snowman19 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: that is not a good pattern. any storm that amplifies is going to cut Yea, I was confused as to why it was being called a good pattern. It’s strong -PNA/RNA, +AO, +NAO, neutral EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yes but that was a pattern that was bad for the coast. It was good for areas to the far northwest of us. Yeah, all cutters and huggers. Only 1.9“of snow at at JFK for 8.03 of total precipitation in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yea, I was confused as to why it was being called a good pattern. It’s strong -PNA/RNA, +AO, +NAO, neutral EPO and a strong PV to boot. Not exactly the stuff of big winters around here...Great pattern for the Rocky Mt Ski resorts Going to need a monster -EPO to overcome the other garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, forkyfork said: any storm that cuts west of us could easily bring in more record warmth. look at that trough to our west Sure over the next 5 days when there a 4SD ridge in the east , I think I hit 70 in CNJ. But then hat ridge is pressed down into Cuba day 11 - 15. If you cut any storm in even the best pattern we can go to 50. But the EPS accelerated kicking that trough off the W/C by day 10. It`s p7, the trough doesn`t come all the way east. But here is the EPS storm track post d 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Yeah, all cutters and huggers. Only 1.9“of snow at at JFK for 8.03 of total precipitation in December. 7 for Colts Neck 6 for U of Miami , 6 for PSV You will have a diff response in late Jan than you had in mid Nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Because it was November and your departures of - 5 still don`t get it done on the coastal plain without blocking that early. There was a trough in the means at 500 because you were in the cold phases. Now what does that pattern do in late Jan to Mid Feb with where N are at that time ? The first half of December was pretty meh too....now once you get to the end of the month and especially February, you're talking, but that was what many of the LR forecasters said anyway, that this would be a backloaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 23 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Weeks away I have no clue what some people on here are seeing. Either they dont look at the models or they are trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: it remains 11 days away...how good has guidance been 11-15 days? I'd like to see this move up to day 6-8 Its moving up though. Eps has support from the geps. Gefs is in it's own world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Sure over the next 5 days when there a 4SD ridge in the east , I think I hit 70 in CNJ. But then hat ridge is pressed down into Cuba day 11 - 15. If you cut any storm in even the best pattern we can go to 50. But the EPS accelerated kicking that trough off the W/C by day 10. It`s p7, the trough doesn`t come all the way east. But here is the EPS storm track post d 10 I think he means that if the pattern was really that good that storms wouldn't be cutting or hugging. Cutting/hugging is the effect, not the cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yea, I was confused as to why it was being called a good pattern. It’s strong -PNA/RNA, +AO, +NAO, neutral EPO PNA goes + And there`s height heights over HB. I didn`t say it was " a good pattern " I said your SE ridge and torch are gone. And in Jan you snow with N 2m`s with - 850`s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: let's see if we get a trough on the east coast right after that, that would be good for winter weather around here. Heart of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, LibertyBell said: I think he means that if the pattern was really that good that storms wouldn't be cutting or hugging. That`s neither cutting or hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: and a strong PV to boot. Not exactly the stuff of big winters around here...Great pattern for the Rocky Mt Ski resorts Going to need a monster -EPO to overcome the other garbage You really think this pattern is going to last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, PB-99 said: That`s neither cutting or hugging. The ridge is getting squashed by hour 234 on the eps which has moved up in time from recent runs. It's great news. People are probably weary because of the pattern are in right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: You really think this pattern is going to last? No, I dont think anyone does. But they just disagree on the timing. A lot of us think that February will be much better for winter weather than January is and will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: The better pattern starts around MLK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, PB-99 said: PNA goes + And there`s height heights over HB. I didn`t say it was " a good pattern " I said your SE ridge and torch are gone. And in Jan you snow with N 2m`s with - 850`s Paul, is there a way to come up with a list of analogs of other Januarys that went into a similar pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Cutter Pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I have no clue what some people on here are seeing. Either they dont look at the models or they are trolling. you have to look at more than the models. Surely you know that by now. They're a tool. Part of a package. Just b/c a day 10 prog says x or y, that's certainly not always the end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: Makes sense in p4 - p5. Prob doesn`t do that as you head away form p6 towards p7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: you have to look at more than the models. Surely you know that by now. They're a tool. Part of a package. Just b/c a day 10 prog says x or y, that's certainly not always the end result. Like what ? Magic 8 ball ? PM me tonight`s powerball #`s pls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, PB-99 said: Like what ? Magic 8 ball ? PM me tonight`s powerball #`s pls hey if we just went by the models we would not need meterologists to intepret them....hey you do remember last year right-that magic pattern was 10-12 days out the whole season...how did that work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: hey if we just went by the models we would not need meterologists to intepret them....hey you do remember last year right-that magic pattern was 10-12 days out the whole season...how did that work out? Hey don`t look at me I was never a fan of the Strat warm idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I'll give an example-several days ago models had an ice storm for Cleveland this weekend. Now they have thunderstorms and record warmth this weekend. SE ridge way under modeled so everything will end up further N and W and thus warmer for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 The day 10 EPS still shows a strong -PNA pattern. That’s what people are concerned about. So anything too amped could easily cut. The difference between the old and new runs at that time is the more +EPO. New run Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I'll give an example-several days ago models had an ice storm for Cleveland this weekend. Now they have thunderstorms and record warmth this weekend. Brian, with all due respect we have been talking about a 3 plus week warm up away since before Christmas and hollowed out a 5 day break with more warmth on the backend. No one where I post missed this period from late Dec onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: The day 10 EPS still shows a strong -PNA pattern. That’s what people are concerned about. So anything too amped could easily cut. The difference between the old and new runs at that time is the weaker -EPO than a few days ago. New run Old run Run to Run Day 10 adjustment in the means / More trough in the east, more ridge out west. The PNA goes pos later in the period. The trough splits and a piece heads east. Let`s not start moving the goal posts and start talking about the PNA in here, the last few days we have been talking about the squashing of the SE ridge after day 12. Today it`s after day 10. ( this fix began 2 days ago on the EPS ) If you want to have another convo about the PNA we can have one, that takes longer to develop. But the SE ridge that you and I have been talking about over the last couple of days is doing exactly what I said it would do, feel the effects of the trough being ejected off the WC in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Trenton NJ for the WIN!!!! war-mis-ta uh huh https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GEFS/2020010712/MA/GEFSMA_prec_snens_384.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Yes everyone the PNA stays - through day 13/14. No one is denying that, but the focus has been on the SE ridge. The EPS ejects a piece of the TPV cutting across the CONUS in the 10 -15. The forcing heading away from p6 may allow that trough that split in the LR and head into the lakes. All you need is a pos tilted trough to run under all the HP the EPS is seeing in Canada day 11 - 15 and winter returns ( or appears for the 1st time for some ) . If LP can be sat on and as long as the wave remains pos tilted the reduction of a SE ridge may allow you to be on the right side of the barroclinic zone. My pushback is with the winters over idea as well, nothing until mid Feb crowd. That is not what the EPS and GPS are telling you in the 10 - 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.