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11 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

namconus_T700_us_40.png

I don’t think you know where I am located. I don’t sleet except for a few hours on the backend of the first surge. I checked the sounding and everything and can tell you that the 18z NAM is 90% snow for my area. In Plattsburgh northern adirondacks. Btw u posted the warmest frame there is hr45. That is the only few hours I sleet. I am below freezing entirely at all levels afterwards. Quick crash in temps from back door cold front.

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29 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

If you’re in an upslope area, you could see significant accumulation after that initial surge. But I’d be real cautious about getting my hopes up on these maps. The temp profiles are sh..

Lol u are wrong man. The intial surge is where I money on this run. Only hour I sleet is around 45, the one u posted. Read my posts above. I am expecting 4-7 inches of snow/sleet with a with a possibility of around .10-.25 inches of ice. 

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16 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Lol u are wrong man. The intial surge is where I money on this run. Only hour I sleet is around 45, the one u posted. Read my posts above. I am expecting 4-7 inches of snow with a with a possibility of around .10-.25 inches of ice

Hey, I hope you get clobbered by snow. But, take it from us farther south who have dealt with numerous mixing events this year. There isn't lots of cold air to work with. Mixing has been an issue with all of them.

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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

This is why I look at only pivotal kuchera lol

5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

This is why I look at only pivotal kuchera lol

snku_acc.us_ne (100).png

 

Verbatim even on pivotal I get 8 inches. Just glad we have the chance for frozen regardless of snow ice or sleet. Deff not rain, that’s 100% certain with the surface never going above 30!

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15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Hey, I hope you get clobbered by snow. But, take it from us farther south who have dealt with numerous mixing events this year. There isn't lots of cold air to work with. Mixing has been an issue with all of them.

I understand. I definitely won’t get rain which is a good thing. It’s either snow or ice and sleet at this point with exact details still to be pinpointed.  Thanks for the brutal honesty. I probably shouldn’t get my hopes up to much

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Watch for my area. they seem to be hinting at more ice than i see.(WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 6 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. MEANWHILE, ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY, PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. * WHERE...NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MOST OF CENTRAL, EASTERN, AND SOUTHERN VERMONT, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. * WHEN...FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE ICE ACCUMULATION APPROACHES 0.50 INCH. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS....PLEASE NOTE PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WHILE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA BEING REACH IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION. &&)

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30 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

I understand. I definitely won’t get rain which is a good thing. It’s either snow or ice and sleet at this point with exact details still to be pinpointed.  Thanks for the brutal honesty. I probably shouldn’t get my hopes up to much

Sure. That's a good way to go. I let the model runs get me all excited, just to get burned. I look forward to seeing your obs.!

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