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99L has been designated and is looking very good this morning  GFS brings it close but offshore the east coast and the EURO takes it to the keys. It appears this one will be in the threat zone for US impact possibilities. The tropics are awake finally.

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2 minutes ago, Solak said:

Some models want to ramp it up pretty quickly!

99L_intensity_latest.png

Based on current organization I could believe it. Bet its cherry red by the end of today. Think 20% over 5 days was way low on probabilities.

Did Barry ever look this good lol?

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14 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Based on current organization I could believe it. Bet its cherry red by the end of today. Think 20% over 5 days was way low on probabilities.

Did Barry ever look this good lol?

Barry did not, lol. 

Here’s the latest ASCAT. I think it could be something to watch long term if it does end up in the central or southern Caribbean. 

S9I9LRe.png

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As a side note my nephew started coastal Carolina the year Mathew hit. He has had to evacuate every year he has been there. He is a senior this year but ow his sister is a freshman at coastal carolina so we will see if their curse continues.

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50 minutes ago, shaggy said:

As a side note my nephew started coastal Carolina the year Mathew hit. He has had to evacuate every year he has been there. He is a senior this year but ow his sister is a freshman at coastal carolina so we will see if their curse continues.

Hmm, I think we found the cause! I'm in Charleston and the evacuation orders and makeup days at work have been pretty annoying.

 

Maybe I could counteract their effects by selling my lousy, little generator and buying something better...

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My wife was already asking where our "hurrication" is going to be this year. I said don't plan on it. Certainly has been a lot of close calls last few years and people are beginning to expect it as new normal when it is an aberration. 

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Lots of questions will be raised with overall track with TD5.

Gfs basically brings it along the forecast track but kills it. If it's as strong as hurricane center says would that lead to a more northerly solution allowing it to avoid the big islands? Does it stay as weak as the gfs says and either dies or slides further southwest because it's so weak?

Might be the first threat of the season from the deep tropics.

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Dorian

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 49.1W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

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The talk of possible RI is interesting. Would hate to be a forecaster for the islands right now. If this thing cranks up their not gonna have a ton of time. 

Stronger sooner mean north of the islands? Could have ramifications down stream for intensity and threat to land.

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We are "watching" here in SENC...    While very Bad news for P.R.,, If It crosses the Island at whatever Cat #,, It would be quite devastating too SENC & P.R. .. .. (Or any part of the Carolinas/Caribbean )..

Looks to be on Track, for a Anniversary of sorts for the Carolinas.. At least one good thing, It's doesn't have a "F" name..  ;) 

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10 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

damn.  didn’t realize shaggy was doing the tropical threads .

hope you’ll join in the hardcore thread at the other site. 

I’m not quite into hardcore. 

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I'll read over there but not say much. Honestly I'm staying away from there more this year because watching stuff from too far out gets kind of stressful after a while.

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Hwrf never gets it sub 1000mb. Models are keeping this thing super weak and right now it's looking very good. Got to be a big headache for the NHC.

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There's official forecasts, spaghetti models, and then, there's this nonsense...

(A previous tweet, since deleted, compared Dorian to the track of the 1900 Galveston Hurricane)

This one isn't much better.

 
 
START WATCHING & PLANNING NOW!!!Tropical Storm Dorian has formed with 60mph winds. Hurricane in 4 days. Following similar path as some of our worst hurricanes - Florida Straits & long run over strengthening warm Gulf water. Changes in path HIGHLY likely.

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On 8/25/2019 at 9:24 AM, Ser Pounce said:

I'll read over there but not say much. Honestly I'm staying away from there more this year because watching stuff from too far out gets kind of stressful after a while.

Yeah, lots of doom forecasting for a very compact, weak storm that has a lot going against it. People assume everything will rapidly intensify to a major hurricane after the last few years. Anything can happen but the current track, interaction with Hispaniola's mountains and dry air don't point to a catastrophic event at this time.

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Bingo, I haven't paid much attention in about 18 hours but it looked exactly like the kind of thing that would get wrecked by Hispaniola and much ado about nothing afterwords. Everything subject to change of course.

 

Maybe people are jumping on it over there because there hasn't been much to do yet this year.

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1 hour ago, scwxguy said:

Yeah, lots of doom forecasting for a very compact, weak storm that has a lot going against it. People assume everything will rapidly intensify to a major hurricane after the last few years. Anything can happen but the current track, interaction with Hispaniola's mountains and dry air don't point to a catastrophic event at this time.

Not sure if you’re talking about the main thread, but I don’t see any doom forecasting there. I try to keep it objective and well reasoned and I think  just about everyone over there has been good so far. It becomes a circus when things become a boba fide US threat.

Social media? I assume it’s probably bad but I don’t pay attention to anyone outside of my core group.

1 hour ago, Ser Pounce said:

Bingo, I haven't paid much attention in about 18 hours but it looked exactly like the kind of thing that would get wrecked by Hispaniola and much ado about nothing afterwords. Everything subject to change of course.

 

Maybe people are jumping on it over there because there hasn't been much to do yet this year.

