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Carvers Gap

Fall 2019 Observations

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This is a GREAT place for those not comfortable yet(on the pattern discussion forum) to place their observations.  We really need some more folks from the western areas of our sub-forum to place observations here.  We actually use those more than you know. 

Today has been HOT in the Tri-Cities with the third straight record high falling as we speak.  Heat index is 96 out there.  Feels like a horribly hot summer day.  Just brutal.  Another year and another hot Fall...I really don't like those.  We do have some great discussion in the Fall Pattern Discussion and ENSO threads about when this heat may FINALLY break.   Cause really for folks that cool weather, this sucks.   LOL.

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We have officially recorded three straight record highs.  If we hit 94 today, we tie a fourth.   Can't be many times that we have hit four straight at TRI...15 straight days without any recorded rainfall at TRI though there were some sprinkles in the area yesterday.

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One more degree to go and we hit an extraordinary fourth record high in a row.  Meanwhile, the areas above 7,000' feet out West saw their first snow of the season...*sigh*.

1954 has nine record highs for September for TRI including the all-time high for the month, and they also had four days in a row of record heat at least.  Nine...

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Trough west. Severe Midwest. Death SER here. Chatty is working on another record high too.

Ferris Bueller Principal: Nine Days!

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

One more degree to go and we hit an extraordinary fourth record high in a row.  Meanwhile, the areas above 7,000' feet out West saw their first snow of the season...*sigh*.

1954 has nine record highs for September for TRI including the all-time high for the month, and they also had four days in a row of record heat at least.  Nine...

Agree! New members get your feet wet here and in Banter.

Our regional sub-forum is especially solid in two ways. Yes, we take the science seriously, but not ourselves, this post haha. At the same time we treat new members with the same respect and inclusion given to long-time members. No such thing as a bad forecast if it includes reasoning (even just a little). 

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Indeed we have set a fourth record high in a row at TRI.  As of the 2:53PM reporting cycle, 95F was recorded.  It breaks the old record of 94F.  As a Tennessee football fan, it is never wise to ask, "It can't get any worse than this, right?"  But, come-on...enough already with the heat!  LOL.  I just wonder how many records Sept 1954 held originally...have to think a few have been broken?  Nine still standing...impressive.  Well, in Sept 2019 we now hold four so far. I will have to check next week as there is one more push early in the week of hot temps.

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10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

1954  was warm,the most days around here in a year with highs 90+ with 96 that year.With us hitting 90+ today we are presently at 87

That is crazy hot!  I went back and looked at those analogs after you posted this.   Looks like a pretty big drought in the south/southern Plains centered around eastern TX, Oklahoma, and the GC states if I am remembering the map correctly.  We have managed to pull this year's heat off with above normal rainfall.  That pattern flipped to a cold November during 1954.  Temps were -4F to -6F BN over E TN for November after that heat dissipated.  I will freeze my tail off if that happens.  

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19 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

That is crazy hot!  I went back and looked at those analogs after you posted this.   Looks like a pretty big drought in the south/southern Plains centered around eastern TX, Oklahoma, and the GC states if I am remembering the map correctly.  We have managed to pull this year's heat off with above normal rainfall.  That pattern flipped to a cold November during 1954.  Temps were -4F to -6F BN over E TN for November after that heat dissipated.  I will freeze my tail off if that happens.  

We got "1 of snow on Nov 2,1954.which is rare for us,usually this time of year it's either cold rain or thunderstorms but temps dropped to 21 that night.Spring of 1954 was the start of a long lived LaNina that went strong into 1955 towards the end of that year.During Nov into Dec the EPO looked to avg -0.50,this must have been good enough for even Tallahassee,Fl.had 11 days during Dec of 1954 that made it below freezing,that's even just as weird to me.But having a warm spell like in a LaNina year into summer of 1954 doesn't seem much out of place,sorta speaking.

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Sitting at 19 days straight without measurable precip IMBY.  The airport received some late last week...not here.  With all of this record heat and not precip...we are back to some rough looking lawns.  

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What was your final high for the day?
100 officially. First 100 here in 4 years (which is amazing in itself) - but on September 16th, no less.

I'd put exclamation points on all that but I'm not happy about any of this weather. They are cancelling fall sports events for the youth here due to heat.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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It was hot here today as well,hit 99 and broke this record

 

Middle Tennessee Weather History

 

On September 16, 1927...
Very summer-like weather is felt across the mid state. The afternoon temperature hits 98 degrees at Nashville.

 

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1 hour ago, mempho said:

100 officially. First 100 here in 4 years (which is amazing in itself) - but on September 16th, no less.

