Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[LibertyBell]

https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1914995234892546508

 

NEW - Experiments to "dim sunlight to fight global warming" will be given the green light by the British government within weeks.

https://t.co/ioBL0llDmR

[TheClimateChanger]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1914995234892546508

 

NEW - Experiments to "dim sunlight to fight global warming" will be given the green light by the British government within weeks.

https://t.co/ioBL0llDmR

Not sure how I feel about this. On the one hand, states like Pennsylvania and New York have been greatly harmed by the advent of air conditioning and the anti-labor policies of the southern United States (which have drawn capital southward due to lower wages, less benefits, etc). Moreover, the south was responsible for the death of 400,000 Americans just 160 years ago, the bulk coming from states like New York and Pennsylvania, and have never received appropriate punishment (IMO) for that crime. A great amelioration of the climate of New York and Pennsylvania is ongoing which should be a boon to the region. But instead we are going to block out the sun so that Texas, Arizona, and Florida will be better off. And you know who is going to pay for it? All of us, rather than the lion's share falling on places that stand to benefit the most. We'll probably end up subsidizing their insurance as well.

I say let states like Arizona, Texas, Florida etc. handle it. They hate federal involvement anyways - let alone international cooperation. So let them come up with their own solutions.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1914995234892546508

 

NEW - Experiments to "dim sunlight to fight global warming" will be given the green light by the British government within weeks.

https://t.co/ioBL0llDmR

That’s exciting! I hope the experiments are successful.

[GaWx]

On 4/22/2025 at 6:20 AM, donsutherland1 said:

It very likely has far more to do with Southern Atlantic Convergence Zone dynamics than what JB hypothesizes. After all, JB uses the same explanation to argue for overall ocean warming when, in fact, surface temperatures have warmed faster than deep water (2000 meters and below) temperatures.

A good paper on the topic that is likely relevant here is: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-022-06195-3

Why do y’all think the OISST anomaly for the Atlantic MDR (10-20N, 20-85W), which covers 3 million sq miles, has cooled 1.5C/2.7F during the last year? Why has it cooled 0.85C/1.5F during just the last 3 months?

@chubbs

[chubbs]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

Why do y’all think the OISST anomaly for the Atlantic MDR (10-20N, 20-85W), which covers 3 million sq miles, has cooled 1.5C/2.7F during the last year? Why has it cooled 0.85C/1.5F during just the last 3 months?

@chubbs

I haven't been following, but there have been unusually strong NE trades in the Atlantic MDR for the past 3 months which would cause upwelling. The mid-Atlantic subtropical ridge looks stronger than normal.

[donsutherland1]

New Study: Rapid changes in temperature have become more common as the climate has warmed

Abstract:

Rapid temperature flips are sudden shifts from extreme warm to cold or vice versa–both challenge humans and ecosystems by leaving a very short time to mitigate two contrasting extremes, but are yet to be understood. Here, we provide a global assessment of rapid temperature flips from 1961 to 2100. Warm-to-cold flips favorably follow wetter and cloudier conditions, while cold-to-warm flips exhibit an opposite feature. Of the global areas defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, over 60% have experienced more frequent, intense, and rapid flips since 1961, and this trend will expand to most areas in the future. During 2071–2100 under SSP5-8.5, we detect increases of 6.73–8.03% in flip frequency (relative to 1961–1990), 7.16–7.32% increases in intensity, and 2.47–3.24% decreases in transition duration. Global population exposure will increase over onefold, which is exacerbated in low-income countries (4.08–6.49 times above the global average). Our findings underscore the urgency to understand and mitigate the accelerating hazard flips under global warming.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-58544-5

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, chubbs said:

I haven't been following, but there have been unusually strong NE trades in the Atlantic MDR for the past 3 months which would cause upwelling. The mid-Atlantic subtropical ridge looks stronger than normal.

The trade winds and dominant circulations are almost certainly responsible for the cooling of SSTs.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

Why do y’all think the OISST anomaly for the Atlantic MDR (10-20N, 20-85W), which covers 3 million sq miles, has cooled 1.5C/2.7F during the last year? Why has it cooled 0.85C/1.5F during just the last 3 months?

@chubbs

It’s all relative, in that the water hasn’t cooled, it just hasn’t warmed at the normal seasonal rate.

