Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,541
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Newest Member
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Joined

Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change


donsutherland1
 Share

Recommended Posts

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

Warmest start to the summer in portions of Eastern PA.


 

Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2024-07-07 76.7 0
2 1925-07-07 75.9 0
3 1966-07-07 75.8 0
4 1943-07-07 75.5 0
5 1949-07-07 75.3 0
- 1934-07-07 75.3 0
6 2010-07-07 75.1 0
7 1952-07-07 74.9 0
8 1923-07-07 74.5 0
9 2005-07-07 74.4 0
10 1957-07-07 74.3 0
11 2021-07-07 74.2 0
- 2013-07-07 74.2 0
12 2008-07-07 74.1 0
13 2020-07-07 74.0 0
- 2011-07-07 74.0 0
- 1953-07-07 74.0 0
14 1921-07-07 73.8 0
- 1919-07-07 73.8 0
15 1901-07-07 73.6 0


 

 

somewhat interesting ( also ) in that the interval is over a whole degree. When looking down this list the more typical interval gap is < a degree and usually just 1 to 3 tenths.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Charlie, no need for an apology to anyone as I only analyze the actual NWS data.

But since you say I never give you anything beyond stations....well below please find all the deep details for the NWS COOP and MADIS stations in our Chester County PA dataset. Included in the below chart - I also updated your above chart with the correct data inventory dates for all available complete years of record. Data provided below for all historical and currently available NWS COOP/MADIS stations includes station map coordinates, full years of data observations by station and elevation above sea level for each station of record.

Some interesting historical and going forward geographic data and station reporting splits.

  • There are 704 complete years of all station historical data available through December 31, 2023.
  • 368 years of total data or 52% of the years have been observed at elevations below 407 FT ASL (relative lower spots)
  • 336 years of total data or 48% of the years have been observed at elevations over 440 FT ASL (relative higher spots)
  • Pre-1990 we have 451 years of historical total station data
  • 256 or 57% of those earlier observations were taken at relative lower elevations
  • 195 or 43% of those earlier observations were taken at relatively higher elevations
  • Going forward we will have a split of 8 stations located below 407 FT ASL and 8 stations above 440 FT ASL
  • That said we only had 55 years of observations at the relatively highest levels above 600 feet prior to 1990.
  • These ongoing observations will include 5 stations (31%) between 620 ft and 685 ft / 5 stations (31%) between 407 ft and 465 ft and 6 stations (38%) reporting data between 105 ft. and 348 ft.

image.png.abf7f39c6171e0611b061d4edbe6271f.png

image.thumb.png.d1e6639a0b8082acc0bca9be7773a5ea.png

You owe NOAA an apology because you are closer to NOAA now. You are putting lipstick on a pig. Sure DEOS has a nice network. I look at it all the time to check local temps. Doesn't tell us anything about Chester County's past climate though, a poor match to the COOP stations. You seem to have a hard time recognizing that: Phoenixville, the city of Coatesville, and West Chester are warmer than your current network and the county as a whole. If I tried to represent the county by modern stations in those locations you wouldn't be happy. Oh well. Not the only thing you are have trouble recognizing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

You owe NOAA an apology because you are closer to NOAA now. You are putting lipstick on a pig. Sure DEOS has a nice network. I look at it all the time to check local temps. Doesn't tell us anything about Chester County's past climate though, a poor match to the COOP stations. You seem to have a hard time recognizing that: Phoenixville, the city of Coatesville, and West Chester are warmer than your current network and the county as a whole. If I tried to represent the county by modern stations in those locations you wouldn't be happy. Oh well. Not the only thing you are have trouble recognizing.

Close only counts in checkers....Sounds like a certain pot calling the kettle black....LOL!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Close only counts in checkers....Sounds like a certain pot calling the kettle black....LOL!!!!

Well, your not even close to getting our past climate right. Funny, for a guy who favors raw data you don't show us much. Just your network averages. There's a wealth of information in our raw coop data, that you are missing. For instance at Coatesville, when the station moved to a more rural area in 1948 the nights got cooler but the days stayed about the same. A nice example of the urban heat island effect.

Coatesville_low.png

Coatesville_high.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

somewhat interesting ( also ) in that the interval is over a whole degree. When looking down this list the more typical interval gap is < a degree and usually just 1 to 3 tenths.

First time Reading ever had 10 days reaching 95° or higher by July 9th.