I'd put exclamation points on all that but I'm not happy about any of this weather. They are cancelling fall sports events for the youth here due to heat.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

You made me go look at ours,we haven't hit 100 in 7 years,1952 in Clarksville.36-days of 100+,must of been some death ridge over them,the ENSO  was basically neutral through out the spring through the rest of the year

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00431672.1952.9932221?journalCode=vwws20

100records.png

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At least a little relief in regards to temps for eastern areas (hopefully, though MRX in the afternoon disco basically said still above normal) with backdoor cool front

Struggling convection seen from Lone Mountain in Morgan county looking south towards the Great Valley, as the front wriggled through:

 

 

 

CBBF447C-9370-40E9-8F46-01943FFA7AF6.JPG

Some drier air was working in toward the top of the mountain, but humidity still laying in the valley as I descended. 

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Have a few things that I wanted to share with this photo....First, you can see just how dry MBY is.  Normally, it is a full and a lush green.  Since it is south facing, it can get admittedly a but scruffy at this time of year.  But this is well past being scruffy and about as bad as it gets.  Second, you can see the leaves changing.  Third, @Stovepipe, you can see the mustard greens, lettuce and cover crops chugging away.  We water those which is why they are green.  Lastly, it is thankfully cloudy!  If we do indeed go a couple of more weeks with very little rain, we have a "before" pic now.

680440823_IMG_3402(1).thumb.jpg.34195235f6ebb7c3b6a682814325a155.jpg

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A fifth record high for September in now in the books at TRI hit a whopping 92 on September 16th.  For some of you further south that might not sound too bad...up here that is pretty much as out of bounds as one get as evidenced by the record.  Looks like there may be more chances for records to fall next weekend and early into the next week.  Oddly, none of the 1954 record highs have fallen....just picking low hanging fruit right now by setting records on the other days.  LOL....yeah, even the low hanging fruit is still hot!

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Kind of an interesting "opportunity."  If TRI can hit the record high today of 90, next weekend's temps are well within reach on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday as those record high temps(if I am remember correctly) are in the 89-90 range....that means five more record high temps could fall.   That would leave 2019 will a full 1/3(ten of the thirty record high temps in one calendar year) of TRI's record high temps!  I kinda think that might be tough as a single, cloudy day could derail that...but still this is some rare air.  Something to keep an eye on...even without those other records, five is incredibly impressive.  If we hit the forecast high today and next weekend, this might be a once in 50 year heat event for the month of September.  Interestingly in 1954, there are five more record highs in October.  It is fairly amazing how closely we are mirroring that year so far.  Looks like the last blast of incredible heat will be in early October(and later this week as well)...then climo begins to push temps back fairly rapidly.  In other words, we may see more records but just not of the extreme summer heat variety.  

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9 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Kind of an interesting "opportunity."  If TRI can hit the record high today of 90, next weekend's temps are well within reach on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday as those record high temps(if I am remember correctly) are in the 89-90 range....that means five more record high temps could fall.   That would leave 2019 will a full 1/3(ten of the thirty record high temps in one calendar year) of TRI's record high temps!  I kinda think that might be tough as a single, cloudy day could derail that...but still this is some rare air.  Something to keep an eye on...even without those other records, five is incredibly impressive.  If we hit the forecast high today and next weekend, this might be a once in 50 year heat event for the month of September.  Interestingly in 1954, there are five more record highs in October.  It is fairly amazing how closely we are mirroring that year so far.  Looks like the last blast of incredible heat will be in early October(and later this week as well)...then climb begins to push temps back fairly rapidly.  In other words, we may see more records but just not of the extreme summer heat variety.  

Looks warm


ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: TRI    LAT=  36.47 LON=  -82.40 ELE=  1519

