tim123 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Develop between niagara fall and Toronto and comes ashore nw monroe county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Good lord, look at these delta T's over the upper lakes...... 30c!!! (66 degrees F between the lake and 850, its hard to imagine). Looks like a decent amount of low level moisture too. As many have mentioned, the lakes will be angry tomorrow, haha. I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Super heavy snow right now, WOW, this is truly a magical sight to behold, quarter size dendrites that are accumulating at a rapid pace. Now its beginning to get a bit more squally as the winds pick up a bit!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Here is a good shot of one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 One rolled through years ago with lightning and thunder in roc. Only lasted hour and half but got 5 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 I had one in Fulton, 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 3"/hr right now in the heart of this first band td hats associated with the Meso Low! I was not expecting this, and this is the beauty of living around the lakes cause anything can happen at any time and its usually by surprise!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Does anyone know if any sr models had this coming through this evening cause I didn't see it anywhere. The HRRR doesn't have its unless I missed it.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Yup. Think there will be surprises tomorrow. Lots of energy has been stored in lakes. For hows snowy it's been most has been synoptic. Not a lot of evaporational cooling of lakes from lake effect. Lots of potential energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Lake erie starting lo light up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Yes the models showed it especially the rgem and it was mentioned by the NWS.. Calling for a quick 2"-3" . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Central Oswego County is getting a nice pounding as well and you should be in it real soon Wolf and I think you make out the best with the longest duration of actual snowfall!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 I knew you'd know, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 You're gonna get it good I think!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Does anyone know if any sr models had this coming through this evening cause I didn't see it anywhere. The HRRR doesn't have its unless I missed it. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Seems unlikely. A meso low is a pretty complex and seemingly random alignment of many small environmental variables combined with adequate lake induced stability. In fact this one is unusual in that they usually occur under much colder conditions. I wouldnt have thought they were possible right now as your delta T's are just barely cold enough for pure lake effect as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yes the models showed it especially the rgem and it was mentioned by the NWS.. Calling for a quick 2"-3" . They showed lake effect, but did they show a meso low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 I'd say we're going to end up with 4" and by the time all the additional squalls move through it should be an additional 1", so 5" in a couple hrs ain't to shabby!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Seems unlikely. A meso low is a pretty complex and seemingly random alignment of many small environmental variables combined with adequate lake induced stability. In fact this one is unusual in that they usually occur under much colder conditions. I wouldnt have thought they were possible right now as your delta T's are just barely cold enough for pure lake effect as it is. I was thinking the same exact thing so just imagine when theres -22C flowing over both Lakes Erie and Ontario, fuggetaboutitSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 We having a brief respite then we should be back in it for at least another 1hr or so. It also looks to be consolidating a bit more as it comes ashore completely! What an awesome surpriseSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Pouring snow here right now. Looks like the heaviest will be just north of here (Hastings area) but I’m glad to be in part of the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 I seriously doubt any models predicted this but if any one of them did, Wolfie will find it, lol, but I doubt they did. Mentioning LE and mentioning a meso low are entirely 2 different things, but you know this and if the NWS mentioned a Meso Low affecting areas to the ESE of Lake Ontario, I'd love to see it.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Pouring snow here right now. Looks like the heaviest will be just north of here (Hastings area) but I’m glad to be in part of the action.It's been snowing like it is now over you, over me for 2 hrs at that rate! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: They showed lake effect, but did they show a meso low? It tried. Lol That doesn't look like regular lake effect with that bend.. But it was the best model I've seen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 I went for a Jeb Walk when the band went through here. Didn't last terribly long, but it was fantastic! Quarter-sized to half-dollar sized flakes coming straight down. Picked up a little under an inch in 25 minutes. Looks like freak is getting the brunt of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Taking its sweet time coming onshore at my latitude lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 We have another squall coming through now with wicked winds accompanying it, unlike the band I was in where it was just pouring like it is now over you CNYSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 It tried. Lol That doesn't look like regular lake effect with that bend.. But it was the best model I've seen..Definitely works, lol, and I knew you'd find it, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Taking its sweet time coming onshore at my latitude lolYour gonna get pounded on unless I think your location is much further South than it really is. I thought you were 15 miles to the NE of Pulaski right?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 So wait, this might actually miss you to your South, oh damn, I thought you were further South, my bad!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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