 

Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2024-07-09 10 0
2 2012-07-09 8 1
- 1925-07-09 8 0
3 1901-07-09 7 0

4

1966-07-09 6 0
- 1911-07-09 6 0
5 2021-07-09 5 0
- 2010-07-09 5 0
- 1999-07-09 5 0
- 1988-07-09 5 0
- 1984-07-09 5 0
- 1921-07-09 5 0
- 1919-07-09 5 0
- 1898-07-09 5 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, chubbs said:

Well, your not even close to getting our past climate right. Funny, for a guy who favors raw data you don't show us much. Just your network averages. There's a wealth of information in our raw coop data, that you are missing. For instance at Coatesville, when the station moved to a more rural area in 1948 the nights got cooler but the days stayed about the same. A nice example of the urban heat island effect.

As you should know Charlie one station does not a trend make....So why did Phoenixville's nights chill even more than Coatesville when we compare that same time frame without a station movement there?? Maybe it was just a little chillier in the 1948 to 1960 period??

image.png.d4b0fc724dd5e3a57911ee957033ad49.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

As you should know Charlie one station does not a trend make....So why did Phoenixville's nights chill even more than Coatesville when we compare that same time frame without a station movement there?? Maybe it was just a little chillier in the 1948 to 1960 period??

image.png.d4b0fc724dd5e3a57911ee957033ad49.png

Here's the difference. Coatesville had two moves after the war and ended up in a more rural location. Coatesville temperatures dropped relative to other nearby stations clearly implicating the moves. Not sure why that's so hard for you to accept, you are always telling us important the urban heat island is.

1940s.PNG

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, chubbs said:

Here's the difference. Coatesville had two moves after the war and ended up in a more rural location. Coatesville temperatures dropped relative to other nearby stations clearly implicating the moves. Not sure why that's so hard for you to accept, you are always telling us important the urban heat island is.

1940s.PNG

You did not answer my question.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Relevant to this discussion is the way UHI works.

UHI Effect - This is the increase in temperature as a result of land use changes. It is a real phenomenon.

UHI Bias - This is the error that is introduced into spatial averages as a result of oversampling either urban or rural stations in a grid cell. This is not a real phenomenon. Instead it is an artifact of the methodology chosen.

It is is really important to understand that while the UHI Effect is always positive the UHI Bias can either be positive or negative depending on which stations are oversampled. The movement of the Coatesville station to a more rural site introduces a negative UHI Bias on spatial averages. It is worth repeating and boldening. The UHI Bias can and often is negative.

[Wickham et al. 2013] analyzed the bias UHI caused in the Berkeley Earth dataset. They concluded "We observe the opposite of an urban heating effect over the period 1950 to 2010, with a slope of -0.10 ± 0.24°C/100yr (2σ error) in the Berkeley Earth global land temperature average." This is statistically equivalent to no effect, however, if anything, it is more likely the effect biased the global average temperature trend too low. I'll point out that Berkeley Earth uses a unique methodology in which they do NOT perform any adjustments to station data and yet get essentially the same warming trend as every other global average temperature dataset. 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 7/9/2024 at 12:29 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

somewhat interesting ( also ) in that the interval is over a whole degree. When looking down this list the more typical interval gap is < a degree and usually just 1 to 3 tenths.

I'm not satisfied with the current ranking system. Is this really as hot as it can get in Reading, Pennsylvania in the current climate? I don't think so. We should be comparing summers to 19th & 20th century summers observed in locations hundreds of miles south.

So, yes, indeed, the current mean temperature of 77.1F for the summer to date is the highest on record for Reading, Pennsylvania.

image.png.c78ee56b1b7f2000fd09c6efeed27d07.png

However, it's only ninth warmest on record for Richmond, Virginia, for the period ending in 2007 [111 years]. I excluded recent years since RIC has been putting up video game numbers. There were only 4 warmer starts to summer in Richmond prior through 1980.

image.png.93b34ee188f1a102a5303ae6f69c9a26.png

It's only 22nd warmest on record for Knoxville, Tennessee, for the period ending in 2001 [131 years]. Again, I excluded recent years due to temperatures being played on easy mode in Madden type numbers.

image.png.4a79e69f5d3486f5b0bb2871048cebd5.png

It's only 26th warmest on record for Raleigh, for the period ending in 2001 [115 years]. 

image.png.e73bc902ffd9a660ca1461ba2cfc9841.png

It's only equal to or warmer than two years on record in Tallahassee, with 3 more within 1/2 of a degree.

image.png.3cde845aedb362d09888d51fa741c879.png

And it's second coldest on record for Orlando, nearly a degree warmer than the bone-chilling Orlandonian summer of 1930.

image.png.c3e87440efeab27d3e6d663ecfea9420.png

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I'm not satisfied with the current ranking system. Is this really as hot as it can get in Reading, Pennsylvania in the current climate? I don't think so. We should be comparing summers to 19th & 20th century summers observed in locations hundreds of miles south.