                                            12Z SEP22
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SUN 12Z 22-SEP   0.6     2.3       6              -1              10       5    
SUN 18Z 22-SEP  11.6     4.9       2              -6              10       8    
MON 00Z 23-SEP   6.4     6.1       0             -40              10      11    
MON 06Z 23-SEP   1.7     4.0       0             -44              10       9    
MON 12Z 23-SEP  -0.5     2.5       1             -44               8       7    
MON 18Z 23-SEP  11.5     4.9      -3              26               7       9    
TUE 00Z 24-SEP   6.3     5.3      -4              46               5       8    
TUE 06Z 24-SEP   2.6     1.7      -4             -13               3       7    
TUE 12Z 24-SEP  -1.6    -0.4      -2             -40               3       5    
TUE 18Z 24-SEP   7.7     0.9      -4             -38               2       6    
WED 00Z 25-SEP   3.0     2.3      -6    1038     -38   39.33       2       7    
WED 06Z 25-SEP  -2.2     1.7      -5    1058     -40   39.33       1       6    
WED 12Z 25-SEP  -4.0     2.4      -4    1071     -39   39.33       1       5    
WED 18Z 25-SEP  11.4     4.9      -7    1022     -34   39.33       2       8    
THU 00Z 26-SEP   6.4     6.8      -8              19               2       9    
THU 06Z 26-SEP   0.7     6.7      -6              26               3       8    
THU 12Z 26-SEP   1.4     5.0      -5              26               3       7    
THU 18Z 26-SEP  13.4     6.4      -6              25               5      10    
FRI 00Z 27-SEP   7.6     6.7      -5              26               7      11    
FRI 06Z 27-SEP   3.0     7.4      -3              14               8      11    
FRI 12Z 27-SEP   2.2     7.4      -1              21               8       9    
FRI 18Z 27-SEP  17.4     9.5      -3              30               9      11    
SAT 00Z 28-SEP  10.5     8.9      -2              12              10      11    
SAT 06Z 28-SEP   5.9     7.6       0               6              11      11    
SAT 12Z 28-SEP   4.0     7.1       3              31              11       9    
SAT 18Z 28-SEP  15.8     8.3       1              23              13      11    
SUN 00Z 29-SEP  10.4     8.7       1              16              13      12    
SUN 06Z 29-SEP   4.8     7.9       3               8              14      12    
SUN 12Z 29-SEP   2.8     6.9       4               1              14      10    
SUN 18Z 29-SEP  16.3     8.7       2              -2              14      13    
MON 00Z 30-SEP  10.2     9.5       0              -2              14      13    
MON 06Z 30-SEP   4.1     8.5       2             -16              14      12    
MON 12Z 30-SEP   2.2     7.2       4             -11              14      11    
MON 18Z 30-SEP  15.9     8.7       1              -8              14      13    
TUE 00Z 01-OCT  10.5    10.2      -1              -1              14      14    
TUE 06Z 01-OCT   4.2     8.8       1             -22              13      13    
TUE 12Z 01-OCT   2.8     7.1       2             -25              13      12    
TUE 18Z 01-OCT  16.2     8.7      -1             -26              14      14    
WED 00Z 02-OCT  10.2     8.9      -1             -25              14      14    
WED 06Z 02-OCT   4.7     7.2       0             -34              13      13    
WED 12Z 02-OCT   2.9     6.0       2             -31              13      12    



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Here in Knoxville WBIR has been showing records possibly falling Thursday - the end of the 7 day forecast. I only mention WBIR because I can't remember seeing so many days on the 7 day with records listed next to the highs. We'll see if my new location in southern MoCo can help me get a quick rain shower this PM. Just south/ sw of Frozen head mts, so hopefully I can get a small upslope enhancement. 

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2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here in Knoxville WBIR has been showing records possibly falling Thursday - the end of the 7 day forecast. I only mention WBIR because I can't remember seeing so many days on the 7 day with records listed next to the highs. We'll see if my new location in southern MoCo can help me get a quick rain shower this PM. Just south/ sw of Frozen head mts, so hopefully I can get a small upslope enhancement. 

I have looked only briefly this morning, but it looks like really warm temps on tap for this weekend and into next week.  I think it is vey realistic that TRI could actually break the records for this Friday through Monday(one week...not today).  Again, it is crazy how similar this is to 1954...but we have yet to break one of those records.   Might have a chance in October to break one from that year.  What is even wilder, is November of 1954 was really cold.  Don't look at winter of 54-55 though...started cool and then the pattern returned.  I think in this case, once the patterns leaves...it is gone.  It has been a remarkably consistent pattern for almost ten months.  Even though it has been warm here, the Mountain West has been BN to sometimes well BN.  

BTW, I don't think we broke the record yesterday at TRI last I think the high was 88.  I think we have about 2-3 more weeks of this...then the transitional wavelengths of the fall season will likely shake-up the pattern - I hope!

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If any of you all wanted to know what summers out West feel like(on the hottest days), the past few days are super similar.  Low humidity, cool mornings, and tolerable when cloudy.  John, glad you are getting some rain.  You all have really dodged the worst of this during this summer/fall.   I am on my 26th day straight with no rain IMBY. Send it this way.

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53 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

A nice shower as I headed from Harriman up toward Morgan County. I had almost forgotten what a cloudy day looked like, lol. Some storms towards Nashville, hopefully we can get a better shower this evening too!

Have received a couple of light showers here.  Maybe .01 or .02....slightly more than a trace.  Basically a dry frontal passage, but feels nice out there! 

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