Upwelling from trade winds in the MDR do not change OHC as much however as it’s mixing surface water to relatively shallow depths when compared to inside a hurricane. 10 foot seas in a 25 knot trade wind vs 50 foot seas in 100 knot hurricane winds. If the trades die down during the period of maximum solar insulation in June and July we could easily see a quick reversal. 

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s all relative, in that the water hasn’t cooled, it just hasn’t warmed at the normal seasonal rate.

Upwelling from trade winds in the MDR do not change OHC as much however as it’s mixing surface water to relatively shallow depths when compared to inside a hurricane. 10 foot seas in a 25 knot trade wind vs 50 foot seas in 100 knot hurricane winds. If the trades die down during the period of maximum solar insulation in June and July we could easily see a quick reversal. 

Indeed, while the MDR anomalies have continued cooling, the actual temp has actually warmed 0.2C since March 8th:

[calm_days]

it is always surprising to see very hot temperatures occurring next to the warm front, regardless of it being a warm front. 

I have enough memories from being younger that thermal behavior was not like this, but i don't want to assume anything.

For many years now there have been so many instances of the hottest thermal activity existing in ways that appear isolated, at higher latitude due to strong warm fronts. But did this actually used to happen as well ??

[Typhoon Tip]

They’ve been getting scientific attention, different means to describe amid the ambit but ‘heat burst’ and ‘synergistic heat events’ even ‘ heat bombs’ to name a few  When they occur … realized temperatures will often exceed guidance/leading indicators some times by as much as 2 or even 3 standard deviations…

The frequency of these has been increasing throughout the world over the last 2 decades. 

Im not sure if the heat up there straddling the borders is of synergistic nature … but it admittedly has that look. 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They’ve been getting scientific attention, different means to describe amid the ambit but ‘heat burst’ and ‘synergistic heat events’ even ‘ heat bombs’ to name a few  When they occur … realized temperatures will often exceed guidance/leading indicators some times by as much as 2 or even 3 standard deviations…

The frequency of these has been increasing throughout the world over the last 2 decades. 

Im not sure if the heat up there straddling the borders is of synergistic nature … but it admittedly has that look. 

189 degrees is the highest one I've seen

140 degrees in Coppen Texas caused the burning of crops, trees and even doors!

I love tracking these very rare events!

Also look up Megacryoicymeteors !! These are not from airplanes and happened even before airplanes existed. Ice chunks the size of elephants falling for several days!!

[ChescoWx]

On 4/25/2025 at 6:49 AM, donsutherland1 said:

New Study: Rapid changes in temperature have become more common as the climate has warmed

Abstract:

Rapid temperature flips are sudden shifts from extreme warm to cold or vice versa–both challenge humans and ecosystems by leaving a very short time to mitigate two contrasting extremes, but are yet to be understood. Here, we provide a global assessment of rapid temperature flips from 1961 to 2100. Warm-to-cold flips favorably follow wetter and cloudier conditions, while cold-to-warm flips exhibit an opposite feature. Of the global areas defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, over 60% have experienced more frequent, intense, and rapid flips since 1961, and this trend will expand to most areas in the future. During 2071–2100 under SSP5-8.5, we detect increases of 6.73–8.03% in flip frequency (relative to 1961–1990), 7.16–7.32% increases in intensity, and 2.47–3.24% decreases in transition duration. Global population exposure will increase over onefold, which is exacerbated in low-income countries (4.08–6.49 times above the global average). Our findings underscore the urgency to understand and mitigate the accelerating hazard flips under global warming.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-58544-5

35 (70% of) U.S. states recorded their “all-time” high May temperature records before color TV in 1960!  Of that subset, 21 of them were set over a century ago.  In 1934, 10 states set their “all-time” May monthly high temperature records. In 1895 and 1911, seven and six states, respectively, set theirs.

[TheClimateChanger]

One thing that's come to my attention. There's this meme that NOAA is jacking up the recent raw temperatures promoted by individuals like @ChescoWx. This appears to be a total fabrication. In fact, when I examine the raw data and compare it to the reported values, there is a significant chilling effect being introduced to observed temperatures.

For instance, here is the observed data for the Southwest Plateau division of Pennsylvania in July 2020, showing a mean of 76.3F. This would easily break the record for the month of July.

But if you look at Climate at a Glance, it's been chilled all the way down to 75.0F!

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Same story in @ChescoWx's neck of the woods. 

Not as bad, but the observed mean of 79.3F gets artifically chilled to 78.8F.

