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IrishRob17

Interior NW & NE Burbs 2020

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9 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

39F is a fantastic temp to start off a front-end thump :axe:

Yea I thought this might thump north of 84 for a few hours tonight but the surface temps look awful everywhere

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32 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea I thought this might thump north of 84 for a few hours tonight but the surface temps look awful everywhere

Currently 41/27 here. It will be a nice thump of rain.   Upton is optimistic tho.

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
727 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2020
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Updated the forecast to delay the timing of PCPN onset. Still
some dry air to overcome before it reaches the ground. Also
added the mention of a chance of sleet mixing in wherever PCPN
begins as rain based on thermal profiles aloft, anticipating a
cooling of the column as it saturates.

A warm front will approach from the southwest tonight.
Isentropic lift along and ahead of the boundary will allow
clouds to increase, lower, and thicken. Weak low pressure over
Louisiana as of 18Z will ride along this boundary and track
toward the area. Light precipitation is expected after 00Z, with
chances for precipitation increasing from west to east
overnight. The best chances for precipitation look to be between
1 am and 7 am Thursday, this is when lift would be the greatest
across the area, with the warm front just to our south and the
low to the southwest somewhere over or near Pennsylvania.
Therefore, maturate to perhaps briefly heavy precipitation is
possible during this time frame.

As for precipitation type, plain rain is expected across Long
Island, New York City, and much of northeast New Jersey and
coastal southern Connecticut. Precipitation may start off as all
snow across portions of the interior, such as northern portions
of the Lower Hudson Valley, and inland southwest Connecticut.
The all snow line may head south a few miles due to dry air in
the lower levels leading to column cooling. A wintry mix, mainly
of rain and snow, can be expected between these locations.
Isolated areas may see some sleet mix in and freezing rain, but
again, this will be patchy in nature, and an SPS may be issued
later tonight to cover this possibility for inland areas.

Strong southwest winds aloft will bring in warmer air rather
quickly, with almost the entire forecast area changing over to
plain rain a few hours after midnight tonight, with any patchy
areas of freezing rain or wintry mix that remain in the far
interior or higher elevations changing to plain rain by daybreak
Thursday.

As for snowfall totals, northern Orange county may see between 1
and 2 inches, while isolated areas such as the higher elevations
may see these amounts as well. Elsewhere, under an inch is
expected before the changeover.

 

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12 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Currently 41/27 here. It will be a nice thump of rain.   Upton is optimistic tho.

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
727 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2020
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Updated the forecast to delay the timing of PCPN onset. Still
some dry air to overcome before it reaches the ground. Also
added the mention of a chance of sleet mixing in wherever PCPN
begins as rain based on thermal profiles aloft, anticipating a
cooling of the column as it saturates.

A warm front will approach from the southwest tonight.
Isentropic lift along and ahead of the boundary will allow
clouds to increase, lower, and thicken. Weak low pressure over
Louisiana as of 18Z will ride along this boundary and track
toward the area. Light precipitation is expected after 00Z, with
chances for precipitation increasing from west to east
overnight. The best chances for precipitation look to be between
1 am and 7 am Thursday, this is when lift would be the greatest
across the area, with the warm front just to our south and the
low to the southwest somewhere over or near Pennsylvania.
Therefore, maturate to perhaps briefly heavy precipitation is
possible during this time frame.

As for precipitation type, plain rain is expected across Long
Island, New York City, and much of northeast New Jersey and
coastal southern Connecticut. Precipitation may start off as all
snow across portions of the interior, such as northern portions
of the Lower Hudson Valley, and inland southwest Connecticut.
The all snow line may head south a few miles due to dry air in
the lower levels leading to column cooling. A wintry mix, mainly
of rain and snow, can be expected between these locations.
Isolated areas may see some sleet mix in and freezing rain, but
again, this will be patchy in nature, and an SPS may be issued
later tonight to cover this possibility for inland areas.

Strong southwest winds aloft will bring in warmer air rather
quickly, with almost the entire forecast area changing over to
plain rain a few hours after midnight tonight, with any patchy
areas of freezing rain or wintry mix that remain in the far
interior or higher elevations changing to plain rain by daybreak
Thursday.

As for snowfall totals, northern Orange county may see between 1
and 2 inches, while isolated areas such as the higher elevations
may see these amounts as well. Elsewhere, under an inch is
expected before the changeover.

 

It's even mixing with sleet down here when the precip is heavier so I think you'll definitely see some evaporational cooling and frozen up there, whether the surface temps really allow for 1-2 inches seems unlikely but we'll see.

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I have light to moderate white rain, temp is on the way down and is hovering at 32 at the moment but with a mostly south wind I'm questioning whether it goes any lower. 

While it's always nice to see flakes it kinda sux when you know it's futile. I think I'm over this winter.

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It's coming down pretty hard now, enough to whiten the grass and even for flakes to linger on the pavement for a few moments before vanishing. If CC is to be believed, rain should be approaching 84 as I post. Do I stay up another 90 minutes to get the measurement for my records? decisions, decisions...

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5 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

It's coming down pretty hard now, enough to whiten the grass and even for flakes to linger on the pavement for a few moments before vanishing. If CC is to be believed, rain should be approaching 84 as I post. Do I stay up another 90 minutes to get the measurement for my records? decisions, decisions...

If snow falls in the forest and there's no one there to measure it before it melts, did it really fall?

The decision should have been an easy one. I hope you made the right one.

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I was going to do the right thing and measure before the rain but... sleep. My last eyeball measurement was about a half inch but it was snowing pretty hard at that point. Now, after ~8 hours of rain and fog there's still a nice coating on natural and elevated surfaces, pavement never got covered. It's still 32° so maybe it'll hold on for a bit longer.

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6 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

If snow falls in the forest and there's no one there to measure it before it melts, did it really fall?

The decision should have been an easy one. I hope you made the right one.

You should know me better than that ;)

Luckily it changed over by 1:30, which isn't too bad. I've stayed up later than that for Euro runs and election results.

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4 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Anywhere in the HV get over an inch from this?

Under-reporting will have been a big issue with this event because of the rapid changeover at possibly the most inopportune time of the day... 1-4 am. Most people didn't measure until 6 or 7 am, according to the PNS reports. 

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I looked at cams and by noon it looked like the rain line was just about to Saratoga, maybe 1 exit south of town. The road was completely covered from there up right down to the Thruway.

I had solid mist all afternoon. I hate this stuff, it doesn't measure up to squat but it thoroughly soaks everything and keeps it wet and makes mud, lots of mud. The coming dry and cool ought to do wonders to dry out the surface, boy I hope so.

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Sorta a bummer my official last winter here has been a total dud.

what the heck happen. Have not revised my season total but only at around 25 inches. All I know is all the experts & journals can go to hell. 

got a tweet tug hill is also having a really bad season!!!

 

 

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7 hours ago, Animal said:

Sorta a bummer my official last winter here has been a total dud.

what the heck happen. Have not revised my season total but only at around 25 inches. All I know is all the experts & journals can go to hell. 

got a tweet tug hill is also having a really bad season!!!

 

 

Where you relocating? We have a lot of family in north Georgia, Alpharetta, Canton, Cumming and Jasper. Great area if you’re still looking. 

Isn’t a horrible season in the tug hill 150-200 inches? I feel terrible for them, thoughts and prayers. 

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