So, yes, indeed, the current mean temperature of 77.1F for the summer to date is the highest on record for Reading, Pennsylvania.

image.png.c78ee56b1b7f2000fd09c6efeed27d07.png

However, it's only ninth warmest on record for Richmond, Virginia, for the period ending in 2007 [111 years]. I excluded recent years since RIC has been putting up video game numbers. There were only 4 warmer starts to summer in Richmond prior through 1980.

image.png.93b34ee188f1a102a5303ae6f69c9a26.png

It's only 22nd warmest on record for Knoxville, Tennessee, for the period ending in 2001 [131 years]. Again, I excluded recent years due to temperatures being played on easy mode in Madden type numbers.

image.png.4a79e69f5d3486f5b0bb2871048cebd5.png

It's only 26th warmest on record for Raleigh, for the period ending in 2001 [115 years]. 

image.png.e73bc902ffd9a660ca1461ba2cfc9841.png

It's only equal to or warmer than two years on record in Tallahassee, with 3 more within 1/2 of a degree.

image.png.3cde845aedb362d09888d51fa741c879.png

And it's second coldest on record for Orlando, nearly a degree warmer than 1930.

image.png.c3e87440efeab27d3e6d663ecfea9420.png

 

 

Reading's thermometer has been an issue for while....see latest gladstone - red x is not good

image.thumb.png.40f76d703375c4b6eb8fec874cdfa7a4.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

You did not answer my question.....

Not sure your question is relevant. Eyeballing the temperature chart Coatesville and nearby stations there wasn't any cooling in the 1940s that explains the drop at Coatesville, and the drop is mainly due to a change in low temperature.  If you isolate the East Main street site by only looking at 1930-45, and, only look at the ten years after the move occurred. The night-time cooling effect is even larger. The results bounce around for other year selections but are always in the same direction.

Coatesville_low.thumb.png.3331afe4fd188760f0320706196fc446.png

I have also added google earth views of the two sites using location info from NCDC. The sites are very different.

Coatesville 1930-1945

Coatesville1930_46.png.eeb14b8b417a9317b1dc574848a49859.png

Coatesville 1948-82

Coatesville48_82.png.6f706809669145e040334aa0dcd3e64d.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, chubbs said:

Not sure your question is relevant. Eyeballing the temperature chart Coatesville and nearby stations there wasn't any cooling in the 1940s that explains the drop at Coatesville, and the drop is mainly due to a change in low temperature.  If you isolate the East Main street site by only looking at 1930-45, and, only look at the ten years after the move occurred. The night-time cooling effect is even larger. The results bounce around for other year selections but are always in the same direction.

I have also added google earth views of the two sites using location info from NCDC. The sites are very different.

Coatesville 1930-1945

Coatesville 1948-82

 

Below are all 5 sites used and their dates. Overall siting looks pretty consistent over a very short distance. It looks like the "warmest" relative observing site very well might have been the one near the steel mill plant from 1917 to 1930. Overall all of this Coatesville data observation moves clearly did not have much of an impressive material impact on these stations and more importantly on the overall averages for Chester County overall.

 

 

2024-07-10_17-09-00.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Below are all 5 sites used and their dates. Overall siting looks pretty consistent over a very short distance. It looks like the "warmest" relative observing site very well might have been the one near the steel mill plant from 1917 to 1930. Overall all of this Coatesville data observation moves clearly did not have much of an impressive material impact on these stations and more importantly on the overall averages for Chester County overall.

 

 

2024-07-10_17-09-00.jpg

Thanks for the map. The rest of the response is short on evidence. Lets get into it.

First a couple of comments on the map. NCDC shows 6 sites, while you show 5. Perhaps that is why you don't show any site for 1947. Also several of your city locations don't match the street addresses listed by NCDC and posted above. Not sure that the details are that important. The last site from 1948-82 on Doe Run road is clearly more rural than the other sites.

Overall siting looks pretty consistent over a very short distance”

No need to guess. Google earth shows the sites are different. We can see the impact of the moves in the observed temperatures. The timing of the moves after the war coincides with temperature changes.

It looks like the “warmest” relative observing site very well might have been the one near the steel mill plant from 1917 to 1930” 

Again no need to guess. The observations at Coatesville and nearby sites can provide a ranking. . I haven't taken a close look at it yet, except to see that the rural site is noticeably cooler. I've been telling you for years that Coatesville cooled relative to other sites after the war.

