 _ +4.8 _ +6.1 __ +2.5 _ +2.7 _ +0.5 ___--4.4 _ --0.8 _ +0.2

(9th) __ The month has started out quite mild in the east and cold in the southwest, near average for SEA. The coming week is likely to cut into the larger anomalies with a colder period expected in the east by mid-week. The projections for the last part of the outlook are based on a continuation of trends established next week.

(28th) __ Have updated the most likely projections using 27d CF6 and 28th climate reports. Provisional scoring to follow. 

(Mar 1st) _ Final anomalies are now posted, including  BOS which had earlier posted with 29th missing. Scoring is now entirely finalized and I will generate annual totals later today.

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Final scoring for February 2020

Scoring based on final values for February as shown in the previous post. Top scores in bold, warmest and coldest color codes still apply to this table. 

DEN has reverted to normal scoring from original "max score 60" rule as the maximum raw score improved to 70. 

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTALS

RodneyS __________________ 96 _ 88 _ 69 __ 253 __ 96 _ 78 _ 42 __ 216 __ 469 __ 62 _ 82 _ 88 __ 232 ___ 701

wxallannj __________________68 _ 78 _ 51 __ 197 __ 66 _ 94 _ 86 __ 246 __ 443 __ 44 _ 94 _ 82 __ 220 ___ 663

BKViking __________________ 70 _ 64 _ 47 __ 181 __ 62 _ 90 _ 86 __ 238 __ 419 __ 52 _ 90 _ 52 __ 194 ___ 613

___ Consensus ____________ 64 _ 60 _ 43 __ 167 __ 60 _ 88 _ 86 __ 234 __ 401 __ 28 _100 _ 76 __ 204 ___ 605

Tom ______________________ 62 _ 56 _ 41 __ 159 __ 60 _ 88 _ 92 __ 240 __ 399 __ 08 _ 96 _ 80 __ 184 ___ 583

RJay ______________________ 64 _ 64 _ 49 __ 177 __ 20 _ 86 _ 90 __ 196 __ 373 __ 62 _ 86 _ 56 __ 204 ___ 577

Brian5671 _________________ 96 _ 84 _ 59 __ 239 __ 70 _ 54 _ 50 __ 174 __ 413 __ 00 _ 94 _ 56 __ 150 ___ 563

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 56 _ 54 _ 37 __ 147 __ 40 _ 94 _ 76 __ 210 __ 357 __ 34 _ 98 _ 68 __ 200 ___ 557

DonSutherland.1 __________ 74 _ 68 _ 43 __ 185 __ 80 _ 78 _ 96 __ 254 __ 439 __ 00 _ 24 _ 76 __ 100 ___ 539

Scotty Lightning ___________ 24 _ 24 _ 10 __ 058 __ 60 _ 76 _ 80 __ 216 __ 274 __ 02 _ 84 _ 96 __ 182 ___ 456

Yoda ______________________ 36 _ 24 _ 00 __ 060 __ 16 _ 92 _ 90 __ 198 __ 258 __ 70 _ 92 _ 40 __ 202_(460)

_________ (-10%) ___________ 32 _ 22 _ 00 __ 054 __ 14 _ 83 _ 81 __ 178 __ 232 __ 63 _ 83 _ 36 __ 182 ___ 414

wxdude64 _________________14 _ 10 _ 00 __ 024 __ 28 _ 72 _ 94 __ 194 __ 218 __ 22 _ 98 _ 74 __ 194_(412)

____________ (-3%) __________14 _ 10 _ 00 __ 024 __ 27 _ 70 _ 91 __ 188 __ 212 __ 21 _ 95 _ 72 __ 188 ___ 400

___ Normal ________________04 _ 04 _ 00 __ 008 __ 50 _ 46 _ 90 __ 186 __ 194 __ 12 _ 84 _ 96 __ 192 ___ 386

Roger Smith _______________10 _ 06 _ 00 __ 016 __ 42 _ 76 _ 80 __ 198 __ 214 __ 00 _ 04 _ 00 __ 004 ___ 218

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

__ Extreme forecast report __

DCA, NYC, BOS, IAH and DEN qualified for an extreme forecast.

DCA (+4.8) _ Brian 5671 (+5.0) has a tie with RodneyS at +4.6.

RodneyS will take NYC (+4.8) and BOS (+6.1).

DonSutherland1 (+0.7) will take IAH with the lowest forecast still a bit higher than the outcome of +0.5. 

For DEN, yoda has the high score for coldest forecast and after late penalties remains a point ahead of tied RodneyS and RJay, so that will count as a win for yoda. 

