Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Hey Charlie,

 I looked and looked at this and still can’t see how this doesn’t have errors. What am I missing? Am I having a brain fart? Is this the # of days within March 1-22, 2026, with highs of 80+?

 I came back and looked again to see if my brain had been missing something. I still don’t see how a good portion of the #s on the map aren’t off. Is this mislabeled?

 

I believe that's the ranking, not the number of days.

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I believe that's the ranking, not the number of days.

Thanks, Don. Now it makes sense if the words “ranking of” are added before # of days of 80+.

@chubbs

[bluewave]

 

 

[chubbs]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Hey Charlie,

 I looked and looked at this and still can’t see how this doesn’t have errors. What am I missing? Am I having a brain fart? Is this the # of days within March 1-22, 2026, with highs of 80+?

 I came back and looked again to see if my brain had been missing something. I still don’t see how a good portion of the #s on the map aren’t off. Is this mislabeled?

 

I should have been clearer. The chart I posted is the ranking of the number of days over 80, with #1 being the highest. Below is the number of 80+ days on which the ranking is based.

 

[GaWx]

In addition to Fairbanks, cities such as Anchorage and Yellowknife, NW Territories as well as the area in between and surrounding have a chance to have their all time record coldest Marches. That’s ~2,000 miles long and ~400 miles wide area or ~800K square miles, which is ~18% of the combined square miles in Canada and Alaska or ~25% of the size of the lower 48!

 Does anyone have a link to monthly records for Canadian cities and more specifically Yellowknife? Anyone have a link to maps showing historic temperature anomalies by month for Canada like we have for the US?

 Yellowknife in March of 2026:

Mean temp March 1-23: -26C

Normal for entire month: -16C

March 2026 so far:

https://www.predictwind.com/weather/canada/northwest-territories/yellowknife/march

 

Normals in C:

https://weatherspark.com/y/2362/Average-Weather-in-Yellowknife-Northwest-Territories-Canada-Year-Round

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

In addition to Fairbanks, cities such as Anchorage and Yellowknife, NW Territories as well as the area in between and surrounding have a chance to have their all time record coldest Marches. That’s ~2,000 miles long and ~400 miles wide area or ~800K square miles, which is ~18% of the combined square miles in Canada and Alaska or ~25% of the size of the lower 48!

 Does anyone have a link to monthly records for Canadian cities and more specifically Yellowknife? Anyone have a link to maps showing historic temperature anomalies by month for Canada like we have for the US?

 Yellowknife in March of 2026:

Mean temp March 1-23: -26C

Normal for entire month: -16C

March 2026 so far:

https://www.predictwind.com/weather/canada/northwest-territories/yellowknife/march

 

Normals in C:

https://weatherspark.com/y/2362/Average-Weather-in-Yellowknife-Northwest-Territories-Canada-Year-Round

Here's Yellowknife's coldest March:

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/monthly_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|2013-01-17&dlyRange=1942-07-01|2013-01-16&mlyRange=1942-01-01|2007-11-01&climate_id=2204100&Prov=NT&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2026&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&Month=3&Day=23&txtStationName=yellowknife&timeframe=3&Year=1964

That translates into a monthly mean temperature of -17.6°F.

 

 

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's Yellowknife's coldest March:

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/monthly_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|2013-01-17&dlyRange=1942-07-01|2013-01-16&mlyRange=1942-01-01|2007-11-01&climate_id=2204100&Prov=NT&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2026&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&Month=3&Day=23&txtStationName=yellowknife&timeframe=3&Year=1964

That translates into a monthly mean temperature of -17.6°F.

 

 

Thanks, Don! This tells me that Yellowknife won’t be as cold this month as it was in March of 1964.
 
 Unlike 2026, that month was post El Nino, opposite of 2026. That month was also quite cold further N, N of 80N (<-30C):

 

Compare that to the current March so far, which is ~-20C or >10C warmer!!

 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[GaWx]

 It looks like that finally Phoenix didn’t 100. It was “only” 99 today.