Well if there’s tropical, I track it. If (and that’s up in the air at this point) it hits the mountains of Hispaniola, that significantly lowers the potential of a serious threat to the mainland US, but there’s high uncertainty in both the medium range track and intensity forecasting. 

Recon will be invaluable for a system like this.

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Spent the weekend with the in-laws and they were convinced a hurricane was approaching NC. I think there is doom-casting (the tweet above) and then also just pure lack of knowledge among many people who do not follow the weather like we do. If they hear about a storm and hear the mention of their state, some people don't listen or just assume it's coming. With the rash of destructive storms the last few years, this may be a side effect. Every storm that forms, people ASSUME the worst now. A cat 1 slamming into Hispanola with plenty of dry and and shear before that is not means to get me overly concerned AT THIS POINT (for SE US impact). As with any tropical system, it needs to be heeded, but anyone predicting any sort of impact at this point is simply spewing. 

On Dorian- first of all, he is looking progressively better as of this morning. On Water Vapor, the dry air remains apparent, but it seems he has established a CDO and decent outflow, something with the bursts of convection we had not seen to this point. Given his small size, we know that RI is not out of the question. However, here is what I see:

1) small storm very susceptible to intensity swings

2) Good outflow but shear is certainly not too far to the N and W and very much in the forecast path (see above concerningsize)

3) Opportunity for a brief spinup quickly followed by weakening. Very real possibility we see this thing shoot up to a hurricane but weaken markedly before making it to the islands (if this thing gets sheared apart, it will likely drift west south of the islands in the easterlies and never reach there, as we've seen before)

4) IF and I mean IF this does ramp up to a hurricane, very good chance it is a shell of itself post-land interaction. Even if hit hit as a cat 3 (VERY unlikely) due to its small size, it would likely be a depression (Meaning LF intensity doesn't matter as much as if this was a large storm with broader circulation IE more resilient to a LF or interaction) upon entry to the Atlantic Side

5) We have seen time and time again post land interaction these type of storms struggle to get re-organized. Also, though the shear in that area is light at the moment, there is a TON of time for that forecast to change.

Everything considered, this is a VERY challenging forecast due to small size, dry air, very sharp pockets of shear, degree of land interaction, and environment post-Hispanola. Certainly bears watching but I would not sound the alarm for any threat to the US east coast at this point. I think, as always, the flooding and impact to Hispanola and Puerto Rico (especially post-Maria) needs to be the main news story. Any storm of any intensity causes destruction to these areas and can cause loss of life. Much to come in the coming days.

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13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Spent the weekend with the in-laws and they were convinced a hurricane was approaching NC. I think there is doom-casting (the tweet above) and then also just pure lack of knowledge among many people who do not follow the weather like we do. If they hear about a storm and hear the mention of their state, some people don't listen or just assume it's coming. With the rash of destructive storms the last few years, this may be a side effect. Every storm that forms, people ASSUME the worst now. A cat 1 slamming into Hispanola with plenty of dry and and shear before that is not means to get me overly concerned AT THIS POINT (for SE US impact). As with any tropical system, it needs to be heeded, but anyone predicting any sort of impact at this point is simply spewing. 

On Dorian- first of all, he is looking progressively better as of this morning. On Water Vapor, the dry air remains apparent, but it seems he has established a CDO and decent outflow, something with the bursts of convection we had not seen to this point. Given his small size, we know that RI is not out of the question. However, here is what I see:

1) small storm very susceptible to intensity swings

2) Good outflow but shear is certainly not too far to the N and W and very much in the forecast path (see above concerningsize)

3) Opportunity for a brief spinup quickly followed by weakening. Very real possibility we see this thing shoot up to a hurricane but weaken markedly before making it to the islands (if this thing gets sheared apart, it will likely drift west south of the islands in the easterlies and never reach there, as we've seen before)

4) IF and I mean IF this does ramp up to a hurricane, very good chance it is a shell of itself post-land interaction. Even if hit hit as a cat 3 (VERY unlikely) due to its small size, it would likely be a depression (Meaning LF intensity doesn't matter as much as if this was a large storm with broader circulation IE more resilient to a LF or interaction) upon entry to the Atlantic Side

5) We have seen time and time again post land interaction these type of storms struggle to get re-organized. Also, though the shear in that area is light at the moment, there is a TON of time for that forecast to change.

Everything considered, this is a VERY challenging forecast due to small size, dry air, very sharp pockets of shear, degree of land interaction, and environment post-Hispanola. Certainly bears watching but I would not sound the alarm for any threat to the US east coast at this point. I think, as always, the flooding and impact to Hispanola and Puerto Rico (especially post-Maria) needs to be the main news story. Any storm of any intensity causes destruction to these areas and can cause loss of life. Much to come in the coming days.

Worse case: Irma repeat.. RI outflow blocks the dry air and shear, but splits the gap between DR and PR and enters the Altantic side as a Cat.3 or higher. EXTREMELY unlikely, bjt not out of the question

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I've seen plenty of storms with their plot over Florida and then as it approaches that curves up the coast to threaten my area. Floyd, Mathew a bunch. This time that's going to be much harder as that ridge shuts the door. East coast of Florida ala Jeanne and frances comes to mind.

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