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

One thing that's come to my attention. There's this meme that NOAA is jacking up the recent raw temperatures promoted by individuals like @ChescoWx. This appears to be a total fabrication. In fact, when I examine the raw data and compare it to the reported values, there is a significant chilling effect being introduced to observed temperatures.

For instance, here is the observed data for the Southwest Plateau division of Pennsylvania in July 2020, showing a mean of 76.3F. This would easily break the record for the month of July.

But if you look at Climate at a Glance, it's been chilled all the way down to 75.0F!

 

 

I have no idea what's going on with the Southwestern Plateau data. I was looking at different years and it's typically chilled, but it used to be less of a chilling. Recent years have been heavily chilled. And it makes zero sense. There are more stations now, with more high elevation sites. There is no longer a city office, which ironically is the source of historic "official" records, but it was a HUGE warm outlier - typically 2-4F warmer than lower elevation sites. And there were fewer stations being averaged then, so it would warm bias the mean. The reasonable conclusion is past temperatures ought to be chilled more than current temperatures, but recent years show the exact opposite. It looks like whatever adjustments are being made are obscuring the warming trend, and then liars are making the exact opposite claim.

[TheClimateChanger]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I have no idea what's going on with the Southwestern Plateau data. I was looking at different years and it's typically chilled, but it used to be less of a chilling. Recent years have been heavily chilled. And it makes zero sense. There are more stations now, with more high elevation sites. There is no longer a city office, which ironically is the source of historic "official" records, but it was a HUGE warm outlier - typically 2-4F warmer than lower elevation sites. And there were fewer stations being averaged then, so it would warm bias the mean. The reasonable conclusion is past temperatures ought to be chilled more than current temperatures, but recent years show the exact opposite. It looks like whatever adjustments are being made are obscuring the warming trend, and then liars are making the exact opposite claim.

Compare this to 1988. The reported value is chilled only 0.3F, versus 1.3F for 2020. And we can see the impact of faulty thermometers (HO-83) with PIT showing a huge warm bias in that era, with temperatures matched only a couple of lock & dam sites [at the lowest elevations of the region].

[TheClimateChanger]

It looks like @ChescoWx's claim is only true when you include data from personal weather stations and recently opened mesonet sites in the mix, but if you compare the actual divisional means from the reported observation sites, I'm having a hard time finding these big warming adjustments that are often claimed?

[ChescoWx]

50 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It looks like @ChescoWx's claim is only true when you include data from personal weather stations and recently opened mesonet sites in the mix, but if you compare the actual divisional means from the reported observation sites, I'm having a hard time finding these big warming adjustments that are often claimed?

Nope only data from NWS coops and NWS mesonet....just the raw facts as always!

[ChescoWx]

Below shows the clear impact of the introduced altered NCEI adjustments to the below May actual average temperatures for Chester County PA. To put a fine point on the below analysis. Incredibly NCEI chose to chill 73 of the first 76 years or 96% of all May months in the years from 1895 through 1970!  They have now over the last 54 years 1971 through 2024 chosen to warm the data in 40 of those 54 years or 74% of these years. This is a textbook example of how altering the data helps give the desired answer to assist the many Cyclical Climate Deniers. That blue actual average temperature line is actually cooling while the red altered data is clearly warming.....

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Below shows the clear impact of the introduced altered NCEI adjustments to the below May actual average temperatures for Chester County PA. To put a fine point on the below analysis. Incredibly NCEI chose to chill 73 of the first 76 years or 96% of all May months in the years from 1895 through 1970!  They have now over the last 54 years 1971 through 2024 chosen to warm the data in 40 of those 54 years or 74% of these years. This is a textbook example of how altering the data helps give the desired answer to assist the many Cyclical Climate Deniers. That blue actual average temperature line is actually cooling while the red altered data is clearly warming.....

I pulled all of the published numbers for Division 9 since 1957 for the month of July, which is when they began publishing in the current divisional format, and there is basically no difference in trend from the published numbers and the values reported on NCEI's Climate at a Glance. I don't see the big warming of recent data that you claim in these values, or in the Chester County May temperature figures you gave above. The earlier years are subject to some adjustment, most notably for Time of Observation bias, but I don't see a big nefarious warming of recent years?

