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meatwad

Pittsburgh PA Area Rest of fall and Winter 2019-2020 thread

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Not sure about Jonesboro Arkansas, but we’re possibly becoming Charleston WV.  
Just looking at trends I don’t see winter improving. 

Basically the odds of becoming Charleston WV are much better than say I-80. Synoptically speaking.  
Despite Charleston being much further away than I-80. 
 

Sorry about possibly derailing any discussion on tonight’s flurries and wind event. 
 


 

 

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39 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Snow globe snow falling now. :snowwindow:

Yeah, it's a perfect winter day out there. Nothing beats snow falling with temps in the 20s. To top that I've gotten more snow on the ground today than from yesterday's "storm". Just enough to take the kids and out and pull them around on the sled and rough house with the dog. 

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Euro has interesting outcome for the next storm. A cutoff low just sliding underneath us and even heading south east. Results in this

71mIe9j.png

I bet the ensembles will have some good hits. 

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1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro has interesting outcome for the next storm. A cutoff low just sliding underneath us and even heading south east. Results in this

71mIe9j.png

I bet the ensembles will have some good hits. 

Lol

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16 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro has interesting outcome for the next storm. A cutoff low just sliding underneath us and even heading south east. Results in this

I bet the ensembles will have some good hits. 

I just cycled through 00z / 06z runs and there is definitely support for something similar to this showing up on GFS / GEM / Euro with some support from ENS too.

Verbatim nothing looks like a clean hit for us but small improvements over previous runs. Guess I'll be tuning back in at 12z to see if the look continues to show up.

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Warm tongue showing up on the ensembles=death for us. Once it shows up it never goes away. That was the 6z ensembles so let's see what the 12z does today. 

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12z looks awful for us. I have zero expectations for this threat. The evolution just looks too much like a miss for us. 

ApQyrIv.jpg

Sums up our area quite well. 

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Sure seems like its right for the area, but something seems strange with the PType and surfaces temps of this run of the GFS. Plenty of vort, a closed off low H5, and no warm air in the upper or mid levels of the atmosphere. Seems odd that the surface would respond like it is depicted on this map.  Maybe im wrong, just seems off.

Anyway, still something to look at and hope for. At least we have a storm that is taking a pretty good path for us right now. Just need to the timing to be correct

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It really is too bad we don't have a better airmass leading into this weekend's system as we would probably looking at prolonged light to moderate event. Models seem to be picking up on another southern stream event for next weekend, although cold rain as depicted on 12z Gfs. It would be frustrating for 2 close misses like that with late January temps but it is what it is I guess. 

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It's a very marginal setup with high bust potential. Reminds me more of a early March storm than mid January where being off by a degree or 2 makes the difference between 1 inch or 6 inches. My thought is we need the that energy in Eastern Ohio to die out quicker and merge with the main low pressure sooner. That would help with temperatures and may help the main low wrap up a little faster. Both of those things would help us get the most of this.

Who knows how close the GFS to being correct though.

img.png.d1f4c5dce716a4d0c69147d778980f0d.png

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The GFS has been abysmal this winter.  I simply don't trust it in this pattern regime.

It is January, so the lack of a pronounced antecedent cold should be easier to overcome then if it were March, but we know our local climate.  Plenty of caution ahead.

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Good to have some.guidance show some possibility, but I don't like that the air mass is so marginal. That primary has to die somewhat fast or its gonna be more wet than white. 

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3 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

12z looks awful for us. I have zero expectations for this threat. The evolution just looks too much like a miss for us. 

ApQyrIv.jpg

Sums up our area quite well. 

But even with a low that far away to the east, how would it be warm enough for rain?  I mean come on.  How do we win?

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3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

But even with a low that far away to the east, how would it be warm enough for rain?  I mean come on.  How do we win?

Someone said it above - reminds me of a March storm without a cold airmass and P types are influenced by Dynamic cooling and rates 

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Just now, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

This is for Sunday into Monday correct? So we’re less than 6 days out.....better than nothing to track I guess.

Saturday-Sunday.

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We've seen the Euro over-amplify systems in the mid-range (say between Days 4-7).  We're at the back end of that window right now, still arguably in the long-range.  Maybe that's not an issue here.  I realize the GFS is an amped-up storm, as well, but the temperatures at the mid-levels and above are warm, hence the output.  If we're getting southerly flow it isn't going to stay all frozen, at least not for us.

Also working against us: bullseye at this timeframe is always bad, but even regardless of that, I don't think I've ever seen a "western PA special" like how it is depicted on the maps.  That result seems VERY low probability to me.  I'd be happy to be wrong if anyone can present evidence of storms that have evolved similarly.

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1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Just when I thought I was out..the Euro pulled me back in. 
I would like that dying low more south, just to be safe. 

I agree, 18z GFS shows what happens if it holds on a bit to long. We get just enough warm air to rain and the secondary doesn't get going in time. 

Heh, just for fun loop through the OP 18z GFS, epic run for New York state, we get a nice hit too to start off Feb. Maybe we get lucky and the less than great pattern forces storms to take a decent track instead of favoring the east coast. 

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1 hour ago, jwilson said:

We've seen the Euro over-amplify systems in the mid-range (say between Days 4-7).  We're at the back end of that window right now, still arguably in the long-range.  Maybe that's not an issue here.  I realize the GFS is an amped-up storm, as well, but the temperatures at the mid-levels and above are warm, hence the output.  If we're getting southerly flow it isn't going to stay all frozen, at least not for us.

Also working against us: bullseye at this timeframe is always bad, but even regardless of that, I don't think I've ever seen a "western PA special" like how it is depicted on the maps.  That result seems VERY low probability to me.  I'd be happy to be wrong if anyone can present evidence of storms that have evolved similarly.

Only one of my favorite storms. Jan 94, the rates in that storm were apparently pretty insane. I'll take a 5 hour thump of 1-3 inch per hour over a long duration storm with maybe an inch per hour rates. 

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I not so lovingly refer to the Euro as the "Debbie Downer" model. I'm sure she'll come to her senses in the next run or two... hahaha. Also, as someone less knowledgeable than many of you, is the GFS Hi-Res a new product/different product from the regular GFS? I just noticed it on Pivotalweather and started tinkering around with it. 

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