Overall all of this Coatesville data observation moves clearly did not have much of an impressive impact on these stations and more importantly on the overall averages for Chester County overall”

A meaningless word salad. Its clear that the moves after the war had an impact on measured temperature that would also change your network average. Again you don't have to guess, just compare 1945 and 1948. More importantly the moves within and outside the city of Coatesville reinforce the evidence that has been piling up for weeks. You aren't doing a very good job of estimating Chester County's temperature change through the years. Meanwhile NOAA's bias adjustments are supported by hard evidence of changes at the COOP stations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Per NCDC, West Chester also had several station moves. The map and station list below are screenshots from the NCDC site. Unfortunately there are no street addresses and the location information is only approximate. The West Chester station moved within the Borough of West Chester and nearby suburbs. Like Coatesville the last station appears to be the least rural (#1,#5) in a residential neighborhood just outside of town. 

WestChester_sitemap.png

WestChesterLocations.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And there is more. Per NCDC, West Chester also changed the time of observation. At 8AM between 1952 and 1989, at 6PM between 1989 and 1992, and at midnight when a digital system was installed in 1998.

WestChesterTO.png.5f378ef08c01ee09d2072a60ec487e87.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, TimB said:

@ChescoWxcan you explain why your weather station completely defies diurnal temperature trends and consistently stalls or drops a couple degrees between noon and 1pm, especially on days when getting to 90 is a threat?3B7B15DD-AAEF-4284-BE9C-073FDAAE88AB.jpeg.31cd6e2eccc1bd952ca14e6e8cd80bd7.jpeg05B5AC61-9C78-44EE-A295-B0247CEC7C78.jpeg.93b78cc8c5825c10d624a36048c81596.jpegC3DEABAC-55DC-4E36-9463-426EE6F2131B.jpeg.f25d7319028b2bff48c94178b7f2acbc.jpeg8C2C8B07-4908-4257-BC8E-D713B80ECC2F.jpeg.2f62b351e67d3c35ce5474a4d6389587.jpegE5FF510A-978F-4BE3-9308-DBC3E6D2D660.jpeg.4c9b8b055d2c575a512ed480714e9a4c.jpeg49D1305B-BB6B-4637-ABC5-D5BFEBA326EF.jpeg.2efefbedeac337b8ab8735e9fc1e4aa6.jpegD038A81F-F1B4-4F31-BB53-7A4A26012361.jpeg.a4271913d4b8ba0062c1685bb64139cc.jpeg

Max sun and then the 24-hour Davis VP2 Fan Aspiration Radiation Shield kicks in for maximum accuracy

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, chubbs said:

And there is more. Per NCDC, West Chester also changed the time of observation. At 8AM between 1952 and 1989, at 6PM between 1989 and 1992, and at midnight when a digital system was installed in 1998.

 

At 8am is not a big deal as we have shown before....minor to no issues.....6pm for 3 years....no big deal

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, chubbs said:

Meanwhile NOAA's bias adjustments are supported by hard evidence of changes at the COOP stations.

Can you show me the exact bias adjustment made to the Coatesville obs (not for all of Chester County) if there was a cool bias....why did NOAA with their adjustments for Chester County take the temperature lower than all stations in the county for many of those years?? Wouldn't they have adjusted the temps up for the cool bias??

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

At 8am is not a big deal as we have shown before....minor to no issues.....6pm for 3 years....no big deal

A little curious here, you identify as a “we”?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Max sun and then the 24-hour Davis VP2 Fan Aspiration Radiation Shield kicks in for maximum accuracy

Why does it only happen on days that are on track for 90?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, TimB said:

@ChescoWxcan you explain why your weather station completely defies diurnal temperature trends and consistently stalls or drops a couple degrees between noon and 1pm, especially on days when getting to 90 is a threat?49D1305B-BB6B-4637-ABC5-D5BFEBA326EF.jpeg.2efefbedeac337b8ab8735e9fc1e4aa6.jpeg

My rooftop (poorly sited) Tempest weather station also completely defies diurnal temperature trends and consistently stalls or drops a couple degrees between noon and 1pm see below for July 10th

image.thumb.png.e9c4bbdb9474a94ae18dc25640342f5e.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ChescoWx said:

My rooftop (poorly sited) Tempest weather station also completely defies diurnal temperature trends and consistently stalls or drops a couple degrees between noon and 1pm see below for July 10th

image.thumb.png.e9c4bbdb9474a94ae18dc25640342f5e.png

I mean, you’re (plural) admitting you (plural) have a feature on your (plural) weather stations that doctors the temperatures, so this doesn’t surprise me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ChescoWx said:

All about (plural) accuracy (plural) and in plurality of stations (plural) LOL!!!!!

I don’t have an issue with you having multiple weather stations, I have an issue with you using “we” (plural) when talking about yourself (singular).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   1 member

×
×
  • Create New...