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Kmlwx

2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread

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Not sure what round it is but it can stop anytime now lol..I think it finally has.

3.4"

 2 day total of 4.85"

eta- had another storm after midnight, so the 'severe' event total is 3.9", and 5.35" since Wed night.

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Last night was easily hands down the best active weather day I experienced in many years. We are at the beach and when I saw Baltimore County under a tornado warning and listened to my friends tell me about the insane lightning show, it was my typical luck that I missed it.

But the line held and slowly made its way across the bay toward Rehoboth. The incoming storm at first was cool as the frequency of lightning was unbelievable. Flashes every 3 seconds or so. However then the incredibly frequent CG hits started encroaching and I had that “be careful what you wish for” moment. It was concerning !!! When the storm was finally overhead it was not as terrifying as the approach however.

So that would have been great all by itself. But then the phone alerted again with a warning an hour later for a second storm. I never get second storms.

This second storm was not as terrifying on approach , but when it was overhead.... holy hell. It lasted about 30 min and the last 10 minutes we must have had at least 100+ CG strikes within a mile of our house (or so it seemed). It was truly really scary and I’ve not felt that way in decades. We were bombarded with CG strikes.

We even had a third not as intense storm 45 min later after that one.

I can close the severe season on this summer now.


.

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9 hours ago, CAPE said:

Not sure what round it is but it can stop anytime now lol..I think it finally has.

3.4"

 2 day total of 4.85"

eta- had another storm after midnight, so the 'severe' event total is 3.9", and 5.35" since Wed night.

Gotta be the most lightning we've ever had in a very long time. Constant round after round after round of lightning. The third storm was actually the most intense in terms of lightning here, surprisingly. Perfect conditions came together for multiple rounds

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4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Gotta be the most lightning we've ever had in a very long time. Constant round after round after round of lightning. The third storm was actually the most intense in terms of lightning here, surprisingly. Perfect conditions came together for multiple rounds

Subtropical/tropical airmess = big lightning

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/95GL01036

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1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

Gotta be the most lightning we've ever had in a very long time. Constant round after round after round of lightning. The third storm was actually the most intense in terms of lightning here, surprisingly. Perfect conditions came together for multiple rounds

We have had several good storms this summer, and quite a few with frequent lightning. I had that one back in July that blew a tree down. Sometimes we can go through a whole season with nothing but lame garden variety storms.

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This was from the first tornado warned storm in Carroll County yesterday

 

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18 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

Love how it starts to split as soon as it nears my house. Plenty close enough for loud booms here and there. Constant low rolling thunder now.

Edit: Complete split. Just moderate rain atm. Heavy occasionally but not much else.

Final grade looks to be a D+

Never speak too soon

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1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

Surprise!

 

        yeah, CAMs have a good signal for storms later this afternoon, mainly for DC and points south.    As SPC notes, instability is weak, but shear is fairly good, and the forecast soundings show some good DCAPE,  so I guess I agree that some gusty winds are possible.

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25 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Nice line forming from Fauquier down into Culpeper and movie ESE toward 95 corridor. Remains to be seen if these go severe...... 

Just missed it here.  By like 10 miles.  Blew up just SE.  Looks pretty solid. 

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Line came thru as gusty showers. Wind gust to 37 mph, picked 0.31" of rain and some thunder and lightning. Looking forward to the refreshing air and lower dewpoints over the next few days.

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A damn good thread on improving tornado warning accuracy, it includes a couple of radar grabs from Frederick County, MD. Big takeaway is this research so far is only valuable if the storm is within 60 km (37 mi) from the radar site. 

 

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7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

A damn good thread on improving tornado warning accuracy, it includes a couple of radar grabs from Frederick County, MD. Big takeaway is this research so far is only valuable if the storm is within 60 km (37 mi) from the radar site. 

 

I’ve actually read the papers on this one.  Effectively, they define a vector from the big raindrop region (Zdr) to the heavy precipitation region (Kdp).  If the vector is closer to 90 degrees from storm motion, there is much more likely to be a tornado.  The thought is that a narrower vector puts the Kdp region (negative buoyancy from the heavy rain) too close to the updraft.

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Hmmmmm... from this mornings LWX AFD:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid-upper level ridge over the region early on Sunday will be moving
offshore as it feels pressure from deepening trof over the
ncntrl CONUS. Expect highs to reach aoa 80F on Sunday. There
have been some substantial changes in the past 12 hrs on latest
forecasts with respect to next upper level trof fcst to amplify
across the mid- section of the country. 00Z ECMWF shows a slower
and much deeper trof evolving into a closed (cutoff) low over
the mid-south which results in a more intense sfc low pressure
area over the TN Valley that tracks NE and deepens rapidly as it
moves from OH into southwestern Ontario. This scenario would
result in a potentially significant severe wx threat to our area
late Tue and Tue evening as wind fields aloft strengthen
dramatically (500 mb wind speeds anywhere between 70-100 kt
depending on model of choice). The associated cold front looks
to cross the area around 06Z Wed with conditions turning much
cooler for the second half of next week. I would say there is a
high degree of uncertainty with regards to this potential event
given large swings in model guidance with strength and timing of
sfc and upper level features, but it bears watching as it has
potential to be a high impact severe wx event.

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Don't have a lot of time right now, but the 00z Euro H5 maps have a ln overall resemblance to the reanalysis maps from Sept 24 2001. Mainly in that they both have a deep trough axis cutting through the TN area and ridging out west. 

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Sept 18 2012 is showing up in CIPS. That was a day 2 hatched to day 1 moderate day for us. 10 percent tor and 45 percent wind. Lots of reports too. 

The SE sector does show 2001 at the number 2 analog spot.

I'm officially interested. 

And CIPS is based on the GFS not even the Euro....... 

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Hope we can get this to bump back 24 hrs. I'm down at Wallops next Tuesday PM for my *hopefully* first Antares launch and the upper level winds would not be good right now.

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51 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hope we can get this to bump back 24 hrs. I'm down at Wallops next Tuesday PM for my *hopefully* first Antares launch and the upper level winds would not be good right now.

Knowing our luck it will slow but only to Wed AM and ruin the entire event due to bad timing. 

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23 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Knowing our luck it will slow but only to Wed AM and ruin the entire event due to bad timing. 

I'm going to be selfish. So long as I get my Antares launch, I don't care what happens.

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37 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm going to be selfish. So long as I get my Antares launch, I don't care what happens.

Did you see the challenger documentary on Netflix?  I thought it was excellent!

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