HVSnowLover Posted February 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: 39F is a fantastic temp to start off a front-end thump Yea I thought this might thump north of 84 for a few hours tonight but the surface temps look awful everywhere Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 13, 2020 32 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea I thought this might thump north of 84 for a few hours tonight but the surface temps look awful everywhere Currently 41/27 here. It will be a nice thump of rain. Upton is optimistic tho. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 727 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Updated the forecast to delay the timing of PCPN onset. Still some dry air to overcome before it reaches the ground. Also added the mention of a chance of sleet mixing in wherever PCPN begins as rain based on thermal profiles aloft, anticipating a cooling of the column as it saturates. A warm front will approach from the southwest tonight. Isentropic lift along and ahead of the boundary will allow clouds to increase, lower, and thicken. Weak low pressure over Louisiana as of 18Z will ride along this boundary and track toward the area. Light precipitation is expected after 00Z, with chances for precipitation increasing from west to east overnight. The best chances for precipitation look to be between 1 am and 7 am Thursday, this is when lift would be the greatest across the area, with the warm front just to our south and the low to the southwest somewhere over or near Pennsylvania. Therefore, maturate to perhaps briefly heavy precipitation is possible during this time frame. As for precipitation type, plain rain is expected across Long Island, New York City, and much of northeast New Jersey and coastal southern Connecticut. Precipitation may start off as all snow across portions of the interior, such as northern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, and inland southwest Connecticut. The all snow line may head south a few miles due to dry air in the lower levels leading to column cooling. A wintry mix, mainly of rain and snow, can be expected between these locations. Isolated areas may see some sleet mix in and freezing rain, but again, this will be patchy in nature, and an SPS may be issued later tonight to cover this possibility for inland areas. Strong southwest winds aloft will bring in warmer air rather quickly, with almost the entire forecast area changing over to plain rain a few hours after midnight tonight, with any patchy areas of freezing rain or wintry mix that remain in the far interior or higher elevations changing to plain rain by daybreak Thursday. As for snowfall totals, northern Orange county may see between 1 and 2 inches, while isolated areas such as the higher elevations may see these amounts as well. Elsewhere, under an inch is expected before the changeover. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HVSnowLover Posted February 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Currently 41/27 here. It will be a nice thump of rain. Upton is optimistic tho. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 727 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Updated the forecast to delay the timing of PCPN onset. Still some dry air to overcome before it reaches the ground. Also added the mention of a chance of sleet mixing in wherever PCPN begins as rain based on thermal profiles aloft, anticipating a cooling of the column as it saturates. A warm front will approach from the southwest tonight. Isentropic lift along and ahead of the boundary will allow clouds to increase, lower, and thicken. Weak low pressure over Louisiana as of 18Z will ride along this boundary and track toward the area. Light precipitation is expected after 00Z, with chances for precipitation increasing from west to east overnight. The best chances for precipitation look to be between 1 am and 7 am Thursday, this is when lift would be the greatest across the area, with the warm front just to our south and the low to the southwest somewhere over or near Pennsylvania. Therefore, maturate to perhaps briefly heavy precipitation is possible during this time frame. As for precipitation type, plain rain is expected across Long Island, New York City, and much of northeast New Jersey and coastal southern Connecticut. Precipitation may start off as all snow across portions of the interior, such as northern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, and inland southwest Connecticut. The all snow line may head south a few miles due to dry air in the lower levels leading to column cooling. A wintry mix, mainly of rain and snow, can be expected between these locations. Isolated areas may see some sleet mix in and freezing rain, but again, this will be patchy in nature, and an SPS may be issued later tonight to cover this possibility for inland areas. Strong southwest winds aloft will bring in warmer air rather quickly, with almost the entire forecast area changing over to plain rain a few hours after midnight tonight, with any patchy areas of freezing rain or wintry mix that remain in the far interior or higher elevations changing to plain rain by daybreak Thursday. As for snowfall totals, northern Orange county may see between 1 and 2 inches, while isolated areas such as the higher elevations may see these amounts as well. Elsewhere, under an inch is expected before the changeover. It's even mixing with sleet down here when the precip is heavier so I think you'll definitely see some evaporational cooling and frozen up there, whether the surface temps really allow for 1-2 inches seems unlikely but we'll see. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2020 Wet-bulbed down to 34 but that's about all she wrote as it's close to saturation now. White rain ongoing Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gravitylover Posted February 13, 2020 I have light to moderate white rain, temp is on the way down and is hovering at 32 at the moment but with a mostly south wind I'm questioning whether it goes any lower. While it's always nice to see flakes it kinda sux when you know it's futile. I think I'm over this winter. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2020 It's coming down pretty hard now, enough to whiten the grass and even for flakes to linger on the pavement for a few moments before vanishing. If CC is to be believed, rain should be approaching 84 as I post. Do I stay up another 90 minutes to get the measurement for my records? decisions, decisions... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 13, 2020 It’s snowing in armonk with a temperature outside my window at 33.6 starting to whiten the ground Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 13, 2020 5 hours ago, Juliancolton said: It's coming down pretty hard now, enough to whiten the grass and even for flakes to linger on the pavement for a few moments before vanishing. If CC is to be believed, rain should be approaching 84 as I post. Do I stay up another 90 minutes to get the measurement for my records? decisions, decisions... If snow falls in the forest and there's no one there to measure it before it melts, did it really fall? The decision should have been an easy one. I hope you made the right one. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gravitylover Posted February 13, 2020 I was going to do the right thing and measure before the rain but... sleep. My last eyeball measurement was about a half inch but it was snowing pretty hard at that point. Now, after ~8 hours of rain and fog there's still a nice coating on natural and elevated surfaces, pavement never got covered. It's still 32° so maybe it'll hold on for a bit longer. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gravitylover Posted February 13, 2020 Just gross out there now. 33° with mixed regular and white rain with dense fog. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2020 6 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: If snow falls in the forest and there's no one there to measure it before it melts, did it really fall? The decision should have been an easy one. I hope you made the right one. You should know me better than that Luckily it changed over by 1:30, which isn't too bad. I've stayed up later than that for Euro runs and election results. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HVSnowLover Posted February 13, 2020 Anywhere in the HV get over an inch from this? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IrishRob17 Posted February 13, 2020 2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Anywhere in the HV get over an inch from this? Possibly. There was enough here that some of the roads were plowed. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2020 4 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Anywhere in the HV get over an inch from this? Under-reporting will have been a big issue with this event because of the rapid changeover at possibly the most inopportune time of the day... 1-4 am. Most people didn't measure until 6 or 7 am, according to the PNS reports. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gravitylover Posted February 15, 2020 I got down to 4° Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hitman Posted February 15, 2020 Down to 8, now up to 11. back in the hv. Bc had some snow at elevation but ‘nothing in town where it was in the mid 30s during the day. 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Animal Posted February 16, 2020 Light snow falling....winter rages on 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 17, 2020 Our area is in the jackpot zone for tomorrow. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gravitylover Posted February 18, 2020 Looks like it's a mile or 2 north of me Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Juliancolton Posted February 18, 2020 Not even a flake. I'm starting to get the feeling this winter sucks a little. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: Not even a flake. I'm starting to get the feeling this winter sucks a little. When events can't even live up to the very low bar of less than an inch it speaks volumes. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gravitylover Posted February 18, 2020 I looked at cams and by noon it looked like the rain line was just about to Saratoga, maybe 1 exit south of town. The road was completely covered from there up right down to the Thruway. I had solid mist all afternoon. I hate this stuff, it doesn't measure up to squat but it thoroughly soaks everything and keeps it wet and makes mud, lots of mud. The coming dry and cool ought to do wonders to dry out the surface, boy I hope so. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hitman Posted February 19, 2020 I try to stay positive, glass half full and what not, but this is brutal. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Juliancolton Posted February 19, 2020 24 minutes ago, Hitman said: I try to stay positive, glass half full and what not, but this is brutal. Stockpiling toasters now, just in case we make it three in a row next year. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Animal Posted February 19, 2020 Sorta a bummer my official last winter here has been a total dud. what the heck happen. Have not revised my season total but only at around 25 inches. All I know is all the experts & journals can go to hell. got a tweet tug hill is also having a really bad season!!! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 19, 2020 7 hours ago, Animal said: Sorta a bummer my official last winter here has been a total dud. what the heck happen. Have not revised my season total but only at around 25 inches. All I know is all the experts & journals can go to hell. got a tweet tug hill is also having a really bad season!!! Where you relocating? We have a lot of family in north Georgia, Alpharetta, Canton, Cumming and Jasper. Great area if you’re still looking. Isn’t a horrible season in the tug hill 150-200 inches? I feel terrible for them, thoughts and prayers. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hitman Posted February 22, 2020 18f here. Gorgeous out. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Juliancolton Posted February 24, 2020 You know the worst part about winters like this? You can't just put off yardwork until the spring because it's always the spring. There's just no excuse to procrastinate. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IrishRob17 Posted February 24, 2020 So are we thinking we are in a delayed but no denied pattern or is winter over? Please advise. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gravitylover Posted February 24, 2020 You need an excuse to procrastinate? You're still young, it gets easier Over I like 65 degree mt bike rides in February. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites