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IrishRob17

Interior NW & NE Burbs 2020

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Already down to 17 here. The surface ridge axis starts sliding offshore around 10z, so until that happens I don't really see any reason the temp shouldn't continue to gradually fall. 10-11F seems like a good guess for a low.

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Good Friday morning nw suburbs! It's Nov 20 and while no big snowstorms are outlooked here through November, it's not completely devoid of snow. 

A brief period of little or no accumulation for the I-84 corridor is "possible" 9A-3P Sunday. There may be another period of snow I-84 northward Wednesday morning, with less than 2" high terrain accumulation possible.  These are exceedingly minor events, if they were to occur but it's something that may briefly dress up the landscape, IF they were to occur. NO guarantee's.  This paragraph is based on 00z/20 multi model usage, leaning on the NAM-3K, UKMET, SPC SREF plumes and nearby ECMWF hints. 

 

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Snow is on the ground on Rt 2 heading east out of Albany. Coverage is solid over Petersburg Pass, mostly goes away in Williamstown/ N Adams but picks back up down Rt 8 into Pittsfield. It was nice to drive around as the sun was setting on the pass with it snow covered.

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30 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good Friday morning nw suburbs! It's Nov 20 and while no big snowstorms are outlooked here through November, it's not completely devoid of snow. 

A brief period of little or no accumulation for the I-84 corridor is "possible" 9A-3P Sunday. There may be another period of snow I-84 northward Wednesday morning, with less than 2" high terrain accumulation possible.  These are exceedingly minor events, if they were to occur but it's something that may briefly dress up the landscape, IF they were to occur. NO guarantee's.  This paragraph is based on 00z/20 multi model usage, leaning on the NAM-3K, UKMET, SPC SREF plumes and nearby ECMWF hints. 

 

We take.

thank you.

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31 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good Friday morning nw suburbs! It's Nov 20 and while no big snowstorms are outlooked here through November, it's not completely devoid of snow. 

A brief period of little or no accumulation for the I-84 corridor is "possible" 9A-3P Sunday. There may be another period of snow I-84 northward Wednesday morning, with less than 2" high terrain accumulation possible.  These are exceedingly minor events, if they were to occur but it's something that may briefly dress up the landscape, IF they were to occur. NO guarantee's.  This paragraph is based on 00z/20 multi model usage, leaning on the NAM-3K, UKMET, SPC SREF plumes and nearby ECMWF hints. 

 

Thanks for the heads up Walt, we know there’s no promises around here but something to keep an eye on. 

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Following up this Saturday morning nw suburbs! It's Nov 21 and while no big snowstorms are outlooked here through November, it's not necessarily completely devoid of snow. 

A brief period of ice pellets-flurries or freezing rain is possible for the I-84 high terrain corridor 9A-3P Sunday, especially Poconos and possibly extreme nw NJ/interior se NYS  There may be another period of snow I-84 northward Wednesday morning, with less than 1" high terrain accumulation possible (see 00z/21 UKMET).  These are exceedingly minor events, if they were to occur but it's something that may briefly spark mPING interest for the wintry weather diehards (me), IF they were to occur. NO guarantee's.  This paragraph is based on 00z/21 multi model usage, leaning on the NAM-3K, UKMET, SPC HREF.

Have added 06/21 NAM FGEN modeled prediction for ~9A Sunday. Right now that says little or nothing for I84 but if that happens to extend a little further east (red is FGEN) in future modeling-reality, then we're in. Thermal profile for MSV (Monticello NY) suggests ice pellets or freezing rain, BUT, if the fgen lift is stronger then the column cools the warmer dryer layer near 850 MB seen around 15z (10A) and suddenly we have a few minutes of snow. For now, it's a long shot and all I can excited about in the next few days. When you look at the KMSV profile, any precip before 7PM Sunday night certainly can freeze over the higher terrain (sub 32F profile). The question then becomes, is the modeling a touch too cold there in the NYS high terrain?  (I also use KMSV for extreme nw NJ near State Route 23 (High Point-Montague and Wantage). 655A/21

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Pretty dead on the NYC forum the past day or so... yep, not much to talk about. There is a 2 hour northeastward transitory window of opportunity for the higher terrain of the I84 corridor to see a showery spritz of mPING noticeable ice pellets-flurries, or freezing rain sprinkles, between 8A-2P. That band as this is written 647AM  is now trying to grow east -northeastward between I78-I80 in PA-NJ.  So far, dry air at 850MB is evaporating whatever is trying to reach the ground. This band of showery very light precipitation should gradually organize a bit more as it passes out of ne PA/se NYS after 1030AM and heads toward ALB-CEF. That's as exciting as i see it on front end wintry events. The Wed morning possibility still exists, but chances are 80% that it won't occur. sighhhh

 

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Pretty dead on the NYC forum the past day or so... yep, not much to talk about. There is a 2 hour northeastward transitory window of opportunity for the higher terrain of the I84 corridor to see a showery spritz of mPING noticeable ice pellets-flurries, or freezing rain sprinkles, between 8A-2P. That band as this is written 647AM  is now trying to grow east -northeastward between I78-I80 in PA-NJ.  So far, dry air at 850MB is evaporating whatever is trying to reach the ground. This band of showery very light precipitation should gradually organize a bit more as it passes out of ne PA/se NYS after 1030AM and heads toward ALB-CEF. That's as exciting as i see it on front end wintry events. The Wed morning possibility still exists, but chances are 80% that it won't occur. sighhhh

 

There are many people on here that aren’t weather fans, just snow or storm fans so the board certainly has its slow periods. I appreciate your posts and continue to learn from them so thank you.  It certainly looks and feels like late November out there this morning with steel gray skies and 35/30 currently. 

 

 

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Hi... After review of what happened today... not much, but a very brief period of ice pellets did occur in at least some spots of our NYC nw-ne suburbs forum; just north of I84 this morning trending to a brief mix of snow further north of POU.  Models tend to underplay the very minor lead thrusts of warmer air arriving and so, am glad  a few on here may have seen 5 minutes of wintry weather.

We'll give it another try Wednesday morning near daybreak. Very brief and overall inconsequential but some of the modeling is coming back south.  We'll see what happens. 

Meanwhile a few flurries in the wake of the cold front tomorrow=Monday,  may cross some of our higher terrain late Monday or Tuesday. 

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Good Monday morning all (Nov 23),  Yesterday morning had the slightest of an ice pellet-snow shower north of I-84 per reports here and  mPing. We're going to try to out-perform that Wednesday morning and a little caution is urged on a big warmup for Thanksgiving morning n of I-84. 

So, no big snowstorms foreseen in November I-84 northward, but eventually the more seasonable first half of December might produce something that is more than 3" for I-84.
 
Tuesday: Maybe a flurry? (Accumulative snow showers concentrated near Oneida Lake in NYS).
 
Wednesday: A short period of snow or flurries is anticipated between 1AM and 10AM, that could produce a covering (less than 1"), especially Poconos, CT/MA and the Adirondacks. See UKMET snow cover graphic which includes snow showers in upper NYS today and tomorrow. The idea is the southern edge of the snow...while it may not be that far south, at least a flurry is anticipated that far south, per increasingly south modeling of the past 24 hours.  
 
Which also tells me, that it may be quite cool on Thanksgiving n of I84...high terrain of slight icing interest there. For now, that is an outlier possibility for our NYC forum northern fringe.
 
Wind: will mention for entire forum Nov 30 or Dec 1. 
 
Looking forward to see how this all turns out. 
 

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