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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2019 OBS Thread

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Just to add, the SPV continues to take a beating with stresses on both the Atl and Pac sides. With that said, the TPV showing no signs of consolidating long range and continues to show displacement and fragmented look with 1 center in Siberia, one over N Hudson Bay, and a lobe extending over N Europe. Not expecting wall to wall winter weather and threats but all of these trends are certainly beginning to put me at ease irt any dud winter coming. Guess we see if these looks hold and continue repeating.

 

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1 minute ago, hurricane1091 said:

Didn't like the setup and not surprised how it is ending up. I'm not exactly ready for snow yet either honestly.

Glenn, have you released your winter outlook yet? If not, when should we look for it? Thanks.

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Random Monday morning musings:

Another cold/chilly early/mid November morning. Historical data posted in other groups strongly correlates cold Novembers with BN temp DJF in our region (more + correlation farther N and W into PA, less S). Many records broken recently for low temps....shattered even.

Tendencies for coastal development off the SE Coast recently and on future guidance. Likely a function of AN gulf stream SSTs and the strong baroclinicity between the colder than usual air mass over the land interacting with said SSTs. Pattern also speaks for itself with trof established over the E and SE. 

SPV continues to be bullied and pushed around with the TPV splitting and not being able to align/sync with 10hPa level. Seeing PV centers near Siberia, another N Hudson Bay region, and lobe over Europe. Ridge poking N thru Chukchi Sea and into Arctic Circle keeping -AO hopes alive going forward.

Hints LR of -NAO re-emerging (continual blocky theme). Aleutian Low remains a feature. Split flow evident off West Coast with one jet into NW US/British Columbia Coast and another undercutting thru old Mexico and across into the SE US. This flat SE ridge is not a bad thing moving forward imo as the pattern reloads IF the N Atl and AO cooperate. As the PNA goes - at times this sets up a gradient flow into December with overrunning systems moving across potentially. That ridge should be a lift mechanism to push precip N. If the AO and NAO cooperate and keep the one PV center in a location to advect cold air into the Northeast, it will be a good Dec pattern coming up with SWF (southwest flow) events providing snow chances for the Northeast.

Again, just some musings on this Monday. Not seeing anything too alarming. Was seeing some SE ridge pops on LR ens but again it seems to be balanced but the goings-on over the N Pole and N Atl HL blocking. That's of course if the general ideas hold. Bottom line, I'm certainly not disliking the look moving forward. Maybe a relax/reload in 7-12 days but we can see the neg temp anomalies rebuilding across the Eastern US again after a moderation with the warmest temps into Canada. Not a CPF look (yet) BUT like seeing the neg temps reappearing.  An old sage once said, when Canada is warm in December, the lower 48 is generally chilly/cold. 

 

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Cosgrove thinks a milder than normal remainder of November after the arctic shot through mid December at least. MJO supports it but -AO is a conflicting signal for the mildness the remainder of the month should prove interesting. Most likely a normal average from mid month the next 30 days with significant short lived cold shots.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Crickets still alive for some reason here, last night for that.

 

The last handful of nights have been quiet at night, no crickets or anything, but I did hear a couple this evening. After this cold front moves through that should be that. 

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16 hours ago, RedSky said:

Crickets still alive for some reason here, last night for that.

 

I was over at my sister's house yesterday and got ladybugged to death yesterday as I was wrapping her fig. It had hit a high of 63 in this area yesterday so it was a good day to do it.

But that is all a memory as I got flakes flying here with the temp down to 35 after a high earlier this morning of 54. Looks like a heavier band is incoming.

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