PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Euro is really cold. I’m currently expecting 4-7 inches of snow with some freezing rain. Initial call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 More of a Westerly flow on the European then Previous runs, wind could be a little problematic along the shoreline in terms of being"skipped over"... Better than nothing I suppose lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 NAM is a big hit for my area. Drastically reduced sleet potential and increased snow. Starting to track this hard. WSW issued for the area up to .5 inches ice accumalation with up to 6 inches of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 18z too vs 12z bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 NAMMED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 15 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: NAMMED! Do the precip loop and try and see where all that snow is coming from. It’s entirely sleet. Sorry dude. NAMMED to be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 If you’re in an upslope area, you could see significant accumulation after that initial surge. But I’d be real cautious about getting my hopes up on these maps. The temp profiles are sh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 11 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I don’t think you know where I am located. I don’t sleet except for a few hours on the backend of the first surge. I checked the sounding and everything and can tell you that the 18z NAM is 90% snow for my area. In Plattsburgh northern adirondacks. Btw u posted the warmest frame there is hr45. That is the only few hours I sleet. I am below freezing entirely at all levels afterwards. Quick crash in temps from back door cold front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 29 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: If you’re in an upslope area, you could see significant accumulation after that initial surge. But I’d be real cautious about getting my hopes up on these maps. The temp profiles are sh.. Lol u are wrong man. The intial surge is where I money on this run. Only hour I sleet is around 45, the one u posted. Read my posts above. I am expecting 4-7 inches of snow/sleet with a with a possibility of around .10-.25 inches of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 16 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Lol u are wrong man. The intial surge is where I money on this run. Only hour I sleet is around 45, the one u posted. Read my posts above. I am expecting 4-7 inches of snow with a with a possibility of around .10-.25 inches of ice Hey, I hope you get clobbered by snow. But, take it from us farther south who have dealt with numerous mixing events this year. There isn't lots of cold air to work with. Mixing has been an issue with all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 This is why I look at only pivotal kuchera lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 I'd like to see a couple/few inches by Wednesday am lol But it's still the LR NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This is why I look at only pivotal kuchera lol 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This is why I look at only pivotal kuchera lol Verbatim even on pivotal I get 8 inches. Just glad we have the chance for frozen regardless of snow ice or sleet. Deff not rain, that’s 100% certain with the surface never going above 30! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hey, I hope you get clobbered by snow. But, take it from us farther south who have dealt with numerous mixing events this year. There isn't lots of cold air to work with. Mixing has been an issue with all of them. I understand. I definitely won’t get rain which is a good thing. It’s either snow or ice and sleet at this point with exact details still to be pinpointed. Thanks for the brutal honesty. I probably shouldn’t get my hopes up to much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 Such a good placement for good LES NE of the lakes. A few degrees cooler and we would have lake snow warnings for most of WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Verbatim even on pivotal I get 8 inches. Just glad we have the chance for frozen regardless of snow ice or sleet. Deff not rain, that’s 100% certain with the surface never going above 30! You won't get 8", most of that is sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 I will do ObS and let everyone know what I end up getting. Thank you all for being honest. Hoping for a few ticks colder in the next few runs and in the mesos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 No doubt Pauly, just pointing out how bad TT is lol They even count rain as snow.. For example TT has 6" here while pivotal has 2"-3" but all I see is rain/snow lol Not zr/ip.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 LR looks MUCH better and is gathering consensus! A couple LES events in there as well. I'm worried about the SE ridge flexing way out there towards mid Jan, but that's way too far out anyways. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 Dates with possible snow. In between those time frames we look to be above average temps. Dec 31-Jan 1st Jan 5th-Jan 9th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 We're on 88 pages, need to make a new thread soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Yeah, LR did a little flip-a-rue. Lol. This time of year we’re bound to get something come down the pike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Pauly, this is hr 39, right in the middle of the push. You need -5 to be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Pauly, this is hr 39, right in the middle of the push. You need -5 to be all snow Thank you. I appreciate the feedback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Watch for my area. they seem to be hinting at more ice than i see.(WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 6 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. MEANWHILE, ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY, PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. * WHERE...NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MOST OF CENTRAL, EASTERN, AND SOUTHERN VERMONT, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. * WHEN...FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE ICE ACCUMULATION APPROACHES 0.50 INCH. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS....PLEASE NOTE PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WHILE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA BEING REACH IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION. &&) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 The one thing we have going for us is timing, trough/front moves through just after dark on Tuesday.. Temps hang in the Mid-upper 20s through the night, which isn't that marginal when it comes to snow accumulation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 30 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: I understand. I definitely won’t get rain which is a good thing. It’s either snow or ice and sleet at this point with exact details still to be pinpointed. Thanks for the brutal honesty. I probably shouldn’t get my hopes up to much Sure. That's a good way to go. I let the model runs get me all excited, just to get burned. I look forward to seeing your obs.! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 The system between the 5th-7th that has "potential" for some LES was the same system the gfs was bombing out into the 930's lol But u can obviously see no chance at phase here, as of now.. 978 mb pretty impressive for a northern stream disturbance though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 When pattern goes other way it's going to go buck wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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