[donsutherland1]

The most extreme March heatwave on record in the United States is now concluding. Additional monthly records were set today. Below is a selection of March records that matched or beat April records during the unprecedented heatwave.

[GaWx]

Coldest ever recorded in March anywhere on the globe occurred yesterday in Vostok, Antarctica with -76.4C or -105.5F!

 
https://www.facebook.com/MikeCollierWx/photos/big-time-coldearlier-today-vostok-station-in-antarctica-recorded-a-temperature-o/1462495788561020/?

[bluewave]

 

 

[chubbs]

Solar uptake continued to accelerate in Africa in the last month before the energy crisis. 

[GaWx]

On 3/24/2026 at 11:21 AM, GaWx said:

In addition to Fairbanks, cities such as Anchorage and Yellowknife, NW Territories as well as the area in between and surrounding have a chance to have their all time record coldest Marches. That’s ~2,000 miles long and ~400 miles wide area or ~800K square miles, which is ~18% of the combined square miles in Canada and Alaska or ~25% of the size of the lower 48!

 Does anyone have a link to monthly records for Canadian cities and more specifically Yellowknife? Anyone have a link to maps showing historic temperature anomalies by month for Canada like we have for the US?

 Yellowknife in March of 2026:

Mean temp March 1-23: -26C

Normal for entire month: -16C

March 2026 so far:

https://www.predictwind.com/weather/canada/northwest-territories/yellowknife/march

 

Normals in C:

https://weatherspark.com/y/2362/Average-Weather-in-Yellowknife-Northwest-Territories-Canada-Year-Round

Followup:

Fairbanks is progged to have its coldest DJFM on record with it ~-13.1F!

The current coldest DJFM:

1965-6: -12.9F El Niño 

1970-1: -11.6F La Niña 

1933-4: -11.1F La Niña 

1917-8: -10.6F La Niña

 By a margin of 2F, they’re progged to have their coldest March on record at ~-8.6F!

This feat is extra amazing because the Arctic has warmed the most due to GW!

Link to data that allowed me to calculate this out:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=afg

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

Followup:

Fairbanks is progged to have its coldest DJFM on record with it ~-13.1F!

The current coldest DJFM:

1965-6: -12.9F El Niño 

1970-1: -11.6F La Niña 

1933-4: -11.1F La Niña 

1917-8: -10.6F La Niña

 By a margin of 2F, they’re progged to have their coldest March on record at ~-8.6F!

This feat is extra amazing because the Arctic has warmed the most due to GW!

Link to data that allowed me to calculate this out:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=afg

Using a chart inspired by Jeff Berardelli's return-time charts, here's how Fairbanks would look for March 2026:

And December-March (cases prior to 1911-12 were excluded due to the number of missing days during the 1905-06 through 1910-11 period):

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Using a chart inspired by Jeff Berardelli's return-time charts, here's how Fairbanks would look for March 2026:

And December-March (cases prior to 1911-12 were excluded due to the number of missing days during the 1905-06 through 1910-11 period):

 

This record cold March at Fairbanks is even more amazing when you consider how much above normal it was in the Arctic (80+N) in March:

 

 You can see evidence of this stark contrast of cold anomalies to the warm anomalies to the north in the Arctic as well as to the south in the lower 48 on this for March 1-17:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Good contrast setting up between the SW, US and Alaska this Winter. A little more than typical index-based correlations. I wonder if such a thing will flux the PNA in future years.  

[forkyfork]

52 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This record cold March at Fairbanks is even more amazing when you consider how much above normal it was in the Arctic (80+N) in March:

 

 You can see evidence of this stark contrast of cold anomalies to the warm anomalies to the north in the Arctic as well as to the south in the lower 48 on this for March 1-17:

 let's see that map with the heat wave included

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 let's see that map with the heat wave included

 I don’t have it going later than 3/17. I got that 3/1-17 from another source as I didn’t produce the map. Of course, the full March will be warmer. Example (looking at Phoenix): 3/1-17 was +9 but 3/1-31 should be ~+12. I know where to find the lower 48 map after the month is over.

 Where can one get the up to date month to date map?