The other locations appear headed for a high score near our consensus, so no extreme forecasts at ORD, ATL, PHX or SEA. 

=========================================================

 

 

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< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Feb) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > >

Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. 

 

FORECASTER ________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

 

RodneyS _____________________168_143 _121 __ 432 __167_149_116 __ 432 __ 864 __114_140_134__388_____1252

wxallannj ____________________ 110 _123 _ 99 __ 332 __ 73 _129 _110 __ 312 __ 644 __ 88_174_108__370 _____1014

Brian5671 ____________________192_169_119__ 480 __ 70 _ 153_114 __ 337 __ 817 __ 04 _ 96 _ 56 __ 156 _____ 973

RJay _________________________ 134 _141_105__ 380 __ 47 _117_104 __ 268 __ 648 __ 98 _134_ 56 __ 288 _____ 936

BKViking _____________________ 100 _ 89 _ 87 __ 276 __ 67 _121 _116 __ 304 __ 580 __ 88 _162_ 72 __ 322 _____ 902

 

___ Consensus ________________ 94 _ 81 _ 75 __ 250 __ 67 _119_116 __ 302 __ 552 __ 64 _172_108 __ 344 _____ 896

 

Tom ___________________________ 78 _ 67 _ 57 __ 202 __ 73 _115_108__ 296 __ 498 __ 56 _184_112 __ 352 _____ 850

hudsonvalley21 ________________ 70 _ 75 _ 61 __ 206 __ 65 _117_ 86 __ 268 __ 474 __ 78 _178_108 __ 364 _____ 838

Don Sutherland.1 ______________104 _101_ 75 __ 280 __ 97 _ 89_100 __ 286 __ 566 __ 36 _ 86 _124 __ 246 _____ 812

Scotty Lightning ________________34 _ 29 _ 15 __ 078 __ 60 _ 97_114 __ 271 __ 349 __ 62 _172_146 __ 380 _____ 729

yoda ___________________________64 _ 43 _ 16 __ 123 __ 18_118 _125 __ 261 __ 384 __ 71 _161_ 70 __ 302 _____ 686

wxdude64 _____________________ 34 _ 22 _ 08 __ 064 __ 35 _103_131__ 269 __ 333 __ 41 _169_100__ 310 _____ 643

___ Normal _____________________04 _ 04 _ 00 __ 008 __ 50 _ 46 _ 94 __ 190 __ 198 __ 34 _ 176_146__ 356 _____ 554

Roger Smith ___________________ 26 _ 20 _ 28^__ 074 __ 47 _107_ 88 __ 242 __ 316 __ 36 _ 72 _ 30 __ 138 _____ 454

JakkelWx _ (1/2) ________________28 _ 21 _ 40 __ 089 __ 07 _ 37 _ 48 __ 092 __ 181 __ 12 _ 88 _ 06 __ 106 _____ 287

rclab _ (1/2) ____________________05 _ 00 _ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 __ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250

dwave _ (1/2) __________________ 72 _ 75 _ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 __ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292

Rhino16 _ (1/2) ________________ 00 _ 05 _ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 __ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178

==============================================================================

Extreme forecast standings

14 of 18 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 12 for warmest and two for coldest.

FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May etc ___ Standings to date

Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 5 - 0

RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 5 - 0

Scotty Lightning __2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 2 - 0

RClab ____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 2 - 0

DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 0

yoda _____________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 0

Tom _____________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 0

Normal ___________1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _________ 1 - 1

================================================================================

BEST SCORES -- Totals for January and February

Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. Only those who have any best scores are listed.

Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus

achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also.

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months

RodneyS ___________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Jan, Feb

wxallannj ___________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Tom ________________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

DonSutherland1 ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Scotty Lightning ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0

yoda _______________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

_____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0

RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

 

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Four Seasons -- Winter 2019-20 scoring

This year, I will go back to a simpler format for this contest within a contest. Just points for total score ... ten for top score, seven for second highest, and down from there to one point for eighth (nothing for 9th or 10th this time). So this is the first of four scoring rounds in the four seasons contest. 

FORECASTER ___________________ Dec-Jan-Feb total points _____ Four seasons points

RodneyS ________________________ 1751 ________________________ 10

wxallannj _______________________ 1615 __________________________ 7

BKViking _______________________ 1483 __________________________ 6

DonSutherland 1 ________________1391 __________________________ 5

hudsonvalley21 _________________ 1388 __________________________4

Tom ____________________________ 1296 __________________________3

Scotty Lightning ________________ 1220 __________________________ 2

wxdude64 ______________________ 1190 __________________________1

________________________________________________

Consensus with 1410 would also score 5. 

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