Climate at a Glance - Pennsylvania's Division 9

Original Published Values in Climatological Data - Pennsylvania's Division 9

Pittsburgh International Airport

[ChescoWx]

42 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I pulled all of the published numbers for Division 9 since 1957 for the month of July, which is when they began publishing in the current divisional format, and there is basically no difference in trend from the published numbers and the values reported on NCEI's Climate at a Glance. I don't see the big warming of recent data that you claim in these values, or in the Chester County May temperature figures you gave above. The earlier years are subject to some adjustment, most notably for Time of Observation bias, but I don't see a big nefarious warming of recent years?

ClimateChanger not looking hard enough! Let's take a peek at July since you bring that month up!!  Welp = even more egregious altered data in July. NCEI chilled a whopping 74 of the 76 years between 1895 and 1970....and of course have now turned around and warmed 46 of the last 54 years from 1971 thru 2024. And my oh my what a difference these little alterations make to the climate story of Chester County PA!! Red is the altered....look at that warming - but where the heck did it go without those wee little adjustments??? We are actually cooling in July!!!

[ChescoWx]

Just in from NOAA no global warming/climate change in the USA Since 2012!!

[rcostell]

45 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

ClimateChanger not looking hard enough! Let's take a peek at July since you bring that month up!!  Welp = even more egregious altered data in July. NCEI chilled a whopping 74 of the 76 years between 1895 and 1970....and of course have now turned around and warmed 46 of the last 54 years from 1971 thru 2024. And my oh my what a difference these little alterations make to the climate story of Chester County PA!! Red is the altered....look at that warming - but where the heck did it go without those wee little adjustments??? We are actually cooling in July!!!

Yet another Chester County bicker session in the wrong thread.   Seems futile to object? 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

ClimateChanger not looking hard enough! Let's take a peek at July since you bring that month up!!  Welp = even more egregious altered data in July. NCEI chilled a whopping 74 of the 76 years between 1895 and 1970....and of course have now turned around and warmed 46 of the last 54 years from 1971 thru 2024. And my oh my what a difference these little alterations make to the climate story of Chester County PA!! Red is the altered....look at that warming - but where the heck did it go without those wee little adjustments??? We are actually cooling in July!!!

Well, at least for Pennsylvania's Division 9, I don't see that trend. Since 1957, 54 years show a cooling adjustment, 10 warming, and 2 years are exactly the same as published. To be honest, the warming of the 1980s appears to be an artifact of a pairwise homogenization adjustment - perhaps some sort of preferential treatment is given to first order stations. It looks like PIT had a warm bias, so the numbers were adjusted upwards a bit to fall more in line with PIT. The adjustment probably should be in the opposite direction, as the mean value is probably inflated from the apparent warm bias. Which is likely partially due to the HO-83, although the warm bias seems to predate its installation. Some of the recent Julys (2020 & 2021) have among the largest "chilling" adjustments.

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Well, at least for Pennsylvania's Division 9, I don't see that trend. Since 1957, 54 years show a cooling adjustment, 10 warming, and 2 years are exactly the same as published. To be honest, the warming of the 1980s appears to be an artifact of the pairwise homogenization - perhaps some sort of preferential treatment is given to first order stations. It looks like PIT had a warm bias, so the numbers were adjusted upwards a bit to fall more in line with PIT. The adjustment probably should be in the opposite direction, as the mean value is probably inflated from the apparent warm bias. Which is likely partially due to the HO-83, although the warm bias seems to predate its installation. Some of the recent Julys (2020 & 2021) have among the largest "chilling" adjustments.

I didn't look at Pennsylvania's Division 3 [Southeastern Piedmont] but I did notice the most recent Julys were showing lower on NCEI's Climate at a Glance than the published figures.

[ChescoWx]

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I didn't look at Pennsylvania's Division 3 [Southeastern Piedmont] but I did notice the most recent Julys were showing lower on NCEI's Climate at a Glance than the published figures.

Every single July year since 1994 here in Chester County has been warmed with the NCEI alterations

[TheClimateChanger]

18 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Every single July year since 1994 here in Chester County has been warmed with the NCEI alterations

What are the stations in each year?

[ChescoWx]

37 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

What are the stations in each year?

[chubbs]

50 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

What are the stations in each year?

Here are the stations by year. What Chesco call's "Actual" is far from it. There is a big change in the station population from warm to cool, towns to rural, south and east to more centrally located, with more stations in the cooler north and west section. Most of the stations have short records and don't provide any climate info.