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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2019 OBS Thread

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Really the only wild card seems to be how well we recover from this morning rain and cloud cover for today's severe threat. Mount Holly continues to become more and more concerned on their 8am update:

 

Additionally, given the fairly
quick movement of the line of showers/storms, concern continues
to increase that the post-storm environment will quickly
recover/destabilize to support a potentially significant severe
threat this afternoon/evening, especially south of I-78.

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29 minutes ago, Newman said:

Really the only wild card seems to be how well we recover from this morning rain and cloud cover for today's severe threat. Mount Holly continues to become more and more concerned on their 8am update:

 

Additionally, given the fairly
quick movement of the line of showers/storms, concern continues
to increase that the post-storm environment will quickly
recover/destabilize to support a potentially significant severe
threat this afternoon/evening, especially south of I-78.

Yeah if the sun comes out later this morning and the temp shoots up, it will be a soupy mess out there and ripe for storms.... although that remnant MCS line sortof fizzled as it moved east.  So far have 0.12" from it.

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RAP supercell composite is nuts for our area later. Just need the sun to come out and I'll believe this:

rap_2019-05-28-14Z_009_44.889_277.867_38

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7 minutes ago, Newman said:

RAP supercell composite is nuts for our area later. Just need the sun to come out and I'll believe this:

rap_2019-05-28-14Z_009_44.889_277.867_38

suns right on the doorstep it appears...

 

20191481711_GOES16-ABI-ne-GEOCOLOR-1200x

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Tornado watch has been issued:

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Western New Jersey
     Extreme east central Ohio
     Pennsylvania
     The extreme northern West Virginia Panhandle

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2 inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected this
   afternoon from Ohio into Pennsylvania, and storms will spread
   generally eastward through this evening.  The storm environment will
   be favorable for supercells capable of producing large hail and
   damaging winds.  A more favorable environment for tornadoes is
   expected across northern and eastern Pennsylvania into western New
   Jersey as the low levels destabilize.

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Mesoscale discussion...

 

Quote
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop this afternoon and will
   likely become severe. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few
   tornadoes are possible. A tornado watch will likely be issued in the
   next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...A belt of enhanced mid-level westerly flow of 50-70
   knots is stretching across the Great Lakes into the
   Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A shortwave trough embedded within this
   zonal flow currently entering the Great Lakes region will move
   eastward throughout the day helping to provide forcing for ascent
   and strengthen deep layer shear. A surface low is located just
   east-southeast of Buffalo, NY with a warm front stretching to the
   southeast through northeast PA and central NJ. This warm front
   should lift east-northeast with the surface low forecast to track
   generally eastward. The Cu field is becoming increasingly agitated
   within the warm sector and storms are likely to develop in the next
   couple of hours.

   Storms are likely to develop across west/central PA and move
   east-southeast during the afternoon and evening into portions of
   NJ/MD/DE/southern NY. Supercell development is likely and few storms
   may remain discrete. Low-level veering is better to south/east
   across the region, but flow/shear is stronger farther to the north.
   Large hail is possible given forecast MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg and
   effective bulk shear of 35-50 knots. Additionally, strong synoptic
   winds and steepening low-level lapse rates, especially where strong
   insolation occurs, will increase the severe wind threat. Tornadoes
   are possible as well, especially for storms that exhibit more
   southeast movement, which will maximize SRH per observed/forecast
   soundings.

 

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sun is out in Trenton. Should see several hours of warming. dew point already 68F. Temp is shooting up as well up to 77F up from 72F under the clouds. 

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This could be one interesting evening. The discrete supercells moving in a SE motion will only help with rotation.

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53 minutes ago, Newman said:

This could be one interesting evening. The discrete supercells moving in a SE motion will only help with rotation.

That cell moving through Schuylkill has its sights on you and I

 

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Just now, penndotguy said:

That cell moving through Schuylkill has its sights on you and I

 

Yeah decent rotation and a nice hail core. Should bear down on western Berks soon. Get ready!

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1 minute ago, Newman said:

Yeah decent rotation and a nice hail core. Should bear down on western Berks soon. Get ready!

They have a warning, its getting awfully dark over thatway

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Just now, penndotguy said:

Im right in the center of that cone

You might get cored. It appears to be slightly weakening at least. But still the T-storm warning is for ping pong ball sized hail.

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3 hours ago, Newman said:

RAP supercell composite is nuts for our area later. Just need the sun to come out and I'll believe this:

rap_2019-05-28-14Z_009_44.889_277.867_38

Looks pretty accurate when you see how the radar looks now. Got a MIL in upper Darby who thinks nothing is ever gonna happen there. Hope she is paying attention to what's over the state right now.

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1 minute ago, Newman said:

You might get cored. It appears to be slightly weakening at least. But still the T-storm warning is for ping pong ball sized hail.

Yeah it looks like another cell